I think the problem with polling is multiple fold.
1) Getting the right sample. Landlines were historically the best way but now only about 60% of the country has a landline, only 7% of people respond to calls and around 30% of people lie about their intention on whether or not they will vote
2) You can take your subgroups from #1 and then forecast an electoral mix by demographic based on response from #1 but that typically assumes turnout similar to the last couple of elections which may or may not be the case.
3) Internet polling - same issues - you have to have the right email database of a representative sample, get those people to agree to take the poll and then weight them proportional to your expected demographic turnout.
That doesn't even count issues like the Bradley effect among others. It's an art as much as it is as science.
“1) Getting the right sample. Landlines were historically the best way but now only about 60% of the country has a landline, only 7% of people respond to calls and around 30% of people lie about their intention on whether or not they will vote
2) You can take your subgroups from #1 and then forecast an electoral mix by demographic based on response from #1 but that typically assumes turnout similar to the last couple of elections which may or may not be the case.
3) Internet polling - same issues - you have to have the right email database of a representative sample, get those people to agree to take the poll and then weight them proportional to your expected demographic turnout.”
And they call democratic places that can’t vote. I actually received a poll call two nights ago. I asked them if they knew where the 671 Area Code was and if they knew that citizens of US territories could not vote? They politely hung up on me.
I hope you’re right. I voted yesterday in Ga, and if everyone thinks the AA vote is going to stay home, I’d say they are dead wrong. I figured there would be minimal people there... there were a TON! for the middle of the day and middle of the week I was shocked...
I got a really bad feeling about this...