Posted on 10/16/2016 10:09:12 AM PDT by GilGil
There are more Ds than Rs in the country, so they should not be even in polls.
I wish crooked Hillary was winning by 50 points in these polls. That will certainly depress her turnout by making the non-deplorable’s over-confident.
Strong + not strong Dem: 26% + 9% = 35%
Strong + not strong Rep: 19% + 7% = 26%
So a difference of +9% democrat.
But if we include independent/leaning to party than its +7 Dem:
Dem: 26% + 9% + 9% = 44%
Rep: 19% + 7% + 11% = 37%
I note that 44% is 18.9% more than 37%...but I would simply call this poll +9 Democrat.
I would call it a D+7 poll, leaners should fall into the respective D and R buckets
No.
33/25/33 D/R/I not “D+2”
I wish you were right. Click on the link.. do a drop down to filter Registered Voters... (they don’t show Likely Voters). You’ll see D+3. Likely voters is D+2
If they don’t show likely voters, that stat is worthless then - just as worthless as the “all adults” one.
No breakdown in likely voters - gee whiz golly, wonder why?
Click on Detailed view, where they show the party internals... it defaults to ALL ADULTS... click on REGISTERED VOTERS, you’ll see the D+3
The 4 point Hillary lead is reflective of the Likely Voter sample. They just don’t show the breakdown on this chart
Yeah, let me walk you through it:
This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone October 10-13, 2016, among a random national sample of 1,152 adults, including landline and cell phone respondents. Overall results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points; the error margin is 3.5 points among the sample of 920 registered voters and four points among the sample of 740 likely voters. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York.
blah blah blah - what is the breakdown among the 740 likely voters? How do you know they didn’t throw away a bunch of GOP registered voters to get that number? This is the Compost, after all and you can’t assume the “missing” 180 voters followed that breakdown just because the WaPo tells you so.
I don’t. I have no doubt all of these polls are juiced to some degree. I’m just speaking to the actual stats here
The "leaners" in most polls would be "leans Democrat" or "leans Republican". In this one they have that category roughly covered by "not-strong Democrat" and "not-strong Republican". The word "lean" was used in an even less party affiliated description of "Independent/Leans Democrat" or "Independent/Leans Republican". Considering these latter as Democrat and Republican would make the Independent sampling absurdly low. 13% if I recall correctly (the results are not handy atm).
there are no actual stats IF a poll of likely voters won’t show the party breakdown. You’ve been pimping this one poll all day:
Hate so say it, but the D+2 is probably right. Among all adults, it’s D+8. Among registered voters, it’s D+3. Likely could very well be D+2, and that’s what the results are based on- D+2
look at that leap of logic, lol. Hate to say it, really?
Regardless of which poll folks believe in.. if he’s not gonna bombard the airwaves with a massive ad campaign, like we’ve been hearing about for several weeks, he’s gonna have a hard time winning
His message is being muted.. I don’t want to hear him say, in a concession speech, that he gave his all.. not if he’s not spending massively
WHERE ARE THE ADS!!??? What is he waiting for?
Pimping?? Please, get over yourself. freeper LS was the first one to cite that based on some experts on Twitter
It’s not a huge leap of faith to see how a Registered Sample of D+3 would be likely of D+2. Likely (vs Registered) almost always favors GOP
Why were you “pimping” D+8?
You can call it D+5 but in terms of statistics it is almost meaningless.
Two polls: Set 1: D 45 and R 40, Set 2: D 35 R 30
Both samples are D +5, right?
But Set 1 contains 12.5% more Ds, while Set 2 contains 16.6% more.
The tricks of pollsters and statisticians are almost limitless when you start weighting and moving around demos (age, women, race, education).
There was an old saying back in the days where businesses were run through Excel and Lotus . He who owns the spreadsheet wins.
Same applies now.
You’re the one and the only one running around all concerned that HILLARY IS AHEAD EVEN WITH ONLY +2 D POLL!!! OMG, THIS IS NOT GOOD NEWS, FOLKS!!!
WaPo lies and they love to lie for Hillary. They OMIT that stat for “likely voters” and you should wonder why. They can cook a poll quite well.
You didn’t “correct” my “mistake” and YOU are the one that “lied” by saying that this was a +2 D poll with absolutely NO evidence that it was.
OOOOOOh, those nice boys at WaPo said it was +3 D for registered voters! That MUST be true, and since likely voters are more likely to be Republicans, the REAL number must be +2 D. That’s calling pulling a stat out of thin air.
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