Could Trump Pull A Brexit-Style Surprise In November?

Investor's Business Daily ^ | 10/17/2016 | John Merline

[IBD editorial writer]

Anyone who is certain that the presidential polls taken today are solid evidence of a Hillary Clinton victory over Donald Trump in November might want to take a look at what happened in the U.K.'s "Brexit" vote just a few months ago.

In the week before voters decided whether Britain should leave the European Union, all but two of nine polls showed the "remain" side winning. One gave the remain side a 10-point lead, 55% to 45%. Others had remain up anywhere from eight to two points. Even exit polls suggested that the U.K. would decide to stay in the EU.

Final tally: leave 52%, remain 48%.

The results left pollsters, and many others, scratching their heads. "Many are wondering how, in an age of unprecedented information and data, could the majority of polls predict a wrong outcome," is how CNBC put it.

You don't have to go across the Atlantic to find examples of pollsters getting election outcomes wildly wrong. During the Democratic primaries, pollsters were sure that Hillary Clinton would win in Michigan. The Real Clear Politics average of poll results had Clinton crushing Bernie Sanders by 21 points — 58% to 37%. The FiveThirtyEight blog gave Sanders less than a 1% chance of winning.

[wastoute]

They sure are, I voted on one in the primary a couple months ago.

[jazminerose]

And relying on the 2012 turnout model.

[Biggirl]

I am still confident that Trump will win it.

[Biggirl]

You got that right.

[kevslisababy]

I have a white male co-worker, aged 55, very pro Trump, who received a a robo polling phone call.

He is counted on the polls now as a black 18 y/o female who loves Hillary.

Who knows how many are doing this?

[KavMan]

F**ken IDIOT GOP Strategist Ed Rollin basically agreeing with the Polling & saying TRUMP is behind, he even says the FOX News Poll is the most reliable where TRUMP is down 7

Not once did he ever mention the rediculous D+ Samples!!!!

[wastoute]

Go back and look at the, “Who did you vote for...” question. That question ALONE was 14 or 16 +D vs R. Then look at “new voters”. 15 points. Does anyone think new voters are gonna break even? Of course not. I give one third to Trump. There is 24 to 26 RIGHT THERE.

BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE! That poll claimed 2 points for I CAN’T REMEMBER. Really? Does anyone, and I mean ANYONE believe that? Split these two however you wish but I have made my point. This poll is giving Hillary a 24 point, conservatively, head start. Which is what it takes for her to win by 11. QED, she is tanking.

[apillar]

Really where do you folks get this info? D+24? Lol. Why not D+40?

It was D+7 of D+9, depending how you classify the soft D and R support

But even D+7 or D+9 seems a great stretch, the electorate was D+6 in 2012. The pollsters are actually claiming that Hillary is going to motivate democrats to vote for her to a greater degree than Obama did in 2012?!? I just don't see it, every poll I've seen shows MUCH greater motivation on the Republican side. Will it be enough for Trump to win? Who knows? But even if you cut the polls democrat advantage in half to a D+3 or D+4, then many of the polls (such as the Washington Post poll become a tie), and if you predict the electorate will look more like a midterm (R+2) then Trump actually has a substantial lead....

[ArcadeQuarters]

Yes. Next question.

[petercooper]

Kaine got 50 people at a rally!! 50!!!

[econjack]

My biggest worry is voter fraud. Here in Cincinnati, we saw bus loads of “voters” brought in during the 2012 election. One poll worker bragged openly that she voted for Obozo six times in that election. She’s in jail, but I fear that doesn’t stop the problem, but simply drives it under ground. Intimidation was rampant in some areas; 108% of registered voters in a Philly precinct voted for him.

I fear for this Republic as nothing will bring it down faster than a realization that our votes don’t matter.

[jazminerose]

Wow. That many?

[HamiltonJay]

Trump up 2 with 5% “undecided”. According to Ras.... TPP and UC Dornlife all show about the same thing. I expect undecideds to break heavy Trump, and yes I do believe in the Monster vote and have from day one.

Trump by about 8

[Phillyred]

Turnout! That is our path to victory! They aren’t going to have lines around buildings of blacks going in to vote for an old white elite.

[Drew68]

If the voting in the US was not rigged, Donald Trump would win in a landslide.

We did nothing for 50 years as the Democrats imported millions of new voters from the third world and then we blame their election victories on rigged voting?

[FreedomPoster]

Matt Bevin won the gubernatorial race 2 years ago in KY. Almost all the polls gave the race to his opponent.

You don’t see much about that race, this cycle.

Bevin is very much an outsider, TEA Party kind of guy. Ran in the Republican Party primary two years previous to that against Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and had a respectable showing.

[Liz]

One time Cong/House leader Eric Cantor lost big-time under similar conditions. His opponent Brat was from nowhere----never ran for office----in an uphill race against Majority Leader Boehner's right-hand man. Then-House Leader, Eric Cantor (R-Va), was considered untouchable and his reelection inevitable.

Is Hillary another Eric Cantor in the making? The defeat of Eric Cantor detailed:

<><> the showboating Cantor had tons of money---spent 26X times his opponent's $100K.

<><> Cantor consistently polled an astounding 34 points ahead of his unknown opponent.

<><> Cantor was considered "inevitable" and "untouchable".

<><> Cantor had no ethics problems.

<><> Cantor sucked-up to an anti-tea party group.

<><> Cantor sucked up to the latino vote.

<><> Cantor showboated his leadership---was deeply into (gag) "diversity."

=============================================

BY CONTRAST CANTOR'S PRIMARY OPPONENT:

<><> Brat ran as Cantor's TERM LIMIT

<><> Brat roundly opposed, and was vociferous against amnesty.

<><> Brat ran as a staunch conservative (now in Congress he has a bonafide 100% conservative rating.)

<><> On election day, Brat got 18,000 more Repub out to the polls than the previous election that elected Cantor.

================================================

CANTOR IN DEFEAT----DUMBFOUNDED:

HERE'S THE KICKER Cantor ran high-priced ads
delineating his opponent's "inferior" positions... but
voters liked what they heard and came out in droves for Brat.

[Road Warrior ‘04]

Could Trump Pull A Brexit-Style Surprise In November?

BET ON IT!

[dowcaet]

We’re a month out of the election and we have the media already doing the victory dance with their rigged polls. I’m tired of all this pessimism on our side when it’s clear the Dems and media are doing a massive psyops operation to discourage our side. Thank God the Founding Fathers and the Continental Army had guts and fortitude in 1776, or we would still be pledging allegiance to the Queen just like Canada. We’re gonna get it done. The country depends on it.

[CincyRichieRich]

Only surprising to those moronic enough to believe polls.

On CNN this morning, the closed captioning wasn’t on, so I didn’t hear it/read it, but the Wikileaks emails were featured for 10 minutes!

Even it they spent 10 minutes taking down Assange and how it is illegal to read them, at least they were talked about for 10 minutes.

Pigs are flying; even Jill Stein seems to be a friend lately.