[Ray76]

Hurricane Irma Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT41 KNHC 312032
TCDAT1

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
500 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2017

Irma has become an impressive hurricane with intense eyewall
convection surrounding a small eye. Satellite estimates continue to
rapidly rise, and the Dvorak classifications from both TAFB & SAB
support an initial wind speed of 100 kt. This is a remarkable 50-kt
increase from yesterday at this time.

Microwave and satellite data suggest that an eyewall replacement
cycle could be starting. This isn't surprising given how small the
eye is, and will probably be the first of many eyewall cycles for
this hurricane. Overall, Irma should be in a low-shear environment
for several days, with the intensity controlled by eyewall cycles
and the moderately warm SSTs along the path. Thus the forecast
intensity is leveled off for the next 2 days. After the weekend,
Irma should be moving over much warmer water, with SSTs forecast to
be 29C at the end of the period. All indications are for Irma to be
strengthening by the end of the forecast period, with the NHC
prediction adjusted slightly upward from the previous one, in line
with the extremely low pressures forecast by the global and regional
hurricane models at that time.

Irma continues moving west-northwestward, now at about 10 kt.
There has been no change to the forecast philosophy, with the
hurricane likely to turn westward and west-southwestward over the
next few days due to a building ridge over the central Atlantic. At
long range, however, model guidance is not in good agreement on the
strength of the ridge, resulting in some significant north-south
differences in the global models. I am inclined to stay on the
southwestern side of the model guidance, given the rather consistent
forecasts of the ECMWF and its ensemble. In addition, the strongest
members of the recent ensembles are on the southern side on the
consensus, giving some confidence in that approach.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 17.3N 34.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 17.8N 36.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 18.2N 38.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 18.3N 40.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 17.9N 42.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 16.8N 47.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 16.0N 52.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 16.5N 56.5W 120 KT 140 MPH

$$ Forecaster Blake

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/312032.shtml?

[Red Badger]

That was fast!...............

[Ray76]

Expected to be a Cat 4 on day 5

[MagUSNRET]

Pick your poison, you want me to put on the coffee pot for you, or should I buy more Scotch? This may be a LONG weekend! :-)

[colorado tanker]

Looks like it’s headed for the Antilles.

[cyclotic]

It looks to be only 2500 miles away from me. I’m off to Home Depot for some plywood and water.

[4Liberty]

Oh no.... 😟

[yield 2 the right]

The last thing we need is a hurricane(never mind a major)anywhere in the Atlantic right after Harvey...

[jjotto]

Joe Bastadi at Weatherbell Daily Update says Irma is a big deal and headed for Puerto Rico and then the SE US.

https://www.weatherbell.com/#icon

[scroll down the page]

[I want the USA back]

They couldn’t blame Trump for Harvey, but they’ll try again for Irma.

[MplsSteve]

Wow, this early on, I think it’d be hard to even project the path of a storm like that. Maybe by Labor Day, we’ll have a better idea.

IIRC, Joe Bastardi does have a pretty good track record of predicting the paths of tropical storms.

Like I said, maybe we’ll all have a better idea by Labor Day. Hopefully, Irma will take a spin northwards and hang out more in the Atlantic Ocean and affect only ships.

[SandRat]

Muther nature’s dis functional family, first Harvey NOW Irma, OH BROTHER!!!!!

[WVMnteer]

Evacuate all of Florida. Now.

Don’t make the mistake Houston did.

[Chgogal]

Hurricane Ping! : (

[SoFloFreeper]

South Florida Water Management District sfwmd.gov, has lots of models on its site.

Most of these show it turning north.

I pray it does.

upload photo album

[Ray76]

An informed analysis of the storm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2XWRaeQeak

[OrangeHoof]

Where it makes landfall depends on which side of Port-au-Potty it passes. North of it, and it crawls up the Atlantic. South of it, it could veer along the same track as Harvey.

[rodguy911]

If you go to the NRL tropical cyclone page it gives the best your will get in tracking,the Navy is seldom wrong.
As of 9/6 they have it due east of Puerto Rico,after that who knows,their tracking ends there.

[novemberslady]

bkmk

[RayChuang88]

Everywhere from Key West all the way to Cape Cod need to keep an eye (pun not intended here) out for Irma. We could have a repeat of Sandy from 2012 if the conditions are right--and would be particularly destructive if it takes a direct beeline for the New York City area.

[Leep]

Does this confirm global changing climate warming?