Posted on 04/23/2017 8:38:37 AM PDT by drewh
Belgian newspaper La Libre got its hands on a new poll of the French presidential election "conducted by one of the candidates' teams." If these results play out today, we're going to experience a political earthquake:
Last night, LaLibre.be unveiled the figures of the latest poll conducted at the request of a candidate's team at a well-known polling institute after the attack on the Champs-Elysees... Marine Le Pen would be leading with 26%. François Fillon would be slightly ahead of Emmanuel Macron with 22%, against 21% for the former Minister of Economy of François Hollande. The two candidates, however, remain within the margin of error, as in other polls published this week.
According to the poll of polls, Macron is still in the lead, but he has lost support in the last couple of weeks -- and especially in the last few days. Most experts believed that the recent terror attack in Paris would affect the elections. According to La Libre, that is exactly what has happened:
Due to French electoral legislation and in order to protect our source, we can not disclose the technical details of this investigation. Remember also that a poll is a "photo" of opinion at a given time. That said, the trend seems to be influenced by the terrorist threat that made a remarkable comeback at the very end of the election campaign, although the vote remains particularly tight and still uncertain given the margins of error of the investigations. It goes without saying that whichever campaign leaked this information obviously hoped to benefit from it, which points us in the direction of either Fillon or Le Pen. Be that as it may, that doesn't mean that the poll is wrong. Candidates want to get their polls right so they know what to expect on election day and whom to reach out to. A candidate with a bad pollster is a candidate who has lost before voting even starts.
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This poll is good news for Le Pen not only because it has her in first place, but also because out of every possible opponent she may face in the second round, she systematically polls best against Fillon, the Republican candidate who's involved in several controversies including a corruption case. Earlier this month, Le Pen was losing 47% to 53% in a head-to-head matchup against Fillon. That's significant because La Libre's poll indicates she has more momentum now than ever before. As we all know, in politics, creating momentum is half the game.
In other words, I was too rash in writing off Le Pen's chances. She will certainly not be the favorite in a two-way race, but hey, neither was Donald Trump last year. And guess who's sitting in the Oval Office today?
Having said that, a Fillon comeback is, of course, also a surprising and even downright shocking development. For a while, people thought he was down for the count. If this poll is correct, rumors of his premature death were extremely exaggerated. And let's face it, if he ends up number two today, he is the favorite to win the runoff against Le Pen. That would truly be a fascinating political comeback story.
Exit polls show Clinton beating Trump in blowout.
I will take these “leaked polls” with a huge pinch of salt but hopefully they are a good indication of Le Pen’s strength.
if this is true then the immigrants and their snowflake friends will go nuts
get the popcorn ready
Fillon would be ok, and better than all but Le Pen. The others would be a disaster.
Don’t get your hopes up that a country in continental Europe will vote nationalist. You will be disappointed over and over and over...
LePen. is greater than the sword.
We have moved to leaked exit polls.
http://www.haaretz.com/world-news/europe/LIVE-1.785045/701530890#701530890
She will end up “unexpectedly” winning, just like Trump.
everyone in the MSM thought Jean Francois Kerry was gonna be president, when he was up by two in mid day exit polls...
What are Le Pen's positions on issues other than Islamic immigration?
In French politics, what does "conservative" mean?
“Exit polls show Clinton beating Trump in blowout.”
Funny how NOBODY believes polls anymore, except liberals.
Macron will do well in Paris. Hard to see his appeal anywhere else.
I’m no expert, but I believe Le Pen generally opposes the EU and would favor a Frexit like Brexit.
Also, Fillion is “conservative” and that appears to mean that he likes the current status quo of EU, socialism, globalism, and the scelrotic post-WWII European model. Not my kind of conservative.
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“Exit polls show Clinton beating Trump in blowout.”
Funny how NOBODY believes polls anymore, except liberals when they say what liberals want to hear.
“if this is true then the immigrants and their snowflake friends will go nuts.”
Gee, are the snowflakes here in the States going to send over their ‘pussy hats’ for the French to demonistrate???
There is no limited govt candidate. The question is immigration / terrorism, then participation in the EU and euro currency.
The country is likely split as were the UK on the Brexit vote and the US presidential election between rust belt strongholds and a heavily populated finance capital.
The French industrial north has long been the seat of communism in the country, but in recent years Le Pen has made strong inroads there. Her traditional power base is Marseilles in the south, where there has long been tension over North African migration from former French colonies.
1. Le Pen’s positions: economically left, socially right, nationality France.
2. Conservatives in France = American Democrats in 1990s
If she does win and I hope she does, one will have to sit back and watch the media. One will have to weather the caterwauling and the doom and gloom of these worthies. Oh calamity!
Meantime, day in and day out, even as I type, the MSM Canada is droning on. Every day, every hour, it is Trump this and Trump that. Climate change, the Chinese, the Canadian dairy industry.
Maybe it will change to be the horror of Le Pen and a world disaster. (chuckle).
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