Agree... It's helpful to keep this old book in mind when reading what someone has "proved" with a set of numbers.
My job is Big Data Architecture/Analytics. I am Post graduate in Statistics and Mathematics with Operation Research. Have half dozen patents in my field. I have experience in analysis of Primary election polling data
Its difficult to guess from these polls. Couple of information is missing.
e.g. How many refused to answer. % is needed What percentage responded ?
Sample gathering is more important than analysis. I can give multiple predictions for same set of data.
Currently, I can say, some set back in Trump momentum. Now his numbers are stable. 3 weeks are long time in politics.
You have an impressive background, and I respect your expertise. But there’s also the argument to be made that these polls are phony-facted from the get-go. I can’t prove it of course, but I do feel confident that with everything that is at stake in this election (read “trillions”), there are forces who will think nothing of fabricating some numbers in order to advance their agenda. I’m sure in your work there is an underlying assumption of professional ethics and little consideration of subterfuge and outright fraud.
I do not think that is the case when it comes to all of the polling, PR, and media outfits and those behind them.
“e.g. How many refused to answer. % is needed What percentage responded ?”
IMO Libs tend to be blabbermouths while conservatives are either too busy or privacy-minded to respond to strangers asking questions... I’m convinced there’s a HUGE silent majority out there!!!
Stay in touch jennychase. Keep posting.
We can use some expertise on our side..
Agree... It's helpful to keep this old book in mind when reading what someone has "proved" with a set of numbers.