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To: Red Badger

I think they are making the right call for now. What I would do is issue non-mandatory evacuation suggestions for the low-lying areas. The storm is still days away. If the cone of uncertainty closes, then they can get more serious about things.

The storm is likely to weaken somewhat. It is not projected to remain Cat 5 at Florida. If a storm with 185 m.p.h. sustained winds (gusts over 200 m.p.h.) is coming at you, you best leave. Nothing will remain standing. You will die if you remain in your home. This isn’t going to remain that strong at the Florida coastline. Eyewall replacement cycles and so forth will take a toll on it. Sometimes they don’t recover from these cycles.

However, a Cat 4 is still very dangerous. The wind damage cannot be predicted. It is now known that strong hurricanes produce mini-cyclones (almost like a supercell) that rotate around the eyewall. These can produce extreme wind gusts that far exceed the sustained wind speed. Look up Harvey Rockport damage. The wind damage virtually demolished that town. Brick homes demolished. Cinder-block laundromat leveled. RV’s overturned. Survivors say it was much worse than any other hurricane and the wind was much worse than they thought. You can’t always predict damage based on category.


85 posted on 09/06/2017 5:30:06 PM PDT by Vaden (First they came for the Confederates... Next they came for Washington... Then they came...)
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To: Vaden

Yes, people tend to forget that along with hurricanes come TORNADOES that spin off from the storms in the bands! The tornadoes can level anything in their path, snapping huge pine trees like toothpicks!.................I know, I’ve seen it!......................


101 posted on 09/07/2017 6:09:45 AM PDT by Red Badger (Road Rage lasts 5 minutes. Road Rash lasts 5 months!.....................)
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