Posted on 11/02/2016 3:51:41 AM PDT by expat_panama
FBI Director James Comey may or may not have bungled the investigation of Hillary Clinton's email, depending on one's point of view, but his October surprise on Friday did bolster the argument that stocks are in for a bout of selling if Donald Trump is elected.
Just how much major stock indexes would fall is unclear, with various estimates ranging from about 5% to 12%. But those estimates came before the S&P sank 0.7% on Tuesday to a near-four-month low amid Trump's continued rise in the polls. The size of a Clinton relief rally is likely to be much smaller because markets have priced in the likelihood — though a diminishing one — of a Clinton victory...
...financial market ripples have been modest because Trump has remained a significant underdog throughout the campaign, with markets pricing in more or less tail risk of a Trump presidency as his prospects rise and fall.
The latest turn hit markets at 1 p.m. ET on Friday, sending the S&P 500 down 1% over the next hour...
...Gold shares were the rare beneficiaries of Trump's revived hopes, with Newmont Mining (NEM) shares jumping 3.5% in little over an hour. Gold stocks have continued to rally.
IBD'S TAKE: Divided government, still the election's most likely outcome, was good for the stock market under President Obama and Bill Clinton, but will it be again? Quite possibly, but...
...a Trump win would cause stocks to fall 8%, while a Clinton victory would lead to a 2% rise.
Yet such predictions carry a high degree of uncertainty and depend on other electoral outcomes. For example, markets may be more happy with Clinton as president if Republicans control the House and...
(Excerpt) Read more at investors.com ...
Good morning! The Halloween candy may already be gone but for investors it's gotten more scary than before. We've punched down below support to a 4-month low in higher volume, the IBD still calls it "Uptrend under pressure" but the distribution day count now stands at 8 for both the Nasdaq and the S&P.
Futures traders are downbeat for today's action, down -0.09% this morning on stock indexes but they're also -0.26 for metals even tho gold and silver are now up to $1,295.78 and $18.54.
How about this:
FOMC Day Today is FOMC Day. Will the markets finally decide on market direction? Read on to learn more...
--and that's for not until this afternoon. Meanwhile we got:
7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index
8:15 AM ADP Employment Change
10:30 AM Crude Inventories
2:00 PM FOMC Rate Decision
--and all this stuff:
With So Much Good News, Why Am I Cautious? - Byron Wien, Blackstone
Models Informing Central Bankers Are Mostly Bunk - Judy Shelton, TWS
Don't Believe the Earnings Recovery - Anthony Mirhaydari, The Fiscal Times
Market Fear Factor Rises as Election Tightens - Wallace Witkowski, MW
Most of What You Think About Investing Is Wrong - Lawrence Hamtil, FF
How Blockchain Could Prevent Rigged Vote - Brian Kelly,RealClearMarkets
Trump Could Live Tax Free Until He Dies - David Cay Johnston, Daily Beast
The Agony of Obamacare Collapse Has Just Begun - Michael Tanner, Cato
Good News: 35% of Federal Gov't Workers May Quit - Editorial, Investor's [FR thread here]
Surge of Competition-Busting Mergers - Steven Davidoff, New York Times
How U.S. Trade Deals Sell Out American Workers - Sherrod Brown, USAT
Higher Walls Alone Will Not Fix Immigration - Kristie De Pena, RCPolicy
This smear sheet represents the global crony capitalist class which has been wrecking America under the last 4 presidents. They are struggling for a 5th.
Stocks falling on Trump popularity is either coincidental, indicitive of operator stupidity or there is a game in play we serfs know nothing about.
It should be no surprise that the candidate of Wall St would make stocks rise. OTOH the candidate of Main St will cause an adjustment in economy from short term financial shenanigans to long term growth. The growth will take at least a year to result in Wall St profits since Main St (ordinary workers) will benefit first.
Roundabout way to say Clinton is Wall Street’s candidate?
IBD = Chamber of Commerce & No Borders
Agree. From what level? The day after election or the past three months?
I believe it will fall temporarily, as it is a propped up market giving a false picture of the economy.
Once all of the money starts flowing in from overseas, and companies crank up, there will be many buying opportunities and the market will be a real reflection of the economy.
Once resettled, it will take off.
She'd hate your saying that, but w/ investing "Wall Street" is about four blocks of 8-inch asphalt and it neither votes nor trades. There's a lot of empty buzz about which election results will do what and whether most stock traders are Dems, but while most stock trades are done by folks at home, most stocks are traded by institutions each w/ their own agenda.
My agenda is getting rich buying when morons sell because they think Republicans are going to kill everyone.
The FBI said?
No matter who said what the article is pure supposition. Jabs in the dark and means little of nothing.
Like so many of us, these people just have to have something to write about every day. If a business writer does not spew out some prognostication about the market daily there is no job for him and so they do spew out great gobs of pabulum.
Economic forecasting is hardly in the FBI's purview. Sounds like dem propaganda.
What happens when QE #37 is finished?
Where’s that guy with the manure truck when you need him?
Don’t know but my garden needs several loads. There seems to be plenty being scattered around this week but it is the wrong kind. Too ripe.
Ha, no way. Stocks will rise when Trump wins. The reason they fell after the latest email announcement is because people are afraid of a Clinton win.
If Trump wins, the stock market will go through the roof.
Those who know, as opposed to those who have their heads stuck up their *sses, understand that Trump would be the best thing that’s happened to business and commerce in a decade.
It’s a testimony to the hardiness of the American economy that it’s survived at all through these dark obama years.
The Drudge headline is actually about the stock market dropping before an election is an omen that the candidate from the party that is not currently in the white house will win, so the stock market is predicting a Trump victory.
it has been a pretty good predictor for a long time. The stock market likes stability, not based on partisan politics.
I think it might fall at the start, the only thing pumping it up right now is govt spending.
In the long run, a great economy will help it go up.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.