Posted on 10/25/2016 8:50:14 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
It is a fact that fewer people answer pollsters questions than ever before. More than this, the one data point that is NEVER reported is a poll’s response rate. There is good reason for this omission.
Earlier this year, the Pew Research firm reported that since the late 1990s the rate of response to pollsters requests for a few minutes to answer their questions has fallen from just under 40% to around 9%.
This means that to get even 1000 responses, given some technical problems they must make about 11000 calls and that says nothing about the demographic breakdowns they want. This pushes the number of calls up dramatically.
Yes they use machines; and yes that cuts down the time and cost of conducting these surveys; but these factors do point to a kind of “devil’s workshop” for dishonest news outlets that conduct these polls.
At the beginning of the year when this article about Pew’s findings was written, we didn’t KNOW what we KNOW about the truth of poll manipulation that we KNOW today.
Wikileaks emails have proved Democrats rig polls. In the last few days wiki leaks proved that John Podesta, Clinton’s campaign manager, referenced a company named Atlas while discussed how they could use over/under sampling, skipping certain groups altogether and skipping certain sections of the country to shape the results of a poll.
Does it seem so much of a stretch that these polls will concentrate on calling favorable groups? A ridiculous Arizona poll showing Hilary Clinton with a small lead also showed the polling company used double the number of Democrats and double the number of college graduates to get the results it wanted.
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/10/media-corruption-hillary-5-points-az-poll-interviewed-nearly-twice-many-democrats-republicans/
So if, on the one hand, the task of actually getting people to answer pollsters has become so difficult; and on the other hand making note of who answers with the kind of responses pollsters want to hear has become so easy, why would these dishonest people not cheat?
Commenting on the significance of the “non- response” rate the Pew representative said "less-educated people and people of color are less likely to participate in polls, and people who aren’t politically active are less likely to answer political surveys.”
He continued saying he concluded that “most of these biases can be corrected through demographic weighting of the sort that is nearly universally used by pollsters.”
Since a substantial portion of Trump’s support is from less-educated, never voters or returning voters and we now KNOW polls are fixed, we must ask how will they “correct” these numbers?
He closed by saying, “Strangely, for some reason that no one really understands, well-done probability samples seem to have retained their representative character despite the meager response rate."
"No one really understands?” Let’s make that “No one really UNDERSTOOD.”
Another polling company executive said, “While the issue [of low response to pollsters] remains a looming problem for the polling industry, there’s little evidence that it had much of an impact on the latest high-profile polling miss — the Iowa Republican caucus. Instead, data suggests much of the blame likely rests on inaccurate assumptions of who would turn out to vote, and a “seismic shift” in opinion during the final days of the campaign. While pollsters and forecasters missed the outcome, many warned in advance that the results would be especially hard to predict.”
Amen.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/polling-when-people-dont-answer-phones_us_56b3b06ee4b04f9b57d8e014
The underlying assumption is that if you have the “right” proportion of white/black/Hispanic and the right proportion of men/women for each, and the right proportions of young/old and married/unmarried, or if you can correct for discrepancies, then you know what is really happening.
The fundamental flaw here is that those who choose to answer are different from those who (1) are too busy to answer, or (2) don’t trust the system enough to answer. In previous years, we knew how big those errors were likely to be and in what direction. This year, the response rate is way down and we have no clue what the unknown errors are.
Pollsters have turned to Internet-based surveys, more so in 2016 than previous years. These have their own built-in Dem lean as e.g. welfare recipients and other such idle hands tend to busy themselves with them more than most folk. Couple that with absurd voter participation models and the Clinton campaign thumb on the scale and you get a Clinton landslide... in the fictional world of polling. This election is uncharted territory.
It comes from the ever-diminishing pool of individuals who still answer calls from unknown numbers instead of presuming it’s another credit card/loan scam-spam call.
When I worked in campaigns (local) back in the day we did not ask people if they were registered—we compared their names to registration lists.
People notoriously claim they are registered when they are not, because they want to appear to be “good citizens”.
They lie to friends about it as well.
If you live in a battle ground state, please volunteer to be a poll watcher in your community. One of the best way’s to determine if there has been fraud, is to participate in the exit polls. If they are more than a few percentage points off that is grounds for contention.
We need to keep an eye on our election, don’t let them steal it from us!
ALSO. Remember to wear RED when you vote as an added visual of who is voting for Trump, every little bit helps.
I have been doing you.gov polls for years. I do not care for some of the questions but answer them anyway.
The data comes out of their traitorous a$$.
I have recently retired, and am "in house" much more than previously. I typically get at least one or two calls per day in spite of being on the do not call list. Those calls are almost always timed to be at or near "lunchtime".
But this morning, for the first time EVER, I got two junk calls before 8AM. I am considering having the answering machine pick up after two rings on ALL incoming calls, and ONLY calling back those who actually leave a name, number, and subject.
The MSMLSD people do what they do. Lie.
Polls say whatever they want them to. Elections are really hard to steal when you chosen candidate get only 10% of the vote so you have to convince the voter that everyone voted for the loser so when they count the votes it look like the polls were correct.
Come on people the only difference in our government and any other banana Republic is the economy produced enough prosperity that the elites were able to give us a little more than most. I questioned how all the things I observed as a kid after WW II that was happening in Russia and wondered if that could ever happen here. Well wonder no more because the pie is being sliced much thinner because of all the pie eaters we are bringing here.
All the tinfoil hatters have told you for years that our government is only loosely controlled by elected officials we put in office, now maybe you will begin to collect some tinfoil for yourself.
Your problem is you think it was bad data, it was the data they wanted to produce the result you got. Cloward Piven were real and their goals live.
B$ Push polls just lead to where they want to be. I had a democratic Congressman office call last week and I asked if he were a Trump supporter. The caller protested that the congressman was a democrat so I told her I only vote for Trump supporters.
Hook a fax machine to you pone for the next few weeks works every time.
How to get more conservatives in polling groups:
* Does anyone in your family do surveys for money or points? Make sure they do the political surveys, too, which are often posed as economic or issues surveys.
* When you are visiting a university, check the bulletin boards for requests for people to participate in surveys or studies. They tend to pull from the local community, disproportionately liberal students and professors and staff.
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