Posted on 10/03/2016 12:03:45 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Right now the election is about Trump and not Hillary. If that stands, she wins by default. It needs to go back to being about her. Trump let the second half of that debate go sideways and defensive in nature. He needs to stay on offense. It’s what he does best.
catnipman, wow you are a friendly soul.
May I refer you to this post: http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3474072/posts where I say in my conclusion that it is going to be a “very tight race”.
Take care dude.
Polls are usually right. Think back to 2012. Not to the one or two you focused on. To the average of all of them.
Here’s what it looked like just before the election:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html
My recall is Dems turned out 6% more than GOP which was underestimated by pollsters.
It is unlikely that 6% will be matched without blacks being energized — but the woman vote pickup may offset some of that — though not all.
The stuff about lower GOP support for Trump than Dem support for Clinton is probably moderate GOP women voting gender rather than party.
The pollsters’ turnout model will lean on 2012 and that’s unlikely to prove accurate, so add 2% to Trump results. The new voter stuff . . . non degreed men . . . well, maybe.
But there is the old saying — you show me a candidate depending on new voters, and I’ll show you a loser.
Maurice Carroll, Director of Quinnipiac is a BIG time liberal Democrat.
You’re placing too much emphasis on the mechanics of the debate. This is a change election and everyone knows Hillary represents the same old Obama politics.
Trump represents stopping illegal immigration, promoting fair trade, keeping jobs in America, strong defense, law and order, etc.
This is the year of the outsider who will destroy the MSM narrative.
I hope some coaching from Brexit leader Nigel Farage will focus Trump on what he needs to do Sunday night!!!
Sad but true!!!
Praying for a miracle, Trump’s election victory on November 8!!!
Same!
“Before debates I predicted the pollsters would go to huge Dem oversamples after to give Hillary a win and that is EXACTLY what happened.”
“ALL of the movement you are seeing to Clinton post-debate in polls can be attributed to enlarging the Democrat sample. Every damned bit.’
https://twitter.com/mitchellvii?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
“This week in 2012, Obama was up 3.6 in RAND Poll. This same week in the same poll Trump is up by 4.5”
https://twitter.com/RichBarnett/status/783006423122907136
Your own post:
UPI/CVoter poll: Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 2.5 points
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3476214/posts
I’ve seen more real estate for sale signs than H! signs ............
There seems to be something wrong with their math.
Do the Crosttabs and Demos.
48% Men
52% Women
Split
49/33 Men
38/53 Women
Trump = 48 * .49 + 52 * .38 = 23 + 20 = 43
‘illary = 48 * .33 + 52 * .53 = 16 + 28 = 44
Don’t see it unless I am making a stupid math error.
6% sounds about right for a fraud margin. I am thinking at lease 5% fraud.
Its incomprehensible to you because you believe in laws, morality, and principles. Unfortunately, your values are not universally shared in this country.
Or no, your brain did the exact same thing mine did originally. You swapped 33 and 38. Trump got 33 women, hillary got 38 men.
Internals. OH D+2, FL D+3, NC D+5, PA D+7
She is losing all of those States.
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