Posted on 10/21/2016 4:19:43 AM PDT by expat_panama
China on Tuesday reported its economy grew 6.7% during the third quarter. Nothing suspicious about that, except it's the third quarter in a row that it grew at exactly 6.7%. As Fortune.com wondered, what are the odds?
The answer to that last question is: pretty low. Given the natural volatility in economic data, getting exactly the same number three quarters in a row is highly unlikely -- though not impossible. But it underscores what analysts, economists and even some high-level Chinese officials have said for years -- China's economic data are cooked and can't be trusted.
Of course, China each year produces a "forecast" for the coming year. But calling it that is not quite right. It's more a piece of political wish fulfillment...
...China's economic bureaucrats "forecast" that GDP would grow "not less than 6.5%...
...China's "growth" is largely a result of a debt-fueled building binge...
...total debt in China has soared past 250% of GDP -- a level virtually all economists agree is unsustainable...
...China's economy is as much as 36% smaller than official data show...
...China isn't likely to ever catch the U.S. in standard of living...
...talking about China's GDP can be a fruitless exercise if you put too much faith in Chinese data. And, no, this isn't China-bashing. China's move under Deng Xiaoping in 1979 toward a market-based system for much of its economy was responsible for China becoming what it is today. But a little skepticism of the never-ending Chinese growth miracle will go a long way, especially if you're a businessperson or an investor.
(Excerpt) Read more at investors.com ...
Meanwhile, the Pearl River Delta community has grown to 68 million people and is the thirteenth largest economy in the world.
Number 14 is Russia
The PRD is the same size as Vermont and New Hampshire combined.
Chinese financial reports, chinese academic records, chinese statistics, chinese audits... what do they have in common? I wonder how much of Apple's claim as being the most profitable company in the world is based on Chinese accounting.
Probably the odds are the same as Hillary winning 6 straight coin flips.
It’s just hard to imagine a country cooking the numbers to try to make the government look good. Who would ever do that?
Unfortunately we live in a age where all governments, corporations, large non-profits, special interest groups, universities (oh, I repeated myself!) et al lie and lie and lie and lie—about everything.
We are in the world of John Carpenter’s classic sci-fi film “They Live” which was, of course, a takeoff on “They Lie”.
Plotline—aliens take over TV broadcasting to promise “we come in peace”. :-)
“China on Tuesday reported its economy grew 6.7% during the third quarter. Nothing suspicious about that”
It’s not necessarily that they are cheating. Their whole public statistic system is a crap. One needs to take a look at car sales or container port traffic (which are “hard” data, not estimates of any kind) to see what’s really going on there. Chinese themselves don’t know what the size of their economy is. They are not cheating, they are guessing.
I think to keep it, you need to practice. In small business, and in personal real life relationships, being truthful goes far beyond signing letters 'sincerely yours'.
It's at the heart of every fundamental civilized human relation. And yet groups of people get together and decide to blow any concept of being honest, openly. Where everyone knows its boloney. No leaders step in to challenge, whether it's with them, or against them. It's acceptable
Sorry. I'm starting to sound like an old person.
That's my take too, that they're guessing and they pretty much know it. I get a bit tired of U.S. pundits that strut out what the "true" China GDP is. Like they know the 'truth' and we don't.
It is interesting—but in one on one relationships in the real world most people are great.
On the rare occasion where people try to lie I just slam dunk them and call them on it. (I am _very_ persuasive and they back off _fast_.)
It is only when we start dealing with large institutions that things go haywire.
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