Posted on 10/14/2016 5:41:07 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Here are the RETURNED Florida Absentee Ballot numbers for 2016 (REPs led in this category by 79,000 in 2012). Approximately 10.6% of Absentee Ballots have been returned at this point.
10/14/16: REPs - 130,758, DEMs - 124,773 lead of 5,985 for REPs, 42.0% to 40.1%
10/13/16: REPs - 83,646, DEMs - 77,817 lead of 5,829 for REPs, 42.4% to 39.5%
10/12/16: REPs - 43,358, DEMs - 40,049 lead of 3,303 for REPs, 42.6% to 39.4%
10/11/16: REPs - 21,016, DEMs - 18,419 lead of 2,597 for REPs, 43.4% to 38.1%
10/10/16: REPs - 14,058, DEMs - 11,054 lead of 3,004 for REPs, 45.4% to 35.7%
10/09/16: REPs - 13,338, DEMs - 9,659, lead of 3,679 for REPs, 46.9% to 33.9%
10/07/16: REPs - 5,085, DEMs - 3,490, lead of 1,595 for REPs
10/06/16: REPs - 4,163, DEMs - 2,738, lead of 1,425 for REPs
For Hillsborough [battleground/swing county] (DEMs had a lead of 20,000 in 2012 early voting - that's absentee ballots plus in-person early voting):
10/14/16: REPs - 12,937, DEMs - 15,764, lead of 2,827 for DEMs
10/13/16: REPs - 9,033, DEMs - 10,964, lead of 1,931 for DEMs
10/12/16: REPs - 3,778, DEMs - 4,403, lead of 625 for DEMs
10/11/16: REPs - 405, DEMs - 341, lead of 64 for REPs
Also, according to an article I read about OHIO: “By race, voter modeling by Catalist for the AP found the share of Ohio ballot requests by white voters was up, to 91 percent from 89 percent. The black share declined from 9 percent to 7 percent.”
In Florida African-Americans were 13% of the statewide vote in 2008 and 2012. In 2004, they were 11%. If the African-American vote total goes back to "historical norms" without Obama on the ballot, that would reduce Clinton's total in Florida by 160,000 votes. Obama won the state by 74,000 votes in 2012.
In the end; despite all the fireworks; it comes down to turnout.
Even if you’re not in love with Trump - I’m not - he is the one standing in the way of 4 to 8 years of Hillary Clinton.
That cannot happen.
Make sure you and all like-minded people you know show up and vote! Take a friend!
Apologies if you’ve answered this previously, but what do you base your prediction on? Is it the percentage of returned ballots in 2012.
Thank you.
Wow, these statistics are important.
Lies, collusion and corruption may be totally ignored and not win the day.
Ravi posted some data from 2012 on returned/unreturned ballots from 2012. I’m using that data. However, I haven’t been able to independently obtain percentages on 2012 data.
For now, using 78% return for REP and 70% for DEM.
They publish the results of absentee votes before election day? That’s odd.
Okay, thanks. I’ve kept a watch on LS’s posts. I’ll watch for yours and Ravi’s frome now on.
If 10% in and 5985 lead, then average points toward 59,850 final spread.lower than the 79,000.
Not results. Just whos voting, whether GOP or DEM or unaffiliated.
Absentees this year imo do not bear relation to 2012. Absentee law changed in FL in 2014 making it much easier to obtain a ballot. You should look it up. I think absentees this year may represent what the total electorate will look like. Just a hunch. We are at almost 3 million absentee requests in florida which will be about 33% of final turnout. That has never happened before. We are pulling early and election day voters into voting absentee is what I think.
What’s troubling is I saw a Republican Mayor of some Florida city + The Chamber of Course come out & support Hillary!!!! WTF!!!!????
“If 10% in and 5985 lead, then average points toward 59,850 final spread.lower than the 79,000.”
I don’t think the return rate is linear ... it kind of goes parabolic the closer you get to the deadline. That’s just human nature :-).
It’s kind of like a project with a deadline ... there is somewhat linear growth in the % accomplished direction ... as the deadline grows closer, more and more work is done as panic mode sets in :-).
Bottom line, I wouldn’t look at what to expect by the 10% returned so far.
What is the expected percentage of people who will vote early in Florida versus on election day? Are most people going to vote early?
Not how people voted. Only that people have requested and returned an absentee ballot.
What data is released varies by state.
We saw this with requests
The numbers you cite only apply if 100% of ballots are returned. Not all absentee ballots are returned. Many of the ballots were automatically sent - a new Florida procedure.
I’m estimating 78% of REP ballots are returned and 70% of DEM ballots are returned. Numbers subject to change as we see the return numbers.
I think you are definitely right on this point.
On the positive side, if REPs are ahead under this scenario, that bodes well for the final results.
Nice
We will know if my theory is correct in a few weeks. I wish someone was able to figure out the white and african american percentages like we have for Georgia, North Carolina and Ohio. That would be helpful.
Iffn’ you have a ping list, please put me on it!
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