Posted on 11/04/2016 8:09:47 AM PDT by UKrepublican
"Registered Democrats are 0.1 percent behind their numbers from the same day in 2012, while registered Republicans are 12.5 percent ahead and registered unaffiliated voters are 43.3 percent ahead of their same day totals from four years ago."
(Excerpt) Read more at oldnorthstatepolitics.com ...
Question: what is the chance that R’s are cannibalizing some of their election day vote to be ahead early voting this year?
I think slim. Minorities won't come out to vote on election day. JMO.
These numbers portend what we’re hoping for! If Trump has these results in NC and Ohio, how does that not carry over to all the other states? The answer is, it does!
It’s possible, but impossible to say.
Even if they are that is not a bad thing - they can target their election day GOTV more precisely.
ASSUMING that the votes are all counted and fair - far better to get them in quick and pick off those (on election day) that support you, but are not as inclined to vote.
Based on ONSP site, for total early voting, I’m estimating Rep pick up ~150k vs 2012 (~180k in person - 33k mail in). Dems up ~5k (+5-10k in person - 3k mail in). Unaffiliated up 260k. Ignoring unaffiliated, that’s another net 2.5% pick up for Trump on a state Romney won by 2%. Unaffiliated are heavy white (79%) so I’m optimistic Trump may have picked up 3% or so vs 2012 in early voting compared to Romney. I think Trump wins NC by 4-6%.
This would all be considered good news for Trump, right?
Quite possible. My brother who lives in Charlotte never liked EV, but this year he decided to go for it. I think more Repubs are voting early as they are getting comfortable with the idea. Having said that, I don’t think we are going to see the same 12% decrease from Repubs on the 8th.
If the polling which suggests 55% of the UA voted in the GOP primary, the Beast is done in NC.
Is is worrisome that the DEM figures match 2012? In 2012 the DEMs were all excited about Obama and he was truly popular with them while this year a large number of DEMs don’t particularly like H. Clinton. Yet the DEM turnout is about the same 2012 vs. 2016?
Yes. Ignoring indies, Trump is on track to add ~2.5% to total expected 2016 vote vs 2012 in early voting (Romney won by 2% in 2012).
I doubt if enthusiasm for hillary has driven all those independents to get out and vote!
Assuming he wins Ohio and Pennsylvania, its over.
Based on poll information that has come out, I struggle to see how he doesn’t win nationwide by at least 3 points. If he wins by more than 1 there is no chance he wouldnt win in the electoral college also.
D voters advantage in 2008 was 8%, 6% in 2012 - and yet we have polls giving D’s +10 and above, and only Hillary + 1 or even Trump + 1. Its nonsense to think she will turn out more voters. At most I think D + 4, but that could be a gross exaggeration which I tend to think it is.
With those certain to vote, Trumps lead is over 8%. That is huge.
If the Trump campaign has been doing their homework, and working on the GOTV quietly behind the scenes, they will win and win big.
Afterall, many believe it was simply Romneys IT problems on election day that cost him that or massive fraud, or both....
Yes, they match, but EV is up across all segments of the NC population. All this tells us is the ALL voters are more comfortable voting early.
If you want to gauge enthusiasm, then the percentages that the OP posted should shed some light.
Enthusiasm more likely effects on the day voters. Early voters more often tend to be hyper-partisan. Im not surprised this number remains unchanged
The Dems are masterful at GOTV. (they can even get the dead to vote!)
Back in 2000/2004 for all his faults, people like Rove invested heavily in this. They were at the cutting edge of technology.
For whatever reason, and as technology e.g. phones / internet / software / data collaboration has exploded - they have lagged massively behind.
But as Trump showed in the primaries, this didn’t matter. Not sure how it will translate in a general where the margins are far finer...
I just hope people do not get complacent on election day because of the good news of early voting.
In this state yes definitely.
However in Nevada, there are some very worrying signs.
In Colorado - also worrying signs although they are clawing it back.
I think the silent majority that the media is ignoring will show up election day. For example, I have a friend at work that hasn’t voted for a good while, but he’s going to do his part to keep Hill out.
I live in Iredell County, NC Obama got 35% and the lines are long
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