Posted on 10/23/2016 2:06:35 PM PDT by rb22982
In 2012, the polls coming out were relatively tight. I pulled in the last week and change from RCP for 2012 and here is what I show.
2012 Poll Margin / Obama Lead
Politico/GWU/Battleground 0%
IBD/TIPP 1%
Rasmussen Reports -1%
CNN/Opinion Research 0%
Gallup -1%
ABC News/Wash Post 3%
Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun 0%
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl -1%
Pew Research -3%
FOX News 0%
Standard Deviation 1.5%
Now, compare to the same time period today
2016 Poll Margin / Clinton Lead
IBD/TIPP Tracking -2%
Rasmussen Reports -2%
PPD -1%
LA Times 0%
Economist/YouGov 4%
Reuters/Ipsos 4%
ABC News/Wash Post 4%
FOX News 6%
NBC News/SM 6%
Quinnipiac 7%
Bloomberg 9%
CBS News 9%
Boston Globe 10%
NBC News/WSJ 11%
ABC News Tracking 12%
Monmouth 12%
Std Deviation 4.9%
Why has the standard deviation of these polls more than tripled? In 2012, with this group there only a 4 point variance at the most favorable to Romney and the most favorable to Obama. In 2016, there is a 14 point variance!! Here is my speculation
1) Fewer and fewer people are answering the phone or even have a landline. Cell phone lists aren't random and the area code doesn't tell you where they are living.
2) Polling on the internet is, to some degree, the wild wild west. The reason phone worked is because everyone had a landline and you could randomly dial and know where they were located. Email database
3) Roughly 90% of RV will tell posters they plan to vote but only 60-65% actually vote. Deciding who is voting is an art
4) People will lie about who they are voting. I suspect at least a few Trump supporters are doing this.
5) Looking at the list of polls above, it's painfully obvious the most anti-Trump polls are all MSM polls.
One way or the other, a lot of pollsters are going to have egg on their faces in a couple of weeks
The poll question they should be asking is whether career criminal Clinton becoming president might cause millions of citizens to revolt and take the law into their own hands.
In my mind, either Trump becomes president, or the time for Revolution 2 has arrived. The career criminal Clintons running this nation is not an option.
The poll question they should be asking is whether career criminal Clinton becoming president might cause millions of citizens to revolt and take the law into their own hands.
In my mind, either Trump becomes president, or the time for Revolution 2 has arrived. The career criminal Clintons running this nation is not an option.
Trump is having 6 rally’s over 3 days in Florida.
Trump seems to draw his biggest crowds in Florida. So I think it’s optics to show Trump with huge rallies and support. He’s trying to maintain momentum.
The pollsters have pulled out all the stops just like their colleagues the MSM. Do anything necessary to get the beast elected, even if that means having egg on face come the final vote.
“He has a very narrow path to an electoral win. He basically has to run the table with the swing states of Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, and Nevada. Hard to do but certainly not impossible.”
If he wins some of these states: Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Virginia, or PA he can lose one of those.
Iowa is in the Trump camp as is one of the Maine congressional districts. Trump is not going to win Virginia, Michigan, or Pennsylvania and doesn't need to if he wins the states I mentioned. All are of those are within reach.
He has as good of a shot at winning VA, PA, and MI as he does Colorado.
I disagree with that.
I’ve been following elections since 1968. Been involved with politics for a long time. Trump will carry Romney’s states (which includes NC) plus Florida and Ohio. He then needs Nevada, Iowa and either Virginia or Colorado to win. If he wins Colorado and Virginia then he needs either Iowa or Nevada. He won’t carry Wisconsin, PA, NH, or Michigan It’s that simple if the election is close which I think it will be. Turnout will probably be D+4. Third Party candidates will be a factor in Colorado.
I’ve been wrong before. I hope I am wrong.
I will be voting.
I was right about PA and MI.
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