Historical perspective on D/R/I splits and voting percentages. Source, Cornell University Roper Center
From their studies, I show first the D / R actual result, then the D / R / I party split of those who voted in each election followed by how those party voters actually voted, and finally the race breakdown and how they voted.
act vote party reg
Year D/R/3rd D/R/I D D/R R D/R I D / R
1980 41/51/8 43/28/23 67/27/6 11/85/4 31/56/13
1984 41/59 38/35/26 74/26 7/93 36/64
1988 46/53 37/35/26 83/17 8/92 43/57
1992 43/37/19 38/35/27 77/10/13 10/73/17 38/32/30
1996 49/41/9 40/35/22 85/10/5 13/81/6 44/37/18
2000 48/48 39/35/29 87/11 8/91 46/48
2004 48/51 37/37/26 89/11 6/93 50/48
2008 53/45 39/32/29 89/10 9/90 52/44
2012 51/47 38/32/29 92/ 7 6/93 45/50
Race
Year White D/R AA D/R Hisp D/R Asian D/R
1980 88 36/56/8 10 83/14/3 2 56/37/7
1984 86 34/66 10 91/9 3 66/34
1988 85 40/60 10 89/11 3 70/30
1992 87 39/41/21 8 83/10/7 2 61/25/14 1 31/55/15
1996 83 44/46/9 10 84/12/4 5 73/21/6 1 44/48/8
2000 81 42/55 10 90/9 7 62/35 2 55/41
2004 77 41/58 11 88/11 8 53/44 2 56/43
2008 74 43/55 13 95/4 9 67/31 2 62/35
2012 72 39/59 13 93/6 10 71/27 3 73/26
So folks, you can play along at home. Pick the ratio of D / R / I turnout, race turnout splits, how those groups vote
and see what kind of outcome you get.
Personally, I’m going with 37/37/26 with D split 85/15 R split 10/90 and I 42/56 resulting in Trump winning 53 / 46.
Pat, can I have an R for 300, please.
According to your prediction, you have 0% Democrats voting for independents, 0% Republicans voting for independents, and only 4% of independents voting for independents. That’s an unrealistic prediction. My predictions are:
37% Democrat, 35% Republican, and 28% Independent by party affiliation.
For the Democrats, 85% vote for Clinton, 15% vote for Trump, and 0% vote for independents.
For the Republicans, 85% vote for Trump, 15% vote for Clinton, and 0% vote for independents.
For the Independents, 35% vote for Clinton, 45% vote for Trump, and 20% vote for independents.
Clinton wins (0.37)(0.85) + (0.35)(0.15)+ (0.28)(0.35) = 46.5%
Trump wins (0.37)(0.15) + (0.35)(0.85) + (0.28)(0.45) = 47.9%
Everybody else(Gary Johnson, Jill Stein, and the others) wins (0.37)(0) + (0.35)(0) + (0.28)(0.20) = 5.6%