Posted on 10/17/2016 12:11:59 AM PDT by BlessedBeGod
National polls don’t mean much now,Florida,North Carolina,Nevada,Utah matter more,has to win those.
Don’t agree much with Kuntz but the 5 points he made on transformed today are right on in my opinion,if at the next debate shows some self deprecation,asks the audience who do you really think is going to bring real change to Washington after 3 decades of Clinton and her cronies,don’t go on about women.
NBC poll was D+7 (is D+9, depends on “soft” D and R support)
WashPost/ABC was D+2.
Any other numbers out there are just flat out misrepresentations. Period
Especially the sillly D+19 number for NBC poll
I’m not validating any of the results- they are media polls after all... but confirming the samples THEY say they used... not some derived figures we came up with to artificially make us feel better about the race
Utah is NOT in play... if it was, we would be in a huge amount of trouble
Last 2 polls there showed Trump comfortably ahead... Yesterday’a poll had him up 17.. Hillary may even come in 3rd, behind Egg McMuffin
Thanks for posting this each morning. I usually get up once in the night (around 4:00) check the site for the poll result, then come here to see the discussion when I get up for the day
“...polling places are rigged...”
Maybe its legit - maybe Trump is aware of the fact that Soros has a 30% ownership of the electronic voting machines.
I have no way to verify if this is true or not, (reporters - do your job - we can hope?) however I read this thrown around out there in several places.
If so, Trump’s campaign needs to address it now, however, using details, not vague general statements.
NBC/WSJ poll sample shows 46% voted Obama in 2012 and only 34% voted Romney. 15% didn’t vote at all. So, corrected for likely voters, 54-38% bias to give her an 11 point lead. Am I wrong?
You’re not wrong in the sense these numbers are skewed and a disproportionate number voted for Obama.. but their internals show D+7 - D+9
Hm?....Don't I remember you as an “afterbither”?
This can only mean that the Independents in their sample disproportionately went for Obama in 2012, which in reality won’t happen in 2016. All polls I’ve seen show Trump ahead with Independents.
If you look at the internals, they don’t have a simple D/R/I split
They have it listed as something like Strong Dem, Mod Dem, Leaning Dem...
If you use the last category (which could technically by considerred Ind also), it’s D+7. If you don’t, it’s D+9
Very possible
NBC just reported this AM on TV that DJT is 11 points behind Hillary? Is that true?
Love Trump’s rallies but they pretty much preach to his choir.
He needs to shake things up asap somehow and change the dynamic of the race. Time is running out and he must find some way to recapture vital momentum.
BTW, wonder how his ground game is doing at this critical phase in Ohio (your state, I presume) after reports of Kasich and Borges pulling the rug out from underneath him???
That NBC poll oversampled dems by 18.9%
I would like to see a poll oversampling Republicans by 18.9%.
Trump would be winning Hawaii, Minnesota, California, Maryland, etc.
Yesterday on FR it was reported that NBC oversampled dems by 18.9%.
Ok... here’s the deal.. there were 18.9% more Dems than repubs.. but it was a D+7 poll.
Just like the 2012 election.. Dems were +6, which was also 19% more Dems than GOP
Need to be consistent. Playing with the numbers doesn’t help
Here’s an example
Dem 35%
Repubs 30%
Ind 30%
That’s D+5, right? It’s also 17% more Dems than Repubs
We have always gone by the D+x number. need to compare apples to applies
If you want to utilitize the % difference between 2012 and now and use %D vs %R, go ahead and use the 19%... but it was also 19% in 2012
If people want to use the % change now, and compare it to absolute (D+6) parlay election, and that makes people feel better, go right ahead.. it’s beyond misleading though
Hope that helps.. happy to elaborate further if anyone wants clarification
According to the NBC Poll, which was D+7, yes
According to Wash Post/ABC - which was D+2, Clinton is up only 2, well within the MOE
“Afterbirther”? Sorry no idea what you mean
Thanks for clearing that up.
I thought that was brazen, even for NBC.
If the dems were +6 in 2012, when they were all fired up for Obama, I wonder what their turnout will be for Hillary, a candidate who just doesn’t give them that tingle up their leg?
Seem like the motivation is on the GOP side this presidential election.
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