Posted on 10/23/2016 9:52:19 AM PDT by right-wingin_It
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
Don’t worry about it. The RCP average is always wrong. Won’t be any different this year.
I used to trust RCP. No more.
I never trusted the underlying polls that RCP aggregates, but I expect RCP to be consistent in their aggregation of them.
Reuters supports Hillary.
I used to trust RCP. No more.
++++
As the say: “Garbage In, Garbage Out”.
When it first started, RCP was great. Now, it has been manipulated to resemble a laundering scheme. Whereas one outrageous poll can be discredited for what it is, when you run it into the RCP laundry machine it becomes part of the “clean” composite.
I think what happened is people became poll crazy. Maybe because its because of social media and poll popularity. But there are so many “scientific polls” out there now. Every university and non profit has to have a poll, and all the non-news media has to have theirs too. RCP has been flooded with garbage. I agree.
The last two friday releases were from the Reuters website and look to be 7 day rolling averages.When releases have come from the ipsos website it’s been a 5 day rolling average. RCP has been using the 5 day from ipsos and posts a link to a pdf with detail. the 10-14 release included postvideo/predebate data whereas a five day wouldn’t have included that.RCP didn’t use that 10-14 poll either. I don’t know why they appear to be creating different versions of the same poll.
RCPs final average before the 2012 election was Obama: 48.8 and Romney: 48.1.
The actual election result was Obama: 51.1 and Romney 47.2.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html
realclearpolitics arrives at its average by sticking with the same group of polling organizations which represent a mix of different types of polls: major media: ABC, FOX News, NBC, CBS; private pollsters: Gravis/Brietbart, Rasmussen Reports, Selzer/Bloomberg and Pew Research, university polling institutes: Quinnipiac U., Monmouth U. and George Washington U/Battleground and news services: Investors Business Daily/TIPP, Reuters/IPSOS, and Economist/YouGov.
Friday and close of the week. Look for it to be included Monday.
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