Posted on 10/20/2016 9:34:52 AM PDT by rb22982
Trump: 43
Clinton: 41
Johnson: 7
Stein: 4
Undecided: 5
(Excerpt) Read more at peoplespunditdaily.com ...
7 day average I believe
Rasmussen went from +2 Trump to +7 Clinton back to +3 Trump in about a week so who knows.
Election is now a little over two weeks away. Time for the polls to start reflecting reality so that polling outfits retain some credibility.
Romney was looking pretty good in several polls right up to the election in 2012, then Obama clobbered him.
Romney had the full support of his party. Trump is getting backstabbed by them. We need all hands on deck and right now we’re not getting them.
Yes but I don't remember a 10 pint swing within a few days and this is happening with many polls.
It just seems very strange.
Good news.
Pray this continues.
Obama was able to get his voters out.
And Mitt phoned it in during the second debate.
Also IBD/TIPP. Trump maintains his 1 point lead there as well.
I don’t find it suspicious on its face... and here’s why:
The question is, what is causing the movement.
If the movement is being caused because more or less people are voicing their preference verses claiming I am not going to tell you, then yes, this sort of movement would be normal.. large swings as folks who have a preference, but are just angry, or tired or mad, decide to just say Eff you I don’t want to talk about it right now... This would cause some major swings to show up depending on the news of the day.. but the reality is, you aren’t seeing large amount of folks really change their preference, they are just willing or unwilling to admit or talk to them.
This is what I expect.. I don’t thing Trump majorly lost 5 or 6 points worth of support following the boreish comments, but I do think folks who were supporting him, took an I don’t want to talk about it approach for a while.. ...
Now if it its I am getting 100% responding every single poll and its swinging 6 or 8 points over a week, then you only get that, when folks switch sides, and I really don’t think that’s happening at all.
The polls showing Hillary up near or more than 10 points are laughable on its face... just like polls showing Trump underperforming Mondale are equally laughable.
As I have said for a long long time... This election has only 3 possible outcomes... Trump absolutely blows it out of the water and wins in a major landslide.. which he was clearly on track for before the bus video.... (and in spite of the polls may still be very much on track for).
Or it was going to be a squeaker election that could go either way.
I personally believe Trump still has very strong and far more support than the trolls have been showing.. most of (not all, but most of) the polls showing Hillary up big have some major obvious sampling problems... most have been relying on vast oversampling of women... others huge oversampling of Dems... But if you noticed, all of them all of them always show an 10+ point enthusiasm gap in Trump’s favor, and that’s because they can’t manipulate that out of the poll.. even if you only interview 10 people who say they are going to vote for Trump vs 100 who say they will vote for Hillary... Trump supporters will always show more enthusiasm that Hillary supporters.. you can’t manipulate that out of the poll.
I think Trump did very well in last nights debate, even moreso than the previous debates, he showed himself as reasonable, calm, and measured... I think the temperment argument has been removed... those who were still holding out support out of fear of Trump being too wild or angry or etc.. I think are more than satisfied at this point.
I would expect polling to continue in his direction, short of some other crazy event between now and the election.
Hillary did not avail herself well at all last night, she didn’t fall apart, and Trump did not knock her out, but she really offered nothing... SHe couldn’t and didn’t even directly refute or deny some of the most damning allegations against her... Pay for Play and Hiring thugs to beat up people at Trump rallies.. she tried to pivot when responding to them, but never once flatly denied either allegation. She fell back on canned talking points again and again, and offered no real reason to vote for her.
While the debate really didn’t have any fireworks, she was beaten not only on points, but in the fact that Trump came across very calm, thoughtful and reasonable.
Yes the press spin is going to be about whatever they can make it in her favor... but the folks who watched, and were holding out Trump support but wanting to vote for him will be fine doing so. HOnestly, it was probably his best debate performance from that measure.
The thing about the USC poll in particular is it is a good baseline, because it is the same folks day in and day out, it gives you a good baseline... instead of just random polling by whoever whenever... by that baseline its obvious that the race tightened after the comments.. but was that tightening, folks moving their vote, or dropping out of responding in disgust/anger/etc.?
My suspicion is that the internals will show it was the latter, and as they start responding again to the poll as it dies down, Trump’s lead will reassert itself.
There’s a mistake in the chart...IBD/TIPP has Trump up one today...no change from yesterday:
http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/
Do you have link to the UPI poll?
I want it to be the top story EVERYWHERE..she gave away nuclear secrets..ANYONE else would be done, finished, finito, but hey its Hillary Clinton, the media’s little darling
I’m in the DC area and this story is getting hot.
I hope it does..because what she did that is CRIMINAL
Just remember, polls come to you, or you go to them. How many people being polled in the comfort of their own homes, or on the internet, will go out and physically vote..
Given how much the media, the eGOP, and other establishment is against Trump, how is Hillary not 20 points ahead? What does that say about Trump? What does that say about Hillary?
No comparison to Romney. Romney didn’t fight, didn’t have this kind of Trump-following.
Hillary has never had the Obama level support, or enthusiasm.
I really dont understand these polls, most of the other polls are the opposite. Either the polls are complete junk, or we are being deluded.
hell 538 has her WAY ahead :(, i know that isnt a poll but thats a damn big spread. At least if it was 60/40 or something you could say ok good shot MOE or something...
None of which were mentioned on Murdoch News. Truman had his newspaper that said "Dewey Defeats Truman". Trump has the entire media establishment saying Clinton has the election locked up.
I think the problem with polling is multiple fold.
1) Getting the right sample. Landlines were historically the best way but now only about 60% of the country has a landline, only 7% of people respond to calls and around 30% of people lie about their intention on whether or not they will vote
2) You can take your subgroups from #1 and then forecast an electoral mix by demographic based on response from #1 but that typically assumes turnout similar to the last couple of elections which may or may not be the case.
3) Internet polling - same issues - you have to have the right email database of a representative sample, get those people to agree to take the poll and then weight them proportional to your expected demographic turnout.
That doesn't even count issues like the Bradley effect among others. It's an art as much as it is as science.
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