Posted on 10/23/2016 9:07:22 AM PDT by Helicondelta
The latest ABC News poll has Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 12 points.
What the media will not tell you is that 9% more Democrats than Republicans were sampled in the poll.
“Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 36-27-31 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents.”
GOP primary turnout was up 62% this year while Democrat primary turnout was down 21% this year.
Playing with polls is a common Democrat-media propaganda tactic:
Here are the 3 Daily Tracking Polls that have been almost perfectly in sync almost every day. IBD was most accurate in 2012:
IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll Sunday Trump 43% Clinton 41%
LA Times Daily Tracking Poll… Sunday Trump 44.4% Clinton 44.1%
Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll Friday Trump 42% Clinton 40%
Average– Trump +1.43
(Excerpt) Read more at thegatewaypundit.com ...
Frank Luntz, the fat b*stard with the awful toupee, is taking shots at IBD/TIPP. He’s as unbearable as Turd Blossom.
Annnnd that’s why millions upon millions of Muslims and illegals are coming in..Dems need 51% of the population poor and they will always vote democrat
Hitlary’s puppy dog Huma makes me sick. She acts like a paid caregiver.. No wait, AN AGENT OF THE U.N./NWO CABAL ENSURING HITLARY DO AND SAY EVERYTHING THEY WANT HER TO IN ORDER TO FINISH THE DESTRUCTION OF AMERICA THEY SO DESPERATELY NEED TO ENSURE THE ISLAMIZATION OF THE WORLD.
I have always been baffled by people who take pride in manipulating awards for themselves that they didn't earn. It is curious to me how Barack Obama and Al Gore proudly display their Nobel Prizes and are comfortable knowing their names will be associated with the award forever.
Even more curious to me are the entertainer/propagandists in media who give each other awards for nothing on a rotating basis.
None of the other tracking polls show such a wide swing in public opinion.
Anecdotal data and common sense observation tells us that by late October, people’s vote is already settled.
Think about why Trump isn’t running expensive political TV commercials? He knows that its wasted money and people who can’t be reached any way won’t vote.
And unlike Mitt, he knows spamming people is not the way to get them to vote on your behalf.
If Hillary was really ahead by double digits -shouldn’t she and Huma be cracking broad grins, laughing and having bubblies?
That’s a tell right there - and not a tell you associate with a confident, winning candidate.
Their body language gives the game away.
If you say Trump when a pollster calls, they hang up on you and record your response for Hillary.
So people lie and tell them what they want to hear.
What do you really expect from a liars’ poll?
That’s true here with the ridiculous D+ oversampling and everything else.
Its fiction.
Over sampling can occur, and you can see that in the internals, but what you can not see is the turnout model used by the polling agencies. You can over sample Dems, but if your turnout model has Dems voting at a lower rate than Reps, it will not be that important.
I feel these polls are using a turnout model that favors Dem turnout by a great deal.
Already debunked. D + turnout not happening in FL and NC.
So what happens to the D + 2012 turnout model assumption if Ds aren’t turning out like they should?
Don’t forget polls can’t measure enthusiasm - which is a predictor of which candidate ultimately wins an election.
I think they are oversampling independents, too - and that many of those independents are actually Democrats lying about their true affiliation.
Yup. So it could actually be D +14 - which would explain Hillary being where she is in their poll.
Ain’t gonna happen. Never happened in the entire history of modern presidential elections.
That is the outfit she had on when she tried to joke about proving her stamina because she stood on a stage with Trump for a total of 4 1/2 hours. She doesn’t appear full of vigor in that picture.
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