The Polls Are Always Right!
HISTORY
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</sarcasm> |
Posted on 10/16/2016 7:29:54 PM PDT by Helicondelta
If you recently glanced at the polls and the election markets, then you would be forgiven to believe that a landslide election is looming. It's likely not, and the spreads have the potential to revert in surprising ways between now and Election Day. The drumbeat of negative news against Donald Trump may not cause further damage. We've discussed numerously, starting on October 11 and 12, that Hillary Clinton's runaway spread would revert.
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In historical polling data people tend to make up their mind for candidates, and rarely does it lead to further subtractions from current polling levels. It is doubtful therefore that somehow any new negative information about Donald would compel someone, at long last in these final weeks, to ultimately switch allegiances. And while the theory of poll of polls works great to reduce the variance of errors, it does nothing to counter any systematic errors we may see hurtling through in the current election cycle. This is a significant lesson that remains lost among political hacks keen to simply analyze the data.
Another note is that you should be wary of taking too seriously the political advice of people who so recently badly errored in the Primary elections! This is not to cast a spotlight on any one individual, since the entire field of data journalism just saw a catastrophic result over the past year. But it's clear from the polling and the prediction betting market levels that the grave lessons from the past have not yet been learned. This summer's Brexit vote was just another example of election-eve overconfidence by pollsters and bookies. But stateside we do see the promotion of false confidence on preposterous polling statistics. The media ratings pursuit must inherent some blame, since news demands easily digestible insight that crookedly beguiles their patrons.
(Excerpt) Read more at zerohedge.com ...
It ain’t over ‘til it’s over.
Polls no longer assess opinion. They are used to drive opinion.
In my mind this will all hinge on just how FED UP the country is with the current leadership direction. If the country is unhappy and they see Hillary as a continuation of the same policies, Trump wins.
Polls are psy-ops. Why would anyone on FR trust anything from these sources - WSJ, NBC, ABC, CNN, WaPo, NYT, etc?
If they said it was raining outside I’d go out and check.
You forgot the Ailes-less Faux News.
My job is Big Data Architecture/Analytics. I am Post graduate in Statistics and Mathematics with Operation Research. Have half dozen patents in my field. I have experience in analysis of Primary election polling data
Its difficult to guess from these polls. Couple of information is missing.
e.g. How many refused to answer. % is needed What percentage responded ?
Sample gathering is more important than analysis. I can give multiple predictions for same set of data.
Currently, I can say, some set back in Trump momentum. Now his numbers are stable. 3 weeks are long time in politics.
The Polls Are Always Right!
HISTORY
|
</sarcasm> |
The two best polling agencies in the 2012 election both have trump and Hillary tied— Trump up slightly.. I have gotten into the prediction marking you get 5-1 odds right now..
even if he does not win.. those odds will shrink and you can sell anytime..
There’s a thread/graph up on The_Donald subreddit that illustrates how Hillary could only beat Sanders in states without a voting paper trail. Her rallies are tiny and uninspired. When her supporters tried to start a Twitter hashtag supportive of her—#hillarybecause—it blew up like vesuvius. (NeverHillarys took it over, and evicerated her.)
Short of massive voter fraud, Hillary will lose spectacularly.
these polls mean less than nothing. as has been said many times: “There are lies, damn lies, and statistics.” to which i would add, “then there are polls.”
the best thing anyone can do in this election, imho, is to pray that God lifts the righteous judgment He as placed on America, and then go out and exercise your God given consent of the governed.
You have an impressive background, and I respect your expertise. But there’s also the argument to be made that these polls are phony-facted from the get-go. I can’t prove it of course, but I do feel confident that with everything that is at stake in this election (read “trillions”), there are forces who will think nothing of fabricating some numbers in order to advance their agenda. I’m sure in your work there is an underlying assumption of professional ethics and little consideration of subterfuge and outright fraud.
I do not think that is the case when it comes to all of the polling, PR, and media outfits and those behind them.
Pinging myself. A MUST READ. But later.
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>> “Polls no longer assess opinion. They are used to drive opinion.” <<
This has been true longer than you have been alive.
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October/November
Reagan Carter Anderson
40% 44% 9%
39% 45% 9%
47% 44% 8%
Actual result
51% 41% 7%
Are there any who voted for Obama and will not vote for Hillary
Are there any who voted for Romney who aren’t going to vote for Trump
I doubt it
Depends on how many new voters Trump can get who didn’t vote in 2012
I’m thinking we need a Brexit Surprise.
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