According to your prediction, you have 0% Democrats voting for independents, 0% Republicans voting for independents, and only 4% of independents voting for independents. That’s an unrealistic prediction. My predictions are:
37% Democrat, 35% Republican, and 28% Independent by party affiliation.
For the Democrats, 85% vote for Clinton, 15% vote for Trump, and 0% vote for independents.
For the Republicans, 85% vote for Trump, 15% vote for Clinton, and 0% vote for independents.
For the Independents, 35% vote for Clinton, 45% vote for Trump, and 20% vote for independents.
Clinton wins (0.37)(0.85) + (0.35)(0.15)+ (0.28)(0.35) = 46.5%
Trump wins (0.37)(0.15) + (0.35)(0.85) + (0.28)(0.45) = 47.9%
Everybody else(Gary Johnson, Jill Stein, and the others) wins (0.37)(0) + (0.35)(0) + (0.28)(0.20) = 5.6%
I like your math @63 and it’s as sound as anything else I have read. I don’t think people should have much trust in these polls that are fluctuating wildly this close to the election. When I see these polls saying she is up 7 from down 3 for a 10 pt swing my BS meter pegs.
Trump is in this thing - of that, I have no doubt. The real question for me is “can Hillary and the DNC crank up the same machine that propelled Obama to victory and almost elected Gore?”
Even the left admits that there is not much in the way of enthusiasm for Hillary, but they have found the votes they needed. If it is a big turn-out for Trump and a mediocre turn-out for her we will be happy. If she gets the turn-out that Obama did we will not be happy.