If the GOP House and Senate passed the AHCA in Step #2, there would be no increase in the number of seats in Congress in 2018. The GOP would have gotten slaughtered in 2018 after the insurance companies sent out their 2018 renewal notices with another round of massive hikes in premiums late this year.
That's why the AHCA absolutely had to have one thing that it did not have: a credible set of provisions that would have reduced insurance premiums IMMEDIATELY.
You may be missing one important salient point. Which is, only bill which can be passed with reconciliation is the budget part, in 2017. Because GOP can not stop the filibuster.
By failing to repeal Obamacare as ALL REPUBLICANS promised and ran on in 2016, failure to do so is almost certain to cause a bloodbath in 2018.
In other words, the provisions which will reduce premiums can not pass congress because of too few republicans to override filibusters.
Read my 1 page profile on how to reduce cost of healthcare.
If republicans fail to repeal obamacare and fail to replace it with something even if not a great bill, I will take a long vacation during November 2018, out of the country, because the pain of watching a bloodbath will be too much to bear.