Posted on 05/09/2017 7:37:06 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
To paraphrase Mark Twain: Reports of President Trumps political death are greatly exaggerated. Simply scanning approval ratings overlooks the many trends determining a presidents effectiveness and re-electability. Many of these favor Mr. Trump.
As his 100-day milestone passed, the presidents lagging approval ratings were frequently cited. Two major problems exist with this point-in-time comparative approach: the moment when it is taken and to what it is compared.
Considering the uniqueness of Mr. Trumps campaign and presidency thus far, applying conventional measures to the unconventional is questionable. Rather than choosing just a single sample, an average over time offers a better view.
Rasmussens tracking polls of 1,500 likely voters provide 71 samples over Mr. Trumps first 100 days. Averaging these, his approval and disapproval ratings are almost exactly balanced: Approval, 49.6 percent; disapproval, 50.3 percent.
Importantly, Mr. Trumps first day approval rating was not wildly high (56-44 percent) though certainly higher than his favorability rating during the campaign. Mr. Trump won the election with 46.1 percent of the popular vote, therefore losing 53.9 percent. Compared to the benchmark that elected him, Mr. Trumps Rasmussen 100-day average handily beats it.....
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtontimes.com ...
Districts matter despite your emphasis of the corrupt, populate vote.
Trump may have had pockets of strength in New York state, but he lost the total state vote by 23%, a landslide by any measure.
He lost California by 30%.
In 2012, Romney got almost 400,000 more votes in California than Trump got.
In Wisconsin, Trump won the state, but Trump got less votes than Romney got, and Romney lost Wisconsin by 7%.
The Democrats, and Hillary Clinton, are not weak.
They simply failed to turn out their voters in three key states, probably because of poll driven over confidence.
In Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, the Green Party got enough votes in each of those states to give Hillary a majority - and the White House.
Thanks to the EC, even if the number goes from 75% to 99.99%, why should we care?
MSM polls have a serious technical defect. It is colloquially known as “Republicans slamming the phone down in their damned ears when they realize who is calling.” ;)
Hopeful Prediction: After Pence is elected president the second time, California will vote for, and try to negotiate, a Calexit.
I’m having second thoughts about Paul Ryan.
When you consider he’s in office because RINO supported him, he was nonetheless able to get the health care bill through the House.
Perhaps the first go around (the Ryan plan) failed because the RINOs had to be satisfied. And it’s failure led to the better plan that passed.
We don’t really know what Ryan personally favors because he represents the whole House of Republicans. But he did deliver to Trump a victory.
Trump actually got slightly more votes than Romney got in Wisconsin. Trump got 300,000 more votes in PA. than Romney. Clinton got slightly more votes than Obama in PA. I agree we shouldn’t let down our guard this country is 50/50 but Trump did very well.
2016 - Trump - Wisconsin - 1,405,284
The Romney number is certified by Congress.
I don't think Congress has certified the 2016 election yet.
However, Trump's number appears on Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
Dave Leip is universally considered to be the number one American scholar on U.S. presidential elections.
Not according to Congress and Dave Leip.
Obama (2012) - 2.990 million
Trump - 2.970 million
Clinton - 2.926 million
I was looking at some slightly different numbers. But Trump outperformed Romney in Pa, Fl, Oh, Nc, Ia, and got 2 million more votes nationally. I think your premise that it was a simple lack of turn out for hillary is not the full story although she had some problems with turnout. She did great in Florida, for example, but Trump did better surpassing Obama’s 2008 and 2012 totals by a lot.
My main premise is that Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania were the only three large states that had some chance of flipping to Trump.
I think Hillary, and hundreds of thousands of individual voters in those states, were completely beguiled by the wildly wrong state polls.
From memory, small parties increased their vote total in 2016 by a huge 5.6 million.
I’ll wager that 90% of the Green Party voters in those states would have voted for Hillary if they thought Trump might win.
Normally, the Libertarian Party trends about 60% Republican.
But, I guarantee that did not happen in 2016.
The Libertarian presidential nominee publicly campaigned for Open Borders and Amnesty.
William Weld, the vice-presidential nominee, publicly stated he would vote for Hillary if he was not running on the Libertarian ticket.
I’ll wager that a significant chunk of the Libertarian vote in those three states would have gone to Hillary if those voters had any clue that Trump might win.
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