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Clinton's Lead Shrinks To 1 Point As Voters React To The FBI's Email Bombshell
IBD ^ | October 31, 2016 | IBD

Posted on 10/31/2016 3:02:30 AM PDT by FlyingFish

Clinton's Lead Shrinks To 1 Point As Voters React To The FBI's Email Bombshell

Hillary Clinton's lead over Donald Trump has all but disappeared since the email scandal exploded on the scene Friday. She currently holds a 1-point lead — 45% to 44% — in a four-way race, according to the latest IBD/TIPP presidential tracking poll. Just two days ago, Clinton's lead over Trump had reached 4 points.

Support for Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson continues to ebb as the election nears, with his support dropping to just 4%. Green Party candidate Jill Stein is at 2%.

In a two-way matchup that excludes Johnson and Stein, Clinton's lead over Trump is now less than 2 points — 45.1% to 43.4%. (The unrounded numbers for the four-way race have Clinton at 44.7%, Trump at 43.7%, Johnson at 4.2%, and Stein at 2.3%.)

The FBI's bombshell announcement on Friday is clearly driving a shift in voter sentiment.

(Excerpt) Read more at investors.com ...


TOPICS:
KEYWORDS: 2016polls; poll
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To: GrandJediMasterYoda
Trolling for Hillary? Most people haven't voted yet. The polls are shifting in Trump's favor at the right time. You are just spewing garbage from CNN pundits.
21 posted on 10/31/2016 3:29:18 AM PDT by Helicondelta (Deplorable)
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To: GrandJediMasterYoda

Its going to be R +2.

IBD and other polls are way off in their voter turnout estimate.

They’re in the tank for Hillary to such an extent they ignore the underlying data to favor their ideological bias.

Last time they were this way off was in 2014 and we all know how it turned out.


22 posted on 10/31/2016 3:30:05 AM PDT by goldstategop ((In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever))
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To: Mad Dawgg

If Weiner had longer hair he would look like Iggy Pop!


23 posted on 10/31/2016 3:31:06 AM PDT by donozark (It is true after all. Hillary Clinton really IS the Fouke Monster)
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To: GrandJediMasterYoda

You need to offer a secret hand-shake before making a post like that one.

You sound like a Hillary staffer trying to imitate right-wing talking points.


24 posted on 10/31/2016 3:31:49 AM PDT by cgbg (Another World War I veteran for Hillary!)
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To: GrandJediMasterYoda
Averaging polls is the best way to minimize random errors. However, if there are systematic errors of the same kind averaging several polls does not get you any closer to the correct result.

It looks like almost all polling institutes have decided on a D+5% to D+7% model. That is as much as or more than Obama got.

The only way you can even come close to that result with a very unpopular candidate like Clinton is either that Trump scares so many voters, or that they try to correct for vote fraud.

Personally, I do not buy any of those arguments.

25 posted on 10/31/2016 3:33:01 AM PDT by ScaniaBoy (Part of the Right Wing Research & Attack Machine)
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To: SauronOfMordor

And fraud.


26 posted on 10/31/2016 3:36:23 AM PDT by aquila48
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To: Mad Dawgg

How many US state secrets could be in the Weiner hard drive given the viruses, Malware, Spyware etc from the sites this pervert visits.


27 posted on 10/31/2016 3:38:06 AM PDT by RonnG
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To: FlyingFish

MSM is using these latest Clinton Crime family scandals as an opportunity to bring their bogus polls more in line with reality.

Don’t buy it for a minute.

Trump was ahead the whole time.


28 posted on 10/31/2016 3:38:50 AM PDT by SamAdams76 (HRC's only chance to win is to discourage Trump voters. We Vote, we WIN! Simple as that.)
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To: GrandJediMasterYoda

Watch where they are travelling and not travelling. That speaks volumes about which states are now in contention. Trump is travelling to NM, CO and MI. Clinton is in Florida and NC. If MI, NM and CO are in contention, it’s Trump on election night, and Trump early.


29 posted on 10/31/2016 3:39:35 AM PDT by FlyingFish
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Hillary never had a lead, all her leads was because of Dem oversampling D+8 D+9 LOL


30 posted on 10/31/2016 3:40:33 AM PDT by KavMan
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To: tatown

Who is LS?


31 posted on 10/31/2016 3:41:42 AM PDT by eekitsagreek
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To: BlueStateRightist

..Thanks I was going to ask what the sampling was...


32 posted on 10/31/2016 3:42:16 AM PDT by Doogle (( USAF.68-73..8th TFW Ubon Thailand..never store a threat you should have eliminated)))
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To: aquila48

Up to this point in our history voting fraud has traditionally been limited to specific urban areas and specific precincts within those cities.

The good news is that many of the northeast and Midwest cities where voter fraud is a major issue have lost significant population in recent years. That limits the damage that can be done in the electoral college.

One example to watch on the 8th is Michigan. Detroit has lost 70% of its population since the 1960s and is now a mcuh smaller percentage of the total Michigan vote. That is one reason I believe Trump will stump the “experts” and win the state.


33 posted on 10/31/2016 3:42:32 AM PDT by cgbg (Another World War I veteran for Hillary!)
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To: ScaniaBoy

It has to be ideological.

Ignoring data or reinterpreting it to fit with they hope will happen.

Jake Novak wrote about it about a couple of months ago and termed the effect groupthink or confirmation bias.

They’re all liberals and they all think alike and none of them check the other assumptions to be sure they still match with reality.

During World II, Allied military brass did the same thing by dismissing signs right in front of them the Germans were prepped for a breakout offensive in the Ardennes.

That intelligence blunder cost thousands of lives. The pollsters’ blunder at worst will cost Hillary the election.


34 posted on 10/31/2016 3:43:35 AM PDT by goldstategop ((In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever))
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To: FlyingFish

If they are having to reweight by 12 Pts - a massive shift - just to show tied - wow


35 posted on 10/31/2016 3:45:09 AM PDT by rb22982
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To: RonnG

I think Huma and Hillary will try and dump this in Weiner’s lap. I think that Weiner is trying to make a deal so he won’t end up in Fort Marcy Park.


36 posted on 10/31/2016 3:48:01 AM PDT by Mad Dawgg (If you're going to deny my 1st Amendment rights then I must proceed to the 2nd one...)
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To: Helicondelta
Trolling for Hillary? Most people haven't voted yet. The polls are shifting in Trump's favor at the right time. You are just spewing garbage from CNN pundits.

Indeed. It seems that whenever someone posts a positive thread on here, it isn't long before the moaners appear.

I've learned that the best thing to do is just focus on the positive article and not even bother to read any of the comments, because apparently some folks here never found a parade they didn't want to rain on. ;)

37 posted on 10/31/2016 3:50:05 AM PDT by rissole
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To: FlyingFish
Clinton's Lead..


38 posted on 10/31/2016 3:50:23 AM PDT by tomkat (we are legion .. we are pissed .. and we are coming !)
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To: goldstategop
The pollsters’ blunder at worst will cost Hillary the election.

And we won't be too sad about that, will we? :-)

Seriously though, I agree, it has to be groupthink.

I have really tried hard to see it from their point of view, but with the internet figures (views on YouTube, twitter, FB etc etc), the numbers attending the rallies,the real data of early voting (not "exit polls"), and the comparison between the 2008, 2012 and the present election I cannot come to any other conclusion that the majority of the pollsters are sleepwalking into an election night as infamous as the Truman/Dewey one.

39 posted on 10/31/2016 3:53:48 AM PDT by ScaniaBoy (Part of the Right Wing Research & Attack Machine)
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To: FlyingFish
They are lying.

As I understand it, the IBD poll was finding an R+1 in its responses, so they reweighted it to D+7. This immediately forced the IBD poll into showing Clinton with a lead she hadn't had in their poll for a long time.

It appears they are “unreweighing” gradually, as of today.

40 posted on 10/31/2016 3:55:15 AM PDT by ConservativeMind ("Humane" = "Don't pen up pets or eat meat, but allow infanticides, abortion, and euthanasia.")
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