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Could Trump Pull A Brexit-Style Surprise In November?
Investor's Business Daily ^ | 10/17/2016 | John Merline

Posted on 10/17/2016 4:13:58 AM PDT by IBD editorial writer

Anyone who is certain that the presidential polls taken today are solid evidence of a Hillary Clinton victory over Donald Trump in November might want to take a look at what happened in the U.K.'s "Brexit" vote just a few months ago.

In the week before voters decided whether Britain should leave the European Union, all but two of nine polls showed the "remain" side winning. One gave the remain side a 10-point lead, 55% to 45%. Others had remain up anywhere from eight to two points. Even exit polls suggested that the U.K. would decide to stay in the EU.

Final tally: leave 52%, remain 48%.

The results left pollsters, and many others, scratching their heads. "Many are wondering how, in an age of unprecedented information and data, could the majority of polls predict a wrong outcome," is how CNBC put it.

You don't have to go across the Atlantic to find examples of pollsters getting election outcomes wildly wrong. During the Democratic primaries, pollsters were sure that Hillary Clinton would win in Michigan. The Real Clear Politics average of poll results had Clinton crushing Bernie Sanders by 21 points — 58% to 37%. The FiveThirtyEight blog gave Sanders less than a 1% chance of winning.

(Excerpt) Read more at investors.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Editorial; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: brexit; clinton; hillary; polls; trump; trumplandslidecoming
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To: dowcaet
.... it’s clear the Dems and media are a massive psyops operation to discourage our side.....

And they are very good at the agit-prop.....like practiced criminals.

They are salivating to see the right engage in civil unrest so that Boobamba can declare martial law.

This is Third World thinking......Obama got all his ideas about governance in Kenya. The lefties will say “We told you this was going to happen.

Pay no mind....they are salivating to see the right engage in civil unrest so that Boobamba can declare martial law. Don't take the bait.

========================================

PASS IT ALONG-—the Clintons and their acolytes revealed in WikiLeaks sound disturbingly like practiced criminals plotting their next scam. Normal, law-abiding people do not think and act like they do.

PROOF POSITIVE Shockingly, these people do not even recognize they are in the throes of criminal behavior. They are completely oblivious to US laws, our values..... and they could care less about other people.....exactly like ruthless criminals. We need to have a criminal behavior expert analyze the WikiLeaks content.

61 posted on 10/17/2016 7:38:09 AM PDT by Liz (SAFE PLACE? A liberal's mind. Nothing's there. Nothing penetrates it.)
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To: KavMan

You WANT people who are MAD AS HELL to be fired up and pushing hard when they believe they’re behind and fighting for their very lives (Trump supporters, 4 attacks on Clinton whiners and traitors. Clinton thugs, 600+ attacks on Trump supporters, one shooting, one firebombing. This is an election in which the lives of the people on one side truly do depend on winning.)

Let Ed agree. The people are going to get VERY angry with this lunacy and fight back.

I was a 3rd party guy until the violence and smears started showing up, and I’ve moved from solidly 3rd party to broken-glass Trump supporter.


62 posted on 10/17/2016 8:02:22 AM PDT by spacewarp (FreeRepublic, Rush's show prep since foundation.)
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To: IBD editorial writer

Yes!


63 posted on 10/17/2016 8:10:39 AM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: 9YearLurker

The alleged + 24 Dem skew may be ALL Dems (43) v. just STRONG GOP (19). Not the right way to look at it.


64 posted on 10/17/2016 8:14:25 AM PDT by BohDaThone
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To: IBD editorial writer

YES!


65 posted on 10/17/2016 8:21:46 AM PDT by Salvation ("With God all things are possible." Matthew 19:26)
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To: Jeff Chandler

Jeff, keep posting the 1980 stats. Lots of people here were not around for the 1980 election. We seem to be repeating 1980 and I do feel there is a great chance that Trump will do the same as Reagan.


66 posted on 10/17/2016 8:40:45 AM PDT by nicksaunt
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To: upchuck

Guys, I think you need to understand something... if the dems are going to rely on fraud.. its NOT going to be universal.. it won’t be 5 points of fraud.. it will be targeted fraud in certain states...

Trump can win the popular vote by 8 and still have selective fraud in certain states cost EC votes...

I have no doubt the left will cheat, its what they do, but this is either going to be a blowout or a squeaker... There is a Monster Vote, or there isn’t.. If there is Trump blows it away if its a squeaker fraud could sway the election.

A few more weeks and this is over one way or another... I personally have believed in the monster vote from day one, and have seen nothing to convince me that it does not exist.

I do not believe any poll showing Hillary up high single or double digits.

Time will tell if I am simply self delusional or not.

I really cannot believe that anyone who has not committed to Hillary long ago will do so on election day.

Every poll, even the ones where Trump too a hit from the comments, did not show an increase in support for Clinton, just a drop in support for Trump... Come election day I expect fully well the majory of Americans will choose Trump, even if they don’t personally like him or his style, because while he’s can be perceived as a jackass, he’s a jackass who is our jackass... and a jackass who’s got your back, is better than a criminal who has her own.


67 posted on 10/17/2016 9:21:12 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: IBD editorial writer

Hillary is running as the incumbent in this race, ie. 4 more years of Obama. Yet even in her best polling she is getting 43-45%. That is a losing performance, no question about it.
Add in the reverse Wilder effect (people will not admit to strangers they are voting for Trump) and HRC loses big.


68 posted on 10/17/2016 3:38:19 PM PDT by Kenny500c
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To: IBD editorial writer

I think only the pollsters were shocked by the Brexit results.

And when Donald Trump wins by a healthy margin only the pollsters, the lame-stream-media and the Dims will be shocked.


69 posted on 10/17/2016 5:37:48 PM PDT by GGpaX4DumpedTea
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To: tomkat

Yup, and we all need to make sure the Monster Vote makes it to the polls.


70 posted on 10/17/2016 5:44:32 PM PDT by Gene Eric (Don't be a statist!)
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To: IBD editorial writer

He sure could coordinate with governors and major businesses and utility companies for a Brexit-style exit of the productive areas of the USA. If the rebel states have the ability to leave tens of millions of loyalists without power, water, or food in the space of a day we’ll have a far better position to bargain from. The loyalists won’t be interested in a Pyrrhic victory and their noncombatants will be pretty eager for a solution that maintains their status quo after, say, all of New York goes dark for a few hours as a demonstration.


71 posted on 10/18/2016 11:22:52 PM PDT by Laser_Ray
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