Thanks to Travis McGee.
Posted on 10/25/2016 5:43:45 PM PDT by bryan999
Want a tough job? Try being a pollster two weeks before Election Day.
Donald Trump is ripping pollsters and the media, arguing the surveys are biased against him because many include too many Democrats in their sampling surveys.
Conservative news sites have pounced on Trump’s arguments, pointing to a trio of national polls that show the race between the Republican presidential nominee and Democrat Hillary Clinton is a toss-up.
Trump and his supporters argue that mainstream pollsters are under-sampling Republicans to account for a rise in independents, while failing to account for an enthusiasm gap that favors Trump or the new voters he could bring into the fold.
(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...
I hate to see conservatives like Hannity getting depressed over Trump’s chances, believing the phony polls.
Hannity’s been a regular Debbie Downer the past two days.
Who the heck are these dim bulbs that base their vote, or even if they will vote or not, on what one stranger supposedly tells another over the phone?
Like is their just a certain segment of the dumbest swing voters who always vote for the perceived most popular candidate or what? Or not voting because your pick is supposedly behind or so far ahead it won’t matter?
Freegards
Polls are tools used to rig the system. Simple, cheap, and virtually impossible to get caught.
He got his orders
I thought Hannity sort of backtracked today. I know he opened his show saying he got his butt kicked by listeners for his negative attitude.
So did Laura Ingram!
The marching orders went out.
If the polls are on the up and up, then let both sides into the polling operation to monitor the process.
Never happen, because polls are paid for and designer results expected.
Levin a downer, too. Folks, He’s GOING to win.
Later in today’s show Hannity tried to justify his pessimistic comments by saying he tells his listeners the truth as he sees it, and not what they may want to hear.
Hannity’s been upbeat until the last few days, so I was very surprised at his recent pessimism.
The crepe hangers need to just STFU, go sit in a corner, and cry and leave the rest of us alone.
Lets just post the Trump Anthem to the spineless here and ignore everything/everyone that hangs crepe.
He lives in the FOX CNNews bubble and they are sure it is over. He and Laura are impossible to listen to.
Pray America wakes
They just really get me mad, nopardons.
“We really don’t know whose going to vote yet and that makes it more volatile,” said pollster John Zogby. “There are no likely scenario here.”
That is precisely what he was saying in 2008.
The Stock Market has baked in a Hillary Win / No Change election result.
The Donald will melt that perception instantly. There will be chaos, and a short brutal downturn.
Great opportunity to invest!
Thanks to Travis McGee.
Special Report
How Carter Beat Reagan
Washington Post admits polling was “in-kind contribution”; New York Times agenda polling.
By Jeffrey Lord – 9.25.12
Dick Morris is right.
Here’s something Dick Morris doesn’t mention. And he’s charitable.
Remember when Jimmy Carter beat Ronald Reagan in 1980?
That’s right. Jimmy Carter beat Ronald Reagan in 1980.
In a series of nine stories in 1980 on “Crucial States” — battleground states as they are known today — the New York Times repeatedly told readers then-President Carter was in a close and decidedly winnable race with the former California governor. And used polling data from the New York Times/CBS polls to back up its stories.
Four years later, it was the Washington Post that played the polling game — and when called out by Reagan campaign manager Ed Rollins a famous Post executive called his paper’s polling an “in-kind contribution to the Mondale campaign.” Mondale, of course, being then-President Reagan’s 1984 opponent and Carter’s vice president.
All of which will doubtless serve as a reminder of just how blatantly polling data is manipulated by liberal media — used essentially as a political weapon to support the liberal of the moment, whether Jimmy Carter in 1980, Walter Mondale in 1984 — or Barack Obama in 2012.
First the Times in 1980 and how it played the polling game.
The states involved, and the datelines for the stories:
· California — October 6, 1980
· Texas — October 8, 1980
· Pennsylvania — October 10, 1980
· Illinois — October 13, 1980
· Ohio — October 15, 1980
· New Jersey — October 16, 1980
· Florida — October 19, 1980
· New York — October 21, 1980
· Michigan — October 23, 1980
Of these nine only one was depicted as “likely” for Reagan: Reagan’s own California. A second — New Jersey — was presented as a state that “appears to support” Reagan.
The Times led their readers to believe that each of the remaining seven states were “close” — or the Times had Carter leading outright.
In every single case the Times was proven grossly wrong on election day. Reagan in fact carried every one of the nine states.
Here is how the Times played the game with the seven of the nine states in question.
• Texas: In a story datelined October 8 from Houston, the Times headlined:
Texas Looming as a Close Battle Between President and Reagan
The Reagan-Carter race in Texas, the paper claimed, had “suddenly tightened and now shapes up as a close, bruising battle to the finish.” The paper said “a New York Times/CBS News Poll, the second of seven in crucial big states, showing the Reagan-Carter race now a virtual dead heat despite a string of earlier polls on both sides that had shown the state leaning toward Mr. Reagan.”
The narrative? It was like the famous scene in the Wizard of Oz where Dorothy and her friends stare in astonishment as dog Toto pulls back the curtain in the wizard’s lair to reveal merely a man bellowing through a microphone. Causing the startled “wizard” caught in the act to frantically start yelling, “Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain!” In the case of the Times in its look at Texas in October of 1980 the paper dismissed “a string of earlier polls on both sides” that repeatedly showed Texas going for Reagan.
Instead, the Times presented this data:
A survey of 1,050 registered voters, weighted to form a probable electorate, gave Mr. Carter 40 percent support, Mr. Reagan 39 percent, John. B. Anderson, the independent candidate, 3 percent, and 18 percent were undecided. The survey, conducted by telephone from Oct. 1 to Oct. 6, has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
In other words, the race in Texas is close, assures the Times, with Carter actually in the lead.
What happened? Reagan beat Carter by over 13 points. It wasn’t even close to close.
http://spectator.org/articles/34732/how-carter-beat-reagan
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