Posted on 05/23/2017 10:42:58 AM PDT by blam
The US is preparing to attack North Korea, according to Geopolitical Futures founder George Friedman—setting the stage for a difficult, messy war with potentially catastrophic consequences.
Speaking Monday to a rapt audience at the 2017 Strategic Investment Conference in Orlando, Friedman said that while it is unlikely the US will take action before President Trump returns home at the weekend, North Korea’s actions appear to have “offered the US no alternative” to a clash.
According to Geopolitical Futures analysis, evidence is mounting that the enmity between the two is escalating to a point where war is inevitable.
Friedman revealed that on May 20, the USS Carl Vinson supercarrier and USS Ronald Reagan were both within striking distance of North Korea.
Additionally, more than 100 F16 aircraft are conducting daily exercises in the area, a tactic which foreshadowed the beginning of Desert Storm in 1991.
F35 aircraft have also been deployed to the area, and US government representatives will be briefing Guam on civil defense, terrorism, and Korea on May 31.
All of these strategic moves telegraph one outcome—conflict.
(snip)
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
“Imho, fighting a land war in Korea during the winter is a bad idea.”
5.56mm
Read the book Red Pheonix.Its all about a second Korean War.In it the plot required Freezing weather so the DPRK Armored Forces could attack south through the frozen Rice Paddy’s.
The north Korean Generals aren’t as skilled and knowledgable as the Millenium OPFOR generals. Kim has squashed much independence on the NK generals. South Korea would win at a cost.
There’s a reason it is called the Frozen Chosin.
I really don’t see it happening; Seoul is only about 35 miles south of the DMZ (in range of Nork Arty). The population of Seoul and the surrounding areas is about 25 million people. As soon as the balloon goes up, those 25 million people will try to head south. They would clog up all the roads heading south. On the Korean Thanksgiving, people from Seoul would head south to Pusan (southern tip about 200 miles from Seoul). Normal driving time was about 4 hours or less, during Thanksgiving (bumper to bumper traffic from Seoul to Pusan) it would take up to 12 hours. I don’t see any ground war happening, it will be bombs and rockets.
My Isshin-Ryu instructor was a Chosin Marine...Harold Long..
Yeah. We were also told that the Iraqi Republican Guard would kill us to the man.
Or.... We can continue to let Fatboy develop missile and nuclear capabilities so that he can strike the US mainland which he has promised to do...how bout dah?
cant Seal Tean Six handle this?
Any military strike against NK, no matter how quickly or massively, would still be damaging (at a minimum) to Seoul and other SK cities even without a "ground" war. There would also be damage done to Japan. The damage would be devastating to their economies...and thus to the world economy (not to mention cost in lives).
Even with antiquated & reliability issues factored in, the massive numbers of missiles and long (enough) range artillery are of great concern.
The 2nd Korean war would make Desert Storm I look like a moderate training exercise. This all assumes that China and/or Russia remain on the sideline as well. A major, major if.
"What Would the Second Korean War Look Like?What Would the Second Korean War Look Like?
The first 24 hours of war on the Korean peninsula could cost hundreds of thousands of lives.
By Franz-Stefan Gady - April 19, 2017...One explanation for this may be that estimates of casualties and physical destruction on the Korean Peninsula (and possibly Japan) under any war scenario are so exceedingly high. Should Pyongyang live up to its threat of turning Seoul into a “sea of fire,” casualties in the larger Seoul metropolitan area alone may surpass 100,000 within 48 hours, according to some estimates, even without the use of North Korean weapons of mass destruction. The U.S. Department of Defense assessed that a Second Korean War could produce 200,000-300,000 South Korean and U.S. military casualties within the first 90 days, in addition to hundreds of thousands of civilian deaths.
..."
Part 4: How North Korea Would Retaliate
How much damage could North Korea unleash even without nuclear weapons?
How North Korea Could Kill Millions of People
If there was no threat of a nuclear retaliation or ICBM attack, they could be isolated and ignored. But that genie is darn near out of the bottle...if not already.
We can "thank" the Clintons as well as every other president since him for doing everything from very little to actually assisting that insane regime for this damned treacherous situation we...and the area, find ourselves in.
There are two solutions to the NORK problem:
1. 100 IRBM’s deployed in S Korea and Japan with sufficient range to hit Beijing. The Chinese would then take care of it in exchange for withdraw.
2. 100 B-1B and B-52s, augmented by 500 tactical aircraft, all flying 3+ sorties per day, for 21 days.
Either of them would work just fine. If the S Koreans don’t like it, too bad. NORKS are a direct, strategic threat to the USA.
We gotta do what we gotta do.
Of course we have to hunt and kill all known and emergent missile facilities/launches at initiation...F-35’s are unsurpassed at that stealth strike role.
Their AA batteries are a joke, at best. We would fly freely. None of the Nork artillery would last past the first 24 hours...and every/anything that moved on wheels would not make it past the first two hours.
IF they do manage to get off a nuke, respond 100X. Kill them all. Each and every one of them.
They cannot be allowed to obtain a weapon which reaches the US.
More fake news.
Yep, and our unit (1/635th AR/35 attached to 1st Div) had 7,000 body bags in our TO&E with Chemical officers attached at the company level since they were expecting a large number of CBRNE (called NBC back then) injuries from Saddam.
“Come what come may,
Time and the hour
Runs through the roughest day.” —Macbeth
“Seoul is only about 35 miles south of the DMZ (in range of Nork Arty). “
How much artillery, worldwide, has a 35+ mile range? And that’s from the DMZ to the northern outskirts of Seoul.
Sure, they have some 240mm MLS and some short range missiles with that range, but the idea they could destroy Seoul with artillery is a complete fallacy.
Especially when under counter fire.
All of the scenarios you posted links to assume the worst case scenario, and near incompetence by the US and South Korea.
And it assumes the NORKS attack first.
All that fancy pants artillery would be taken out in 24hrs or less if it is in range of Seoul, and within 72hrs deeper in.
Strategic Bombers carrying cluster bombs would ensure that.
>>fighting a land war in Korea during the winter is a bad idea.<<
We’re gonna have to deal with NK and Iran sooner or later. Take a look at what happened yesterday in Manchester. These are the kinds of nuts we’re dealing with.
If NK ever gets the ability to put a warhead on the tip of a missile, they will get even bolder and more baligerent.
Besides, this time around, it won’t look quite like it did in the 50’s. If we do strike, hoping Trump hits them so hard their heads will be spinning. Don’t pussy foot around.
Unleash on’em.
That was pretty scary. Did any evidence of actual NBC weapons ever turn up? I think Margaret Thatcher scared the crap out of the Iraqis when she assured them that Britain would nuke em if they used chemical weapons.
“How much artillery, worldwide, has a 35+ mile range? And that’s from the DMZ to the northern outskirts of Seoul.”
They have 170 mm self propelled gun, which has a range of about 25 miles. But it can be equipped with rocket assisted projectiles which can give it a range of over 35 miles. Don’t know how many they have. They won’t destroy Seoul, took the Russians weeks to destroy large cities. What it will do is cause panic in the Seoul population and shut the highways down. I saw accidents on Koreas paid tollways where there was an accident in congested traffic. Wreckers could not get to the accident scene because of the congestion and very little or no shoulder. The car had to be airlifted out. So in case of war, it will be very difficult to go north and south of Seoul.
In case shooting starts, I don’t think the Nork military, especially the grunts, will put forth much effort to save the regime.
Maybe so, maybe not.
There’s a lot to be said of an army using 1950’s technology totally destroying an American Naval Armada in such decisive fashion.
We’d be foolish to underestimate the Norks.
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