Posted on 10/29/2016 7:23:00 PM PDT by 11th_VA
Through the first full week of general election early voting in 2016, the numbers are looking a lot like 2012.
With some rural tallies from Friday still uncounted, Democrats hold a lead of about 28,500 votes over Republicans, according to the Nevada secretary of state’s website.
That number will likely drop slightly once all of the counties have reported as the rural counties lean Republican. Democrats held a lead of 28,652 after the first week in 2012....
And despite the raw-vote lead for Democrats statewide and in Clark County, the state went GOP for the Senate (Dean Heller) and 3rd Congressional District (Joe Heck) that year.
So even with a significant raw-vote lead for the Democratic party all the way through Election Day in 2012, Republicans still managed to hang on for key victories.
About 380,000 Nevadans voted in the first week between in-person and mail-in ballots. That’s about 26 percent of the active voters in the state.
Both parties are turning out roughly the same percentage of their voter base. Statewide, 29 percent of Democrats have voted as have 28 percent of registered Republicans.
In Clark County, where roughly 69 percent of the state’s voting population resides, that number sits at 28 percent for both major parties.
Should that trend continue the next week, Democrats would end the early voting period with a similar lead they enjoyed in 2012, when they headed into Election Day with a raw-voter lead of about 48,000.
(Excerpt) Read more at m.reviewjournal.com ...
*TRUMP BUMP*
?
This is actually good sigh as the first few days were poor for the GOP. Mail in ballots in NC were same thing (and still are) but then skyrocketed with in person voting.
Just asking. If it’s trending the same as the first week in 2012 and obama won, how is that good?
I WANT it to be good.
The house and senate repubs won, romney lost
That number will likely drop slightly once all of the counties have reported as the rural counties lean Republican. Democrats held a lead of 28,652 after the first week in 2012....
OK. Thanks.
I’m getting lost in all the numbers and percentages and polls and now the email thing!!
PLEASE GOD let TRUMP WIN!!
I did not see anything about Independents. They have been favoring Republicans.
FL, NC, and OH aren’t even close. NV is close. We’re gonna win MI and PA anyway, but I’d like to win NV too if we can. Don’t sweat it. We got this. :-)
We voted early yesterday in Reno, long line and the workers there said that it’s been very long lines all week.
I’m in Reno. It’s now 4 times that someone has come to my place looking for a previous tenant. They won’t give up. Hillary’s people.
Awesome - though probably lots of union workers in Reno
Tell them you’re the guy and vote for Trump. :p
If Trump wins MI and PA, he’ll carry much more. I’m looking for signs of a wave - each article I see hints ...
Trump won Nevada with more votes for himself than the total votes of all candidates combined in 2012. Trump set a record total vote in the primary in history of GOP.
Trump won over 1550 delegate votes in a fair and wild 17 person field, he only needed 1237 to win.
So the only reason he isn’t way ahead is Gov. Sandoval, Sen.Heller, Cong. Heck and Hardy who bailed on Trump or never supported him.
I think Trump will win, because Indies and the Trump get out the vote drive will get his vote to the polls.
Next, we get rid of Big Tax Sandoval who gave us Nevada’s largest tax hike. He has done nothing to discourage illegals, Nevada is a sanctuary state
The wave is coming. :-)
Well, if it’s 12, it ain’t good.
But I don’t think this is quite accurate. Early vote +28,000 lead, yes, but Rs have a 2,000 absentee lead.
Check this, but I think the real total lead is less than 26,000.
If this article is using the latest early voting turnout statistics report from the Nevada SOS, that report has data gaps in it for red counties for this past Friday (blank fields). Looking at typical weekday turnout for those, I expect Republicans would have another 5,000 ballots submitted when this “week 1” report is complete. So if you account for that, I think Republicans are outperforming Democrats by an additional 2.5%, compared to 2012. I’d say 3.0-3.5% gap in total change from 2012. It’s something. Tomorrow or Monday the data in the report will be complete.
Reagan won with Dem votes, not all Dems are voting for the witch. Trump has a rally in Vegas Sunday. I predict a huge event.
I reviewed it again..Looks more like 4,00-4,500 votes (not 5,000). I’d say then 2.0-2.5% improvement from 2012. THat said, need to go a long way in NV from 2012 as Romney lost by so much.
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