Yikes: Kelli Ward 47, Jeff Flake 21 in Arizona primary poll (Way outside margin of error)

Hotair ^ | 08/29/2017 | AllahPundit

[SeekAndFind]

Right, right, “it’s just one poll.” But it isn’t. A few weeks ago, PPP had Flake’s approval rating in Arizona a breezy 18/63 overall, including 22/57 among Republicans. JMC Analytics, the firm responsible for this new survey, has him at 22/67 among Republicans. So intense is anti-Flake sentiment among Arizona GOPers in the wake of his feud with Trump that Kelli Ward, a comparatively weak candidate, has more than doubled him up here.

It’d be unusual for a youngish incumbent not to run for reelection in the belief that he can’t possibly win. U.S. senators are, by definition, good at running statewide races and Flake will have plenty of establishment financial support. He’s also a man on a mission: He believes he and other conservatarians are battling populists for the soul of the GOP so he’s probably less inclined than the average incumbent to surrender in the belief that it’s not worth fighting for his job. And yet, if the polling continues to look like this over the next few months, pressure on him to quit may grow even from some of his supporters. If he looks like a sure loser either in the primary or the general, better that he step aside and let the party nominate a solid Republican with a chance of winning.

By a three-to-one margin, Arizona GOPers want anyone but Flake. And yes, the Trump feud is most definitely hurting him. Trump enjoys a 78/22 approval rating among Arizona Republicans, not blockbuster but solid enough to cause a disfavored incumbent like Flake lots of pain. Remember that tweet Trump fired at him a few weeks ago? JMC asked GOPers if it made them more or less likely to support the incumbent:

Fifty-six percent of Arizona Republicans say Trump’s endorsement would make them more likely to back a candidate versus 19 percent who say it’d make them less likely. Who do you think is winning that battle for the GOP’s soul?

Serious question: How does this dynamic change for Flake? It’s unthinkable that he and Trump would reconcile. It’s possible, I guess, that Trump’s own popularity will tank so sharply among Republicans that there’ll be no political price for being on his bad side, but that’s also almost unthinkable. Even a president who’s bottomed out nationally will probably still draw majority approval among his own party. The only obvious prospect for a turnaround for Flake is if the congressional GOP starts passing all sorts of major base-pleasing legislation. At the moment, that also appears virtually unthinkable.

Trump wants this war, too. Even if Flake started voting with him more often (and he already votes with him on nearly everything, including the Senate health-care bill), the president’s populist inner circle is eager to make an example of an establishmentarian. Flake is a target of both passion, given his frequent criticism of Trump, and of opportunity, in light of his weakness in Arizona. Trump can send a message to the Senate GOP by trying to knock him out, pour encourager les autres:

“Most members of Congress are arrogant, and until a scalp is actually taken they are going to continue to be defiant,” longtime Trump friend Roger Stone told The Hill. “All he needs to do is punish one incumbent and I think you’d see a sea-change.”…

“He is 100 percent correct to go after McCain, Flake, Murkowksi,” said Sam Nunberg, who worked as an aide to Trump’s 2016 campaign.

Nunberg also expressed the hope that Trump would be able to engineer the defeat of Collins in a GOP primary if she sought to become Maine’s governor.

You know what I think: Flake could always drop out of the Senate race, regroup, then run a kamikaze conservatarian primary challenge to Trump in 2020. He wouldn’t win but he’d force a solid one-quarter to one-third of the party to think hard about casting a vote of no confidence in the president by supporting him instead.

Exit question: Why did Sarah Palin sell her home in Arizona? She’s a populist and a friend of POTUS. She would have been well positioned to challenge Flake herself this year.

[cableguymn]

He has fewer years left above ground if what I hear about his brain cancer is true.

[MtnClimber]

Yes, he has an American Conservative Union rating of around 30% which means that on votes between freedom and tyranny, he votes 70 % for Tyranny. He is worse than many RATs.

[Jemian]

He will not last five years.

[vette6387]

“Trump enjoys a 78/22 approval rating among Arizona Republicans”

Still too many McCainiacs in AZ! Also a lot of military retirees. Just wonder if they are sticking by him because of his POW business?
And Flake can count on the Mormon vote and there are a lot of them in AZ as well.

[vette6387]

“McCain OWNS Arizona. If he runs, he will be elected again next time.”

I think Providence will intervene this time. Virtually no one lives more than a year after being diagnosed with the cancer he has. He may “own AZ” but he still has to be alive to run.

[vette6387]

Here's the straight story on Gilioblastoma. Mc Cain will have to be very, very lucky to be here through the end of next year, and that would be unusual. I just lost a good friend to this cancer. He had the very best of treatment and he lived about 9 months, with about half of that period of time bed ridden and slowly loosing his faculties. "Despite maximum treatment, the cancer usually recurs. The most common length of survival following diagnosis is 12 to 15 months, with fewer than 3% to 5% of people surviving longer than five years. Without treatment, survival is typically three months. It is the most common cancer that begins within the brain and the second most common brain tumor, after meningioma. About 3 per 100,000 people develop the disease a year. It most often begins around 64 years of age and occurs more commonly in males than females."

[RooRoobird20]

The despicable POS McCain must have run two dozen or more different campaign ads where He promised to repeal and replace Obamacare. He lied over and over again to voters, and that was a factor in getting him re-elected. He blatantly lied about making health insurance better.......then he got a class 4 brain tumor.

Cosmic justice.

[Trump Girl Kit Cat]

I had a neighbor who had the melanoma removed from his head, once the brain cancer was discovered he was gone in 5 months!!!

[onona]

A sea change ? I don't think so.

subversives just go deeper undercover.

The deep state will never change, submit, or surrender.

[Romans Nine]

Not sure about him having 5 more years on this earth.

[Parley Baer]

“He believes he and other conservatarians are battling populists for the soul of the GOP”

Nonsense. Flake is an open borders globalist. He said so himself.

[going hot]

Enjoying a margarita, thinking it could not happen to a more deserving Richard.

[grumpygresh]

Who has a higher rating? John McCain or John McCain’s tumor?

[Diana in Wisconsin]

“By a three-to-one margin, Arizona GOPers want anyone but Flake.”

Wheeeeeeeeee! Thank goodness! Go, Kelli! GO!

Best. Election. Ever. EVER!

It warms my HEART that We The People can FINALLY publicly acknowledge what’s been in our hearts for SO very long!

Your RINO & GOPe antics and Socialism-enabling IS NOT WANTED HERE IN AMERICA!

[EliRoom8]

It’s about time to look towards the primary of Corker in Tennessee. Any prospects yet?

[Diana in Wisconsin]

“He blatantly lied about making health insurance better...then he got a class 4 brain tumor.”

Yep. That Karma! She’ll kick your @ss! ;)

[Nipfan]

When will the primary be held?

[LongWayHome]

Not surprise....people have had it.

[alrea]

Your RINO & GOPe antics and Socialism-enabling IS NOT WANTED HERE IN AMERICA!

Rent a mob fake news is failing. Not even CNNazi can save the liberal establishment now.

[RooRoobird20]

I don’t believe the 78/22 approval/disapproval numbers, fake news poll.

McLiar threw a final campaign rally the week before election day last year. He had a big venue, one of the spring training ball parks in Mesa, which is a haven for Mormons. He held the rally at dinner time, advertised free food and beverages and Mitt Romney was the featured speaker. Approximately 150 people showed up. The turnout was humiliating.

Still, he lied about repealing Obamacare and his Rat opponent said her proudest vote as a House representative was her vote for Obamacare. A lot of Republicans pinched their noses and voted for him.