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Florida Early Vote update, 11/07/2016
11/07/2016 | self

Posted on 11/07/2016 6:43:11 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas

Here are the RETURNED Florida Absentee Ballot numbers for 2016 (REPs led in this category by 79,000 in 2012). Approximately 75.7% of Absentee Ballots have been returned at this point.

79.6% of REP ballots, have been returned and 74.1% of DEM ballots have been returned.

11/07/16: REPs - 1,047,119, DEMs - 980,440 lead of 66,679 for REPs, 41.0% to 38.5%

11/06/16: REPs - 1,043,583, DEMs - 974,135 lead of 69,448 for REPs, 41.1% to 38.4%

11/05/16: REPs - 1,019,738, DEMs - 947,476 lead of 74,262 for REPs, 41.3% to 38.4%

For Hillsborough [battleground/swing county] (DEMs had a lead of 20,000 in 2012 early voting - that's absentee ballots plus in-person early voting):

11/07/16: REPs - 147,709, DEMs - 175,801, lead of 28,092 for DEMs <== Now reflects absentee + in-person early voting


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: 2016polls; 2016swingstates; fl2016
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In-Person early voting has started. DEMs will likely take the lead with in-person voting (and they have). The goal is to reduce their lead from 2012's margin.

2012 (ballots cast, not yet counted) Totals from Election Eve 2012

Absentee Ballot - REPs led by 79,000

In-Person Early Voting - DEMs led by 247,000

Combined Early voting - DEMs led by 168,000

Obama won Florida in 2012 by 74,000 votes

2016 (ballots cast, not yet counted)

Absentee Ballot - REPs lead by 66,679

In-Person Early Voting - DEMs lead by 154,691

Combined Early voting - DEMs lead by 88,012

1 posted on 11/07/2016 6:43:11 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
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To: Ravi; LS

Well this is my second to last Florida update. One more update tomorrow. Tomorrow’s numbers won’t change too much. Just a few more absentee ballots will show up. Probably less than 3-4,000 total.

The DEMs had a great day yesterday and increased their overall early vote lead to 88,000. They led by 168,000 on Election Eve 2012. So we improved by 80,000 over 2012!!! And Obama only won the state by 74,000.

Republicans will win the Election Day vote and win Florida. Sticking with my prediction of 230,000 and 2.5%.

Total (DEMs + REPs + INDYs) in-person voting is 3,874,942

Total (DEMs + REPs + INDYs) absentee voting is 2,549,653 (plus another 3-4000 tomorrow morning).

Total early voting is 6,424,595

Sometimes, when polls close in a state, the state will report vote numbers pretty quickly for early voting. So if you see big numbers for Florida soon after the polls close and then a long delay before the precinct vote comes in, look at the numbers and compare against our stats.

If the totals are around 3.8 million, that would be the in-person only voting. Compare the DEM lead 154,691.

If the totals are around 6.4 million, that would be the combined early voting. Compare the DEM lead to 88,012.

This can give us a clue to how crossovers and Indys are breaking.


2 posted on 11/07/2016 6:45:06 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Important fact: Rep leaning counties were not open Sunday for voting, but Dem leaning counties were - so I have heard.


3 posted on 11/07/2016 6:46:01 AM PST by 11th_VA (#boycottNFL)
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To: Ravi; LS

Hillsborough County, Florida has voted for the winning president in 21 out of the last 22 elections. Pretty amazing when you think about it.

Obama won Hillsborough by 36,000 votes in 2012. With the big 28,000 early vote lead this year, Clinton has a good chance to win Hillsborough.

After this election, Hillsborough’s record will be 21 out of the last 23 elections.


4 posted on 11/07/2016 6:48:31 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
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To: 11th_VA

Absolute correctly. Should have mentioned that!


5 posted on 11/07/2016 6:49:00 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
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To: SpeedyInTexas

We see the numbers, but did the RATs vote for Hillary?


6 posted on 11/07/2016 6:49:53 AM PST by ROCKLOBSTER (Crooked Hillary is Goin' down!)
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To: 11th_VA

Yesterday only 16 counties (Bay, Bradford, Broward, Charlotte, Duval, Hillsborough, Leon, Miami-Dade, Orange, Osceola, Palm Beach, Pinellas, Polk, Seminole, St. Lucie and Suwannee) out of 67 counties had early voting.

5 were REP and 11 were DEM.

The 5 REP were mainly smaller counties while all the big DEM counties were open for 12 long hours.


7 posted on 11/07/2016 6:51:34 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
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To: 11th_VA

Hillsborough county was open yesterday and had their best day of turnout for early voting, and it was not really close. Not sure you can read into that too much either way.

All the stats from early voting turnout for the Tampa area can be found here: http://www.votehillsborough.org/


8 posted on 11/07/2016 6:52:13 AM PST by Florida1181
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To: ROCKLOBSTER

That is the question. When the early vote numbers are reported soon after the polls close on Tuesday, we can compare who is leading versus who voted by party registration.


9 posted on 11/07/2016 6:52:59 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
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To: SpeedyInTexas

what is the indie vote ??

what the numbers ?


10 posted on 11/07/2016 6:53:13 AM PST by ncalburt
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To: SpeedyInTexas

These numbers add up to almost 80% of the total votes cast in 2012. What do you project Election Day turnout to be?


11 posted on 11/07/2016 6:56:11 AM PST by Murp (!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!d)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

These numbers add up to almost 80% of the total votes cast in 2012. What do you project Election Day turnout to be?


12 posted on 11/07/2016 6:56:13 AM PST by Murp (!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!d)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

It is going to be close. I wish we had kept the DEM lead closer to 30,000. That being said, if Trump’s outperforms Romney among independents, he may squeak out a win.

The large turnout among unaffiliated voters in NC, puts NC somewhat in the same vote. It would seem to me a surge in independent voters is to Trump’s advantage.


13 posted on 11/07/2016 6:56:25 AM PST by wfu_deacons
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Obama won 50% of the Independent vote in FL in 2012, going to be important for Trump to do reduce that.

Dems announced in 2012 they had won FL a few days ahead of the election based on early voting. They were right. They have not done that this time. Dems are now saying it is a 1% race either way, so I think they know they have lost in FL.

However, not happy about Hillsborough voting. It shows the Dems get out the vote effort may be better than expected.


14 posted on 11/07/2016 6:57:04 AM PST by Stevenc131
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To: SpeedyInTexas

CO numbers should be out within an hour. REPs will likely take the lead in returned ballots. Lets see.

The demographics of the Indys in Colorado who have voted, more men than women and mostly Whites, makes me hopeful for Colorful Colorado.


15 posted on 11/07/2016 6:57:07 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
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To: 11th_VA; LS; SpeedyInTexas

Yes pretty much only Dem counties open yesterday. Even though yesterday’s results were not great, the whole two week period of early voting and vote-by-mail voting has been beneficial to Trump’s chances in FL. I think he will win also tomorrow. 6.4 million voters have cast ballots. If turnout is 75% then another 3.2 million votes will be cast Tuesday. If turnout bumps to 80% turnout (entirely possible), then you’re looking at another 3.8 to 3.9 million votes on Tuesday. Gonna be a wild ride.


16 posted on 11/07/2016 6:57:23 AM PST by Ravi
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To: ncalburt

So far, 1,391,721 Indys/Other Parties have voted.

By election Day, could be 2,000,000 Indys.


17 posted on 11/07/2016 6:59:24 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
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To: Murp

2012 was roughly 8.4 million. People have estimated around 9.5 million this year.


18 posted on 11/07/2016 7:01:02 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
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To: wfu_deacons

In NC though, Rep vote narrowed the gap to D by 140k votes from 2012 even without independents.


19 posted on 11/07/2016 7:01:41 AM PST by rb22982
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To: SpeedyInTexas

That’s 21% Indys, of the percentage already voted ...


20 posted on 11/07/2016 7:02:09 AM PST by 11th_VA (#boycottNFL)
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