As NC Winds Down Early Voting, 2016 Speeds Past 2012 Numbers

Old North State Politics ^ | 11/5/2016 | DR. MICHAEL BITZER

[rb22982]

This year's ballots is 13.4 percent ahead of where things were on this same day in 2012.....

Democrats have hit their same totals from four years ago on this same day, but registered Republicans are 13.8 percent ahead of their same-day 2012 totals and registered unaffiliated voters are 43.4 percent ahead of their same day totals

Black voters have been making up their deficit from four years ago, now down only 8 percent from their 2012 same-day numbers (down 59,200 ballots), with white voters up 19 percent and all other races up 53 percent [my note: Up 53% on a very, very tiny base].

Lot more at link

[rb22982]

Long story short - good news continues in NC for Trump. Looks like Hillary is going to have 150k fewer vote lead in NC going into election day than Obama did in 2012 with one day left of early voting. Independents are the only wild card but given they are nearly 80% white and where they voted in the primary (55%R/45%D of the 50% who voted in primaries as of a week ago), I have to believe they are 10% higher for Trump. Given Romney won this state by 2%, I still believe Trump is cruising here to a 4-7% victory in NC.

[Gaffer]

These lying tyrants are about to get hit with a tsunami of destruction on their evil reign.

[Gay State Conservative]

I wonder if on Election Day states with early voting can start counting the early votes at,say,9AM local time...or when it’s 9AM in their state capital (for those states in two time zones)?

[DarthVader]

I love this statement and if you don’t mind I would like to use it as my tagline with your permission.

[Gaffer]

Be my guest.

[allendale]

If Clinton gets less than 90% of the total black vote in North Carolina and Florida, she loses those states. If she gets less than 85% in Virginia, she loses there too. If CBS on election day reports that “exit polls” demonstrate less than expected support for Clinton among blacks, it is all you will need to know.

[apillar]

Black voters have been making up their deficit from four years ago, now down only 8 percent from their 2012 same-day numbers (down 59,200 ballots), with white voters up 19 percent

Yes, and remember that Obama still LOST North Carolina in 2012. What they are essentially saying is that Hillary is going to lose by more than Obama, but maybe by slightly less than she was going to lose a few days ago.

[ReaganGeneration2]

If Romney (weak) won NC vs Obama (half-black), no way Trump loses.

Prediction: the polls are close because they need them - to reduce suspicion when fraud increases Hillary’s “votes”.

[rb22982]

Or to help down-ballot races for Dems.

[DarthVader]

Thank you!!

[rb22982]

Among unaffiliated who voted in one of the primaries, roughly 54% voted in R primary and 46% voted in D primary. Looks like indies will skew Rep in NC. Even more confident of a Trump +4-7% win in NC.

[Ravi]

Not until polls closed

[mrsmith]

Dems are hoping the Hispanic vote makes up for ‘Black’ vote losses.
Maybe, maybe not. Maybe in some states and not others.
I wish Trump addressed the cost of the illegals’ gangs and drugs in Hispanic communities more.

[Biggirl]

Most Latinos are pretty much are conservative and family oriented. Plus many are devout Christians.

[Clintonfatigued]

Look at how much time Obama and other surrogates have spent in North Carolina. They are worried about a Trump victory there. It looks hopeful for us.

[mrsmith]

Yeah, and Trump could have appealed to them more. He is the only one offering a “comprehensive immigration reform” that is real and can be passed.

No campaign can be perfect of course.