Yesterday on FR it was reported that NBC oversampled dems by 18.9%.
Ok... here’s the deal.. there were 18.9% more Dems than repubs.. but it was a D+7 poll.
Just like the 2012 election.. Dems were +6, which was also 19% more Dems than GOP
Need to be consistent. Playing with the numbers doesn’t help
Here’s an example
Dem 35%
Repubs 30%
Ind 30%
That’s D+5, right? It’s also 17% more Dems than Repubs
We have always gone by the D+x number. need to compare apples to applies
If you want to utilitize the % difference between 2012 and now and use %D vs %R, go ahead and use the 19%... but it was also 19% in 2012
If people want to use the % change now, and compare it to absolute (D+6) parlay election, and that makes people feel better, go right ahead.. it’s beyond misleading though
Hope that helps.. happy to elaborate further if anyone wants clarification