Obama won 50% of the Independent vote in FL in 2012, going to be important for Trump to do reduce that.
Dems announced in 2012 they had won FL a few days ahead of the election based on early voting. They were right. They have not done that this time. Dems are now saying it is a 1% race either way, so I think they know they have lost in FL.
However, not happy about Hillsborough voting. It shows the Dems get out the vote effort may be better than expected.
Hillsborough demographics have changed. I think I read 37,000 more Hispanics there.
But we'll see tomorrow. There's must be a reason candidates have done their own seperate GOTV effort- though it seems duplicative and wasteful.
EXCEPT . . . everyone still thinking Ds vote D.
We have two polls showing a net +5 and net +7 to Trump of Ds voting R over Rs voting D.
That’s between 2,000 and 3,000 votes in Hillsborough alone, or enough to knock them back under their 2012 levels.
Then there are the Is, 400,000 of them so far in FL. If Trump is 2:1 as some polls suggest, he’s already netted another 100,000 votes margin.
Your assumption is that all of the ‘D’s are voting for Hillary, and that doesn’t seem to be the case.