[Owen]

Polls are usually right. Think back to 2012. Not to the one or two you focused on. To the average of all of them.

Here’s what it looked like just before the election:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

My recall is Dems turned out 6% more than GOP which was underestimated by pollsters.

It is unlikely that 6% will be matched without blacks being energized — but the woman vote pickup may offset some of that — though not all.

The stuff about lower GOP support for Trump than Dem support for Clinton is probably moderate GOP women voting gender rather than party.

The pollsters’ turnout model will lean on 2012 and that’s unlikely to prove accurate, so add 2% to Trump results. The new voter stuff . . . non degreed men . . . well, maybe.

But there is the old saying — you show me a candidate depending on new voters, and I’ll show you a loser.

[longtermmemmory]

6% sounds about right for a fraud margin. I am thinking at lease 5% fraud.