Emergency: California’s Oroville Dam Spillway Near Failure, Evacuations Ordered

Breitbart ^ | Feb 12, 2017 | Joel B. Pollak1

[janetjanet998]

The California Department of Water Resources issued a sudden evacuation order shortly before 5 p.m. Sunday for residents near the Oroville Dam in northern California, warning that the dam’s emergency spillway would fail in the next 60 minutes.

The Oroville Dam is the highest in the nation.

[daisy12]

some good graphics and commentary

https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/107108/oroville-dam-threatens-collapse

[Ray76]

           Station Name    ID     Elev.   Date/Time            Value
INFLOW     OROVILLE DAM    ORO    900'    02/16/2017 14:00     27685 CFS       http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/getAll?sens_num=76
OUTFLOW    OROVILLE DAM    ORO    900'    02/16/2017 14:00     85022 CFS       http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/getAll?sens_num=23

[daisy12]

Scott Cahill latest comments

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/oroville-dam-our-fathers-legacy-scott-cahill

Scott Cahill

Construction Expert,Writer,Speech Writer,Public Speaker,Expert Witness,Sailor,Pilot,Political Blogger

latimes.com Updated the storm to 10” of rain and a warmer storm - both very bad for the dam situation. Things are not going well, I fear for the residents of the downstream communities. I would begin preliminary preparations and pack so you are not caught off guard if another evacuation is put in place.

[Ray76]

           Station Name    ID     Elev.   Date/Time            Value
INFLOW     OROVILLE DAM    ORO    900'    02/16/2017 18:00     26986 CFS       http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/getAll?sens_num=76
OUTFLOW    OROVILLE DAM    ORO    900'    02/16/2017 18:00     80125 CFS       http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/getAll?sens_num=23

[Repeal The 17th]

Thank you.
I appreciate that you post these updates.

[Ray76]

           Station Name    ID     Elev.   Date/Time            Value
INFLOW     OROVILLE DAM    ORO    900'    02/16/2017 21:00     24759 CFS       http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/getAll?sens_num=76
OUTFLOW    OROVILLE DAM    ORO    900'    02/16/2017 21:00     80020 CFS       http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/getAll?sens_num=23

[leakinInTheBlueSea]

Not sure if this has been posted before... Some interesting calculations using past DWR Oroville inflow and rainfall data to predict lake level given sustained precip rates. Straightforward from a data stance with the possible errors due to variations in ground saturation and snow levels/melt. Interesting nonetheless:

https://github.com/axibase/atsd-use-cases/blob/master/OrovilleDam/README.md

[Ray76]

Source: https://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/products/QPF.pdf

---

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
824 PM PST Thu Feb 16 2017

.Synopsis... Wet weather returns with several storm system passages expected through next week. Sierra mountain travel issues at times. Gusty winds Friday and Monday. Increased flood threat Monday.

. Discussion (Tonight through Sunday)... A short break in rain this evening with more rain expected to move into the region late tonight and Friday morning. [] As the low moves closer to the coast rain will spread from a southerly direction to a northerly direction during the day. Most of the rain will occur Friday and Friday night with the rain tapering to showers by Saturday morning. Snow levels look fairly high with this system on Friday near 7000 feet during most of the day and at least into the early evening before lowering to near 5000 feet later at night. (EMPHASIS ADDED)

There will be a chance for some showers Saturday and Sunday ahead of the next round of rain []. Winds will be much stronger and widespread with heavy rainfall amounts for the foothills and mountains than compared with the Friday system.

Source: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=STO&issuedby=STO&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

[Ray76]

Nice find. Reading it now.

Thanks.

[leakinInTheBlueSea]

As long as the snow level stays low, that is not as bad as it lo Is... but, if the snow level creeps back up near 7k, 4 inches of rain in 1 day would be a real problem (understatement).

[Ray76]

Plus the warm air may melt snow already on the ground.

[Ray76]

wunderground has a nice precip profile chart

https://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=Quincy%2C+CA&MR=1

[Ray76]

Snow accumulation zones

Source: http://featherriverorg.alias.strangecode.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Snow_Course-Comparison_web.jpg

http://featherriver.org/

---

There could be a lot of snowmelt on Friday.

[leakinInTheBlueSea]

Thankfully 1” rain and a 5k snow level means snowmelt should not be too much... can’t be too much snow left below 5k after last week . No?

[Ray76]

Friday snow level is expected to be 7000 throughout the day and evening. Hopefully there’s not much to melt.

[Ray76]

River gauges observations and forecast.

Source: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/forecasts.php

[Ray76]

That is an excellent link. Very informative and very well done.

[Ray76]

There is several feet of snow. A small increase rather than any melting is forecast.

https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/map.html

[maggief]

I'm back online!

[maggief]

Live feed:

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