Uh, White NON-college graduates. i.e. rednecks? ;-)
Screwed that up, I meant to go 42% — 42%
Oh well it does not change the rest of my fact findings.
Be aware being far behind with blacks is okay. 70-30 behind would be magnificient.
99-1 would not be.
Poor Erick Erickson and red state
That non-college educated gets it far more than college educated do, is a major indictment of our higher education system.
if you could just squeeze out a little more of that magic for Va, Colorado and Penn it would be greatly appreciated..
How many white males didn’t have a college degree in 1980 vs. Today? (both percentage of population, and total number)
The question is will they show up to vote?
Historical perspective on D/R/I splits and voting percentages. Source, Cornell University Roper Center
From their studies, I show first the D / R actual result, then the D / R / I party split of those who voted in each election followed by how those party voters actually voted, and finally the race breakdown and how they voted.
act vote party reg
Year D/R/3rd D/R/I D D/R R D/R I D / R
1980 41/51/8 43/28/23 67/27/6 11/85/4 31/56/13
1984 41/59 38/35/26 74/26 7/93 36/64
1988 46/53 37/35/26 83/17 8/92 43/57
1992 43/37/19 38/35/27 77/10/13 10/73/17 38/32/30
1996 49/41/9 40/35/22 85/10/5 13/81/6 44/37/18
2000 48/48 39/35/29 87/11 8/91 46/48
2004 48/51 37/37/26 89/11 6/93 50/48
2008 53/45 39/32/29 89/10 9/90 52/44
2012 51/47 38/32/29 92/ 7 6/93 45/50
Race
Year White D/R AA D/R Hisp D/R Asian D/R
1980 88 36/56/8 10 83/14/3 2 56/37/7
1984 86 34/66 10 91/9 3 66/34
1988 85 40/60 10 89/11 3 70/30
1992 87 39/41/21 8 83/10/7 2 61/25/14 1 31/55/15
1996 83 44/46/9 10 84/12/4 5 73/21/6 1 44/48/8
2000 81 42/55 10 90/9 7 62/35 2 55/41
2004 77 41/58 11 88/11 8 53/44 2 56/43
2008 74 43/55 13 95/4 9 67/31 2 62/35
2012 72 39/59 13 93/6 10 71/27 3 73/26
So folks, you can play along at home. Pick the ratio of D / R / I turnout, race turnout splits, how those groups vote
and see what kind of outcome you get.
Personally, I’m going with 37/37/26 with D split 85/15 R split 10/90 and I 42/56 resulting in Trump winning 53 / 46.
One problem with your analysis - non-Hispanic white non college educated voters are a MUCH smaller portion of the electorate than they were in 1980 or 1984. Putting up Reagan era margins on a group that is of declining importance doesn’t get us there.
How could a black woman look at Hillary and be excited about voting for her, especially on the heels of electing Obama twice?
I don’t trust polls, even when they’re good news. I just can’t believe Hillary could possibly break 20%. Who could possibly want her to be president except criminals?
Very good news.
Go Trump!
How can this be a tie, if the white non-degreed give him a 27 pt lead? Since 75% of the nation is white about 37% is male and about 70% do not have college degrees. That right there is approximately 26% of the total population. He only gets 15% of the rest of the categories? Don’t believe it for a minute
I still find it funny that Democrats call this group the "working class" when they vote for Democrats but "ignorant, rednecks, uneducated idiots" when they vote for Republicans.
Reagan was also polling 6 points behind Carter in Oct. of 1980. I was around 17 at the time and it was just unbelievable, I think Reagan got 450 electoral votes and Carter got 50. I doubt it will be a landslide, if Trump even wins, but man-oh-man, I would LOVE to see a repeat of that. What a message that would make. THE PEOPLE WILL NOT STAND FOR CORRUPTION!
There are huge categories of people who should not be allowed to vote.
I would have thought Reagan’s showing with non-college whites would have been even better in 1984, when he won an even bigger landslide, and one of the biggest in history.