Posted on 11/13/2016 11:44:29 AM PST by LS
Boy was I wrong. All along I had Trump at between 62 and 64 million votes. Our overly optimistic friend "Sundance" at www.conservativetreehouse.com was completely off the charts unrealistic, with a projection of 73 million.
Yes, Trump won the electoral college---as I predicted---big. As of today I think he is at 304. Another 720,000 votes in seven states would have given him an additional 43 electoral votes.
But unfortunately I was right in another prediction: the margin would be large, but each state would be decided by a small fraction of voters. Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, and Florida all hinged on fewer than 180,000 votes. To appreciate how close that is, Obama won reelection in 2008 by under 480,000 votes, and I thought that was very close. I did correctly predict that the dominoes would all fall in the same direction, and, more or less, they did. We lost VA and NH in the east, and NV and CO by larger margins in the west, but the battleground tier of OH, WI, MI, PA, IA, NC, and FL all fell to Trump.
So it's time to put good feelings aside for just a moment---we'll have plenty more in the coming months---and appreciate just how close . . . how MIRACULOUS . . . this election was.
You begin with Hillary Clinton, the equivalent of a new coach being given a Super Bowl team with All Stars at every position and a free agent budget the size of Jupiter (less the emigrating Cher). Cankles had 90% name recognition, a sitting president more or less behind her, a docile party obedient to her whims, and a fawning media such that Saddam Hussein or Napoleon would have been fortunate to have.
And with all that she got six million fewer votes than Zero in his second election (where he got millions fewer than in 2008). It's darn near unfathomable, looking at it objectively, to figure out how she lost, given the numbers.
She'll likely end up winning the popular vote by 500,000 to 1 million, held the expected liberal vote treasures of New York, Illinois, and California, held Obama's western states without exception, eked out a narrow win in New Hampshire, and got Virginia as expected.
Yet she was crushed in the electoral college by a guy who spent HALF as much as she did. How?
*She didn't make any inroads at all with females---supposedly Cankles' calling card. White women went for Trump. There was no big "gender gap," except with men, who couldn't stand her.
*She lost millions of black and hispanic votes. Pew's research is unreliable---these guys did polls, remember? ---but they say Trump only got 8% of blacks. (I find that very unlikely, especially when every other poll was showing him at nearly double that.) But if blacks didn't vote for Trump, they sure didn't vote for Cankles. In FL and NC, when all is said and done she probably lost several hundred thousand African-American votes.
*"Da Yuts" were repelled by her. They stayed home.
*She lost the northern tier of rust belt states because she just didn't care. Cankles made NO visits to Wisconsin, only a couple of desperation trips to Michigan and Pennsylvania in the end. That message got out.
*Trump was indeed hurt by the tape, and vote counters in Ohio found that erstwhile R absentees dated right after the tape release suddenly had a very high percentage of Johnson votes. I'm guessing the tape cost Trump NH, possibly MN.
Still, the tape cannot account for the lack of turnout for Trump. NeverTrumpers? Some. For whatever reason, though, Trump did not turn out the large number of new voters that was expected by his supporters such as myself. (The limited data we have says that 90% of Republicans voted for him).
That leaves us with one explanation: Trump's election was a miracle. Some 60,000-70,000 voters in MI and PA saved the country. WI was a nice addition, but without one more state, WI's 10 electoral votes wouldn't have put Trump over. No, this was divine intervention.
And, in a way, it is perfectly in keeping with the Bible, for it was Gideon who prepared to go to war with 30,000 men . . . "the old fashioned way." God told him many were not committed, and to winnow them out. When only 3,000 remained, Gideon was told to cut the number further. Finally only 300 fully committed men remained. The message was that God wanted Gideon to know that it was His power, not numbers or the skill of the troops, that would bring victory.
So in the end, our "monster vote" never materialized. God cut the number down to under 180,000 in five states so that no one could doubt Who really won this one.
Absolutely. But this is a STATE job. After all, it is the states that establish their election boards, counting rules, ballots, etc.
Not against a popular opponent it won’t be.
I understood the strategy of both was to drive down turnout in their opponent’s strength, and they appear to have succeeded.
But you are right. 60 million will lose most years.
I’d be truly interested in research on how many Trump voters stayed home because the loud media voice of pundits, pollsters, and famous people were shouting constantly that it was all over.
All I know is what I’m told by Montgomery Co. BOE official, that right after that tape Trump’s absentees from Republican ballots fell off as many began voting Johnson. He recovered. I think the tape cost him NH.
Doesn’t the federal gov’t have standing in national elections? Federal citizenship requirements?
I’m most assuredly a 10th A guy, however the issue is non-citizens voting in federal elections. The feds must have some legal standing here.
That doesn’t surprise me at all, and it’s good info.
I hope someone does research some day. I think Trump was really kicking butt before that locker room video, and then he came back again, but even then, the fake polls and phony news went on right up ‘til 9 pm on election day.
I’m guessing millions of votes, but I have no way to prove it.
Bannon told me that the tape “really hurt” with women, and in New Hampshire “it’s killin’ us.”
Perhaps here:
Section 4
The United States shall guarantee to every State in this Union a Republican Form of Government, and shall protect each of them against Invasion; and on Application of the Legislature, or of the Executive (when the Legislature cannot be convened) against domestic Violence.
I’m betting it hurt with conservative Christians initially.
Trump’s “locker room talk” explanation was both genius and appeared to be honest.
But it took a while to sink in.
LS, thank you for the information that you provided during the election process. You were always clear, concise, and timely. It was an added bonus on FR to have the information at hand and made election night so much clearer. When the pundits were still leaning toward Clinton, with your information, I could see that they were wrong. Then, I thought I was just wrong. I mean they are pundits after all :).
As the hours ticked by on election night, I didn’t know whether to break out the celebratory beverage or drop to my knees in thankful prayer. So, I did both. The hand of God was moving across our nation and the awe I felt was amazing.
Thanks again! You rock!
Thanks both.
I think we’re already getting a little disinformation now from our side trying to make this look like a landslide. In fact, we didn’t come close to the “monster vote” everyone predicted, and must now focus on very serious conservative voter registration and turnout four years from now. Admittedly, it should be easier with four years of Trump policies.
That's never been what I said, I'm not really arguing with you, and it's NOT what I'm suggesting, so please get that straight.
My original post was simple, and I stand by it. My original claim that you are underselling what happened stands.
That's all.
That's interesting, because here in Florida, I actually signed up with that org. "floridagrassroots.org" that had been mentioned here on FR, and ended up doing a couple of days' worth of "get out the vote" canvassing, including even some on Tuesday the 8th.
So there was definitely at least some "ground game" effort in Florida, and I know there was some in at least a few other states.
One thing I immediately noticed during my canvassing, was that many People were reticent to state their Presidential preference. Many Trump voters were obviously playing their cards close to their chest.
Thus, the Media ended up screwing themselves over. Their constant demonization of Trump led to a situation where their polls became even more unreliable...
Yes. I agree and that’s why I see it as a miracle. No landslide. Hope hubris stands aside and allows us to see clearly the work ahead.
This is great analysis.
God I hope so. Cleaning up the rolls will be YUGE!
I agree. Trump thought that one of his keys to victory was addressing the American people directly. I hope he tells us what's going on and what can be done about it as often as he can. I think if R's would govern on the principals they campaign on, that would bring out and even create more R's/Conservatives. If they would also fight as hard as Trump did—like the champion of the base he proved to be—that would also inspire tremendous confidence for the mid-terms and the second time around. Our elected leaders cannot show fear and deference to their ideological opponents that want to destroy them any longer. They must fight back at least as hard as they attack.
How the Republicans govern and perform in the next two years is crucial. If they can pursue an agenda that us designed to drain the swamp and get the country back on its feet for our middle-classs with a fighting spirit, the mid-terms and 2020 campaigns will be Reagan-esque in its proportions.
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