Posted on 06/09/2017 6:22:34 AM PDT by SkyPilot
Legendary investor Jim Rogers sat down with Business Insider CEO Henry Blodget on this week's episode of The Bottom Line. Rogers predicts a market crash in the next few years. One that he says will rival anything he has seen in his lifetime. Following is a transcript of the video.
Blodget: One of the things I’ve always admired about you as an investor is that you don’t talk about what should be. You figure out what is going to be and then, you do that. So what is going to be with respect to the stock market? What’s going to happen?
Rogers: I learned very early in my investing careers: I better not invest in what I want. I better invest in what’s happening in the world. Otherwise, I’ll be broke. Dead broke.Well, what’s going to happen is it’s going to continue. Some stocks in America are turning into a bubble. The bubble’s gonna come. Then it’s gonna collapse and you should be very worried. But Henry, this is good for you. Because someone has to report it. So you have job security. You’re a lucky soul.
Blodget: Well, yeah, TV ratings do seem to go up during crashes but then they completely disappear when everyone is obliterated, so no one is hoping for that. So when is this going to happen?
Rogers: Later this year or next.
Blodget: Later this year or next?
Rogers: Yeah, yeah, yeah. Write it down.
Blodget: And what will trigger it?
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Blodget: And how big a crash could we be looking at?
Rogers: It’s going to be the worst in your lifetime.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
That video is just hillarious.
Great question.
It's origens are from the 1987 crash.
It was supposed to prevent panic in the markets that had no real basis, but driven by fear.
Since then, it has morphed into something much more sinister and encompassing.
I watch it a couple of times a year. It cracks me up every time.
The sad part is that the child at the end, to me, represents genX, who are now in their 30’s.
i.e. it’s time to pay.
So has almost every single bank, investing firm, 401K managing firm, and the top blue chip companies.
I sold commercial RE in Seattle in the early 80’s. And yes, the Commercial RE part is part of what I’m implying in my posts. I’ve been following the success/demise of shopping malls for quite a while, now. I’m actually kind of surprised that they are still a thing.
I have noticed that all of the “off price” malls around me have a lot of vacancies.
Rogers: Well, that’s why I moved to Asia. My children speak Mandarin because of what’s coming.
LOL
Amazon is like the Sears & Roebuck catalog of antiquity except that you don’t get free outhouse paper.
True.
Car loans and credit card loans are also huge, but neither is as big as was the mortgage debt in 2008. However, mortgage debt has also risen dramatically. The auto loan bubble could be another "trigger."
The debt-bubble landmine Obama left for Trump
Cramer sure comes across as that way.
They figure they can get a hard left Dem majority and get impeachment and removal of Trump
The world has just become too small and the Globalist (who really run what we use to call the west) see total control in their grasp they will not give up
VAIPX
LOL! Amazon is nothing without its giant physical infrastructure. Retail is just moving inside a huge warehouse with robots doing the picking and cargo jets and trucks (and eventually, drones) doing the delivery.. No competitor can even come close to Amazon, right now - except maybe Walmart and Alibaba.
They'll peak and recede as all firms do. But there are hundreds of thousands of little Amazons out there already, and they aren't making a dent.
The Hawley Act simply made damage done in 1929 stagnant and done little to nothing to improve the situation.
A great book for the 1920 which goes into the land speculation and continued ups and downs of the period is ‘The Forgotten Men’ by Amity Shlaes. Very readable and it talks to the general public lack of understanding on the market effect. A fair part of the book goes over Florida and California property speculation (almost identical to 2008 in some ways).
There’s no doubt that the Fed could have done something and choose to make almost no action. Part of this (Shlaes book talks to this) were continual warnings that they gave Congress, the President, the banks, and the public. You get the impression that they wanted the public to suffer and remember this era. The Hawley Act had one big effect...taxes on imported goods (almost 20,000 items). All this did was convince business partners (other countries) to also crank up a taxation product on American goods. Thanks to idiots in the Senate....we simply made any hope in 1931 a lost cause. Then came the FDR crew, who worked hard to make sure the depression lasted a full decade.
There is a lot of truth to that.
And as the modern equivalent, it brings modern attributes:
1. Your credit card is on file. You simply check out and the stuff shows up.
2. you can order from your phone - hope your phone is password protected. :)
3. Stuff can show up in as little as an hour.
4. Have it shipped anywhere.
5. Free shipping
6. It sells virtually anything you want.
7. it is cheaper - sometimes by A LOT - than brick and mortar.
Trade was only 4% of GNP at the time. The Smoot-Hawley did nothing to worsen the Great Depression becasue it affected just a tiny portion of the overall economy. So let is go. It is a lie and an attempt to re-write history by globalist trade nuts.
RE: Amazon
I prefer to support local retailers. However, I live on an island in Alaska with about 3000 souls. Amazon Prime is a blessing if not an actual necessity.
BTW, Amazon stock (AMZN) is just a hair under $1000 a share today.
Yes, that was when I enjoyed looking up stocks in the paper, reading PE’s was a hobby on Sunday’s plus the Wall Street Journal was a subscription we had. A DOW 1,000 was a dream my father never saw. I told him about Walmart, Wendy’s, Southern Company etc. I was working for EG Hutton. I was upset when they closed. Honestly a client worth millions told me about SO. I recall we got Apple computers around 1981. Old MS DOS types.
Rodgers hopes suckers follow his hype.
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There’s a little hype there, for sure. They want clicks and sales. But I’ve lived through enough corrections and recessions to know that another one is coming soon, and it will likely be equivalent to, or worse than, 2008. Its inevitable and Rogers is right about one thing; it will come out of the blue.
Everyone will get hurt. Some more than others. Low beta battleships with sustainable earnings will ride out the storm with relatively minor losses and/or dividend cuts. Just my humble opinion.
“Yep. Sometimes we wake up to three or four feeding in our front yard. Foxes and Coyotes too. But I’ve never tried to eat one.”
It’s pretty amazing. We have a 10 point buck that wanders around in our back yard and a few does...in the Louisville suburbs. My wife won’t let me hunt them off the deck with a bow. LOL
When I was a kid, if you wanted to see deer, you went to the Zoo.
Year after year, the nation could not climb out of the pit.
1929: Wall Street collapse and banking sector failures.
1930/1931: Smoot-Hawley Act.
1931: Dust Bowl starts.
1932: Hoover tax rates fall into play.
1933: New Deal arrives.
1934: 10-percent GDP growth in one single year. Massive printing of money.
1935: More printed money, and social security arrives.
1936: New taxes via FDR and Congress arrive.
1937/1938: New mini-depression occurs and ends a year later.
1939/1940: Dust Bowl drought starts to disappear. 8-percent GDP growth each year.
1942: War starts and FDR has to relax industrial rules...allowing finally for exit to the depression.
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