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I wonder what caused such a fast drop for Trump in the first place. Roughly tied on 9/11, Trump jumped to a 6.7% lead a week later. Many believe this was the impact of Hillary's health issues and subsequently being tossed into a van like a side of beef.

Four days later, Trump's lead is down to 1.4%. I cannot figure out how Hillary was able to gain that much in this poll over that short span. Now, two days after that drop, the lead is back to 4.1% for Trump. Wanting so much to believe this is where the race is, it's hard to latch onto this poll with such a wide variation over a short period of time. Especially for Hillary, who seemingly has done little campaigning in the past month.

NY!!!

TRUMP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

PENCE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

RUDY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

NEWT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sessions!!!!

The men that will put our country back together again!!! :) :) :)

I believe this group uses a rolling average. They have 3000 people in the poll but only poll about 200 of them each day. So it takes roughly 2 weeks before they go back and poll the same people again. Because each day is only a small sample size, it may be susceptible to larger daily swings (esp if they weigh the more recent responses more heavily, or, if there is something in the news that would push people to one or the other candidate). I suspect it should be slower to move based on news events because it would take several days of 200 responses before a large shift in preference could influence the numbers shown in the entire group of 3000. Overall it should be great for spotting trends. I am unsure how well it will do in predicting outcomes but it sure is an interesting, new way to poll.

For those watching this poll, it has always had a delayed reaction to events by about a week, so nothing that happened yesterday or the day before is effecting this poll to a great degree.

The poll had Trump up by a large amount at the end of the DEMOCRAT convention because it took a week for the GOP convention to be baked into the cake.

So the following explains the polls recent movements. First, it took about a week for Shillary's 9/11 medical episode to be baked in, which then showed Trump opening up a nice lead.

Hillary took some time off and people didn't see her for a few days (which Dick Morris says the less people see of her the more they like her. Once she re-appears, people are reminded why they can't stand her). There are all kinds of rumors and guesses about Hillary's health, but she re-appears and people see that she can stand up, so her numbers stabilize.

Now, Trump has gained good ground the last 2 days. Why? Again, poll movement is reflected by about a week. What was happening last weekend? The Muslim attacks in Minnesota and New York. Every time Muslims strike, it proves Donald's points about Islamic extremists and immigration of those from Muslim countries.

The media effectively spun the press conference where trump said the hillary started it. We thought it was brilliant but the media spun it. Trump could have gone down more though had he played the presser the way the.media wanted them to.

So does this poll work as a moving average, based on 400 polled every day?

If so then the Cruz endorsement would take 7 days to reach maximum impact, agreed?

I think they Cruz element, could contribute 3-5 points when fully measured. Hope that is correct.

Democrats/Hillary side must be very worried now, probably calling Bill Weld (maybe even Reefer-dude Johnson), etc.

So does this poll work as a moving average, based on 400 polled every day?

If so then the Cruz endorsement would take 7 days to reach maximum impact, agreed?

I think they Cruz element, could contribute 3-5 points when fully measured. Hope that is correct.

Democrats/Hillary side must be very worried now, probably calling Bill Weld (maybe even Reefer-dude Johnson), etc.