If 10% in and 5985 lead, then average points toward 59,850 final spread.lower than the 79,000.
Absentees this year imo do not bear relation to 2012. Absentee law changed in FL in 2014 making it much easier to obtain a ballot. You should look it up. I think absentees this year may represent what the total electorate will look like. Just a hunch. We are at almost 3 million absentee requests in florida which will be about 33% of final turnout. That has never happened before. We are pulling early and election day voters into voting absentee is what I think.
“If 10% in and 5985 lead, then average points toward 59,850 final spread.lower than the 79,000.”
I don’t think the return rate is linear ... it kind of goes parabolic the closer you get to the deadline. That’s just human nature :-).
It’s kind of like a project with a deadline ... there is somewhat linear growth in the % accomplished direction ... as the deadline grows closer, more and more work is done as panic mode sets in :-).
Bottom line, I wouldn’t look at what to expect by the 10% returned so far.
The numbers you cite only apply if 100% of ballots are returned. Not all absentee ballots are returned. Many of the ballots were automatically sent - a new Florida procedure.
I’m estimating 78% of REP ballots are returned and 70% of DEM ballots are returned. Numbers subject to change as we see the return numbers.