Could Trump Pull A Brexit-Style Surprise In November?

Investor's Business Daily ^ | 10/17/2016 | John Merline

[IBD editorial writer]

Anyone who is certain that the presidential polls taken today are solid evidence of a Hillary Clinton victory over Donald Trump in November might want to take a look at what happened in the U.K.'s "Brexit" vote just a few months ago.

In the week before voters decided whether Britain should leave the European Union, all but two of nine polls showed the "remain" side winning. One gave the remain side a 10-point lead, 55% to 45%. Others had remain up anywhere from eight to two points. Even exit polls suggested that the U.K. would decide to stay in the EU.

Final tally: leave 52%, remain 48%.

The results left pollsters, and many others, scratching their heads. "Many are wondering how, in an age of unprecedented information and data, could the majority of polls predict a wrong outcome," is how CNBC put it.

You don't have to go across the Atlantic to find examples of pollsters getting election outcomes wildly wrong. During the Democratic primaries, pollsters were sure that Hillary Clinton would win in Michigan. The Real Clear Politics average of poll results had Clinton crushing Bernie Sanders by 21 points — 58% to 37%. The FiveThirtyEight blog gave Sanders less than a 1% chance of winning.

[tomkat]

It was so much fun watching the BBC after the vote. Their reporters were stunned at the outcome.

Ain't that the truth !
I watched a bunch of it as well, and the schadenfreude was simply delicious !

And thanks for the first-hand vignette .. hope you had a great time over there   :-)

[tomkat]

Hillary ends up on meat hook

Now there is a visual to start the week off with a smile !

[Alter Kaker]

For sure? Jersey hasn’t gone for a Republican in 28 years. And while polling isn’t always accurate, not a single poll has shown Trump within the margin of error.

[bella1]

Thanks, we did have a great time and enjoyed the history. First time over there.

In retrospect, what I find interesting is that when we asked people how they voted, even though they voted to Leave, they were pretty downcast believing that the Stay vote would win. I'm finding a similar situation here; voting for Trump but not sure if he will win based on the polls. We need to stay strong and not be deterred.

[rb22982]

I think some people are starting to take the D #s / R #s or D%/ R% rather than D % - R%, although I'm not sure why - especially since they are comparing them to D % - R% historical #s.

[rb22982]

Rasmussen now has Hillary backup +2

[upchuck]

Trump by about 8

He'll need at least that to overcome the massive, massive voter fraud we all know is coming.

If Trump wins by eight, the fraud will cut it to two or three.

[tomkat]

             

[SamAdams76]

Whoever wrote this piece is buying into the narrative that a Trump win would be a "Brexit surprise."

I don't buy it. I believe that Donald Trump is ahead and would win if the election is held today. This is why the Democrats are so desperately trying to smear Trump and cause his followers to turn against him. The Democrats are frightened because many, many women are voting for Donald Trump and they thought with Crooked Hillary, that they would OWN the women vote. This is why they have trotted out the Gloria Allred's of the world with their decades-old accusations. They decided to do this even at the risk of blowback on the way Crooked Hillary treated the victims of Bill Clinton's sexual transgressions. They are desperate.

If Crooked Hillary was really comfortably ahead, as their lackeys in the press would have us believe, they would be running a relaxed and confident campaign.

I'm sure much worse is to come over the next three weeks as it increasingly dawns on them that Trump is going to win, despite their 24/7 attack.

[KavMan]

What if the Polls are correct? Tjhat scares the fcuk outta me!!!

[Neidermeyer]

Investors Business Daily is as “straight news” as they come. It’s not a Clinton front.

[Buckeye McFrog]

I don’t talk to pollsters.

And if pressed, I will lie.

That soiled underwear look on the faces of journ-o-lists on election night is the best entertainment TV has to offer any more.

[JesusIsLord]

Personally I think the Hillary campaign and her liberal media enablers are overdoing it with the “Hillary has the race in the bag.

The "it's in the bag narrative" will backfire because it serves to keep unenthusiastic Dem votes home. The Donald camp will not be discouraged by the Gestapo's propaganda. We will come out and vote in force and with God's grace - win!

[Mr. Douglas]

I live in KY. Matt was down in the polls by 5 on election day. He won by 9.

[9YearLurker]

There is a well-known phenomenon of more voters after the fact reporting that they voted for the presidential winner than actually did—so that sort of self-reporting to some degree needs to be discounted: http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2009/06/lies_damn_lies_and_votes_for_obama.html and http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/10/the_bush_landsl.html

This poll reported (below) a split between strong and not strong Democrats/Republicans of 34/26. I see that as off by a couple of points from either registration or actual voters in 2012. So I think you could discount the gap they found by a couple of points there.

Not in terms of polling, but in terms of legitimate election-day votes, I think there is still a pro-Trump enthusiasm gap. But that shouldn’t necessarily go into how they weight or balance their respondents—and I think that effect could well be negated by Democrat fraud.

This is also a joint Dem/GOPe poll with a bias on both sides against Trump IMO (why else the odd question as to whether voters would like to vote for Republicans in Congress to balance out Hillary as president?)

But later in the poll, self-identification as to liberal, moderate or conservative is just a couple of points biased toward liberal from what Gallup found earlier this year: http://www.gallup.com/poll/188129/conservatives-hang-ideology-lead-thread.aspx

The percentage identifying as fundamentalist Christian is also pretty much in line with that found among Americans generally. This to me suggests the poll is indeed only a couple of points biased in sample toward Hillary. Yes, people are probably less likely to admit to supporting Trump. Yes, he may thus or as well get a bit more of the undecided or current third-party vote. Yes, these pollsters likely are working to produce results, in these couple of weeks especially, that bias toward Hillary.

But I don’t see a shred of evidence that they are sampling anywhere near a +24 Democrat skew.

Here is the Dem/GOP voter id question from the poll:

Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Democrat, a Republican, an independent, or something else? (IF “DEMOCRAT” OR “REPUBLICAN,” ASK:) Would you call yourself a strong (Democrat/Republican) or not a very strong (Democrat/Republican)? (IF “NOT SURE,” CODE AS “NOT VERY STRONG DEMOCRAT/REPUBLICAN.”) (IF “INDEPENDENT,” ASK:) Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party, closer to the Democratic Party, or do you think of yourself as strictly independent? (IF “NOT SURE,” CODE AS “STRICTLY INDEPENDENT.”)
Strong Democrat.............26
Not very strong Democrat....8
Independent/lean Democrat...9
Strictly Independent........12
Independent/lean Republican.10
Not very strong Republican..7
Strong Republican ..........19
Other (VOL).................5
Not sure ...................4

https://www.scribd.com/document/327067170/161027-NBCWSJ-October-N-500-Poll

[Jeff Chandler]

I don’t mean to spam but this needs to be seen.
.
October/November
Reagan Carter Anderson
40% 44% 9%
39% 45% 9%
47% 44% 8%
Actual result
51% 41% 7%

[sheana]

So funny. I just got through telling Hubby that the Dems have imported so many new voters they’ve finally outnumbered us. I believe it to be true. Obama’s reelection proved it to me. Not sure it can be overcome.

[Little Ray]

Geez, I hope so.
But the fraud and stupidity are so strong in our country.

[trebb]

He certainly has more enthusiasm among his base than Hillary does. He has touched people at a visceral level and she only has Party loyalty working for her.

Noted that Yahoo Finance has an article about how Wall Street is starting to talk about "A big democrat sweep" - what else does one need to understand that Hillary is for the folks who manipulate the markets to the demise of the middle class?

[servantboy777]

What's sad, AZ and WI voters had an opportunity to send {{shock waves}} through the republican good ol boy establishment by “Cantoring” Ryan and McCain and furthering a popular uprising against the corruption in D.C..........but the DIDN'T. This would have helped propel Trump.

Thanx a bunch AZ/WI, way to help out.