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Posted on 10/01/2016 7:00:34 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Matthew is big, bad and just downright scary, and we await the long anticipated sharp turn northward. Jamaica is completing final storm preparations. All interests in the Eastern U.S. and Bahamas should be carefully watching the track of Mighty Matthew.
Ripped straight from the NHC Discussion page:
Matthew remains south of a low-to mid-level ridge over
the western Atlantic. The dynamical models forecast this ridge to
weaken over the next 72 hours as a mid- to upper-level trough develops
over the Gulf of Mexico. This evolution should cause Matthew to turn
northwestward after 24 hours and northward by 48-72 hours. The guidance
generally agrees with this scenario. However, there is a spread between
the GFS forecast of landfall in Jamaica and eastern Cuba and the ECMWF
forecast landfall in southwestern Haiti. The guidance becomes more
divergent after 72 hours.
Cone of Death Historic Archive Loop
Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links
Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
Buoy 42058 Central Caribbean (in storm path)
Florida & Eastern Gulf Buoy Locations
SE Atlantic Coast Buoy Locations
SE U.S. Radar Sector
Gitmo Radar (primitive)
Jamaica Radar Loop (primitive)
If the info above doesn't satisfy your need for speed and graphics, strap yourself in for a ride to Mike's Weather Page
I am in the Raleigh, NC area. Hope you won’ have to leave the coast but if so, come on up here and be safe. However, Hurricane Fran made a direct hit on the Raleigh area so you are not totally safe up here. The local news is saying it should just be some wind and rain here - no major damage as we had in Fran - but that depends totally on how this thing tracks.
I had a beach trip planned for Wrightsville Beach schedule to start Sunday. I guess that will be postponed. HOpe Matthew doesn’t hurt Wrightsville or Atlantic Beach too badly. Same for down East inland where we have had major flooding recently from heavy rains.
The catastrophe started at Bois Caiman in 1791, and it hasn't let up since.
The final murder of the whites in 1805 created a polity born in slaughter and appeals to heathen gods, and the fundamentals have never changed.
"Voodoo prevailed despite the whites’ efforts, nurtured in secret by the colony’s first slaves. During European colonialism and the Haitian revolution Voodoo played a singular role for slaves...Voodoo today is still a significant part of most Haitians’ daily lives. A Haitian woman in the 20th century said that “The loa love us, protect us and watch over us. They show us what is happening to our relatives living far away, and they tell us what medicines will do us good when we are sick.” (Brown University)
Hmmmm...looks like we could get some nasty weather here
Very relieved to know you have a plan, and it sounds like a good plan. Totally understand your frustration with insurance. Had to bind hazard insurance a week before closing on my house years ago because a storm was almost forming in the Atlantic.
The price for living in paradise can be troublesome during the silly season. Hang in there! You are not alone.
Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches are likely for portions of
the Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys later this morning.
Location about 10 mi E of Tiburon Haiti
125 miS of the eastern tip of Cuba
Max sustained winds...145 mph...
Moving...N or 5 degrees at 9 mph
934 mb
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here--> 
Prayers for the people of Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and all the surrounding region.
I’m on the East Central Florida coast and reading this thing might hit us Thursday evening
I have family in Orlando who are expecting me, but the last hurricane that worked its way up the Florida corridor 12 years ago gave Orlando a pretty hard pounding......I was there.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles.
Amen.
If Matthew makes landfall or gets very close the to the NC coast, it will likely be as a weak Cat 3 or a strong Cat 2; although all that is subject to change either up or down, and down is the more likely scenario.
But I wouldn’t necessarily dismiss a Cat 3 or Cat 2 or even a strong Cat 1 or a strong TS storm. Depending on what you mean by “coast”, i.e. how close you are to the beachfront, winds may not be your biggest risk but rather the storm surge. Even further inland torrential rains and storm surges coming up rivers “could” cause major flooding.
I would check, perhaps talk to your neighbors who have lived there a long time and ask them about the flooding history in your area.
But you can’t completely dismiss the wind shield either. Even TS force winds can do a lot of damage and you could be without power for some days. Being from NY, think about the last really bad thunder storm you’ve experienced, one with very gusty winds (40-50 mph or more) and torrential rains. Now think about that potentially lasting for several hours instead of for what is typical in a thunder storm - 15-20 minutes.
Don’t be scared and don’t panic, but you can do some things now to prepare.
When or if the storm gets closer, secure your property and depending on the forecasted winds in your location, bring in any objects like lawn furniture, trash cans, etc. You may not need to cover windows in plywood but taping them may not be a bad idea if you are going to get hurricane force winds. Again check with your neighbors, especially the ones who have lived in your neighborhood for a long time to see how they are preparing and keep abreast of the forecast and any advisories in your locale.
I would suggest going out today and stocking in some provisions - enough for a week - bottled water and foods that don’t need refrigeration or cooking especially if your only source of cooking is electric (heck, canned soup or chili, etc. may not be great cold, but they are edible – and foods like crackers and peanut butter…) and batteries and flashlights or extra flashlights if you don’t have them. Also make sure you have a battery operated radio. Even if the storm fizzles out or makes an eastward turn, a lot of those provisions will last a long time and come in handy for the “next storm”.
Also fill up your car with gas today just in case you need or feel you need to evacuate and keep it topped off. And if you are in an area where evacuations are ordered, don’t wait until the last minute. Even with a strong TS, roads can flood, some bridges may close, trees can come down and traffic lights go out, making an escape route challenging.
The last TS to hit where I live in Central PA, and far from the coast BTW, TS Lee, there wasn’t any significant winds here but a lot of rain and a lot of flooding. My normal 45-minute commute home turned into over 3 hours due to road closures because of flooding and my work place in Lancaster Co. was closed for two days because of the flooding.
Depending on the strength and path of the storm and your vulnerability to flooding, think about what you need in your “go-bag” should you need to evacuate. Not just enough clothes and toiletries for a few days but what sort of important documents you would need to take with you in a very worst case scenario. You don’t have to pack now, but just give it some thought.
But again, don’t be afraid and don’t panic. The storm is many days out from any US coastal impact and a lot could change between now and then and you’ve got plenty of time to prepare.
Unless you are right on the beach front or along a river, you will likely get a blustery blow and some heavy rain squalls/bands and perhaps lose power for a time. You will be fine if you prepare and use some common sense and just keep aware of the forecast.
In 1804, the Haitians massacred their entire white population: men, women, and children.
Then they killed or drove off their lighter-skinned middle class. Envy is a mental illness which will keep Haiti poor.
On the lighter brighter side we can see how well Haitians used the wealth stolen from ‘white people’ to establish a first rate country. /s
“Squads of soldiers moved from house to house, torturing and killing entire families.[5] Even whites who had been friendly and sympathetic to the black population were imprisoned and later killed.[6] A second wave of massacres targeted white women and children.[6]”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1804_Haiti_massacre
That Massacre of 1805 link deserves its own thread. Please post one as I believe it will receive a lot of discussion there and not politicize the Hurricane thread here.
(Really, it’s a good topic)
A tropical storm watch is in effect from the Seven Mile Bridge in
the Florida Keys northward to south of Deerfield Beach, including
Lake Okeechobee
Max sustained winds...145 mph
Moving...N or 360 degrees at 10 mph...17 km/h
950 mb
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->
Thanks—that link is up in the main body of this thread. It is a busy one!
...and the barrier islands - virtually every one of them from Miami to Hatteras Island - are going to see an enormous amount of storm surge, wave action, flooding, and erosion.
Outside of a direct hit by a 3 or above, flooding is going to be the major concern as far as damage. How close to the beachfront are you? Or, the ICW, sound or a river? Is your home elevated on pilings? When you bought, they would have had to disclose if the property was in a flood zone, and insurance would be required.
Put away or secure things that could be blown around and become projectiles. Patio furniture, anything the wind could move. It’s a little early yet to start taping windows or boarding them up.
That area has survived plenty of hurricanes before, don’t let panic get the best of you. Find out about prior storms where you are, ask people who have lived nearby for years what to expect, and plan accordingly.
You’ll be OK.
I speak from current experience that there are stubborn elderly people who do not wish to relocate from their coastal homes for the storm. Eeeesh.
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