My only two problems with this poll are one, is that is not a two way race but a four way race. Stein and Johnson take a point or two from PIAPS. Two, it is a +7 DEM poll. I think reality is this is, at best a +2 DEM election.
Really R +2. Add six points to Trump’s 48% and it feels right.
I always wondered about some of the methodology of the polls in general, and wondered whether they had some hidden geographical biases. Even if you tried to design a balanced poll to include fair numbers of D, R and I - if you polled for them in places like CA and NY you would still be oversampling because Rs in those states are slightly more likely to vote D than Rs in MO or WY. Then again, perhaps Ds in WY are more likely to vote R than D's in NY or CA. But it is also a question of the EC and oversampling geographically won't get an accurate sense of how the states will come in.
I do agree this won't be a Dem +7 election. And the trend among all polls has shown attrition from the 3rd parties, as many people had suspected. As we get closer to D day R day, many who are displeased with the 2 major candidates are getting sober about the importance of their vote this year. I always suspected that the 3rd party people would break towards Trump, since Hillary is already a very defined candidate. If you didn't like her 3 months ago, you aren't going to wake up Tuesday deciding you do. It was up to Trump to get those people off the fence by proving his mettle and I think he has done that fairly well. He has been a firebrand candidate, practically non-stop campaigning every day for a year, 3-5 stops per day... no secret fundraising events, no week-long hiatus to "rest" or "debate prep" or to rotate the sequence of his medication so he won't collapse on the street. He held his own - heck, more than held his own - against a very established & experienced candidate, against 93% of the media, an onslaught of dirty tricks and lies, fearmongering, hate, and even against some backstabbers inside the GOP. He has overcome all of this to stay competitive and I am very hopeful he will win.