Four days later, Trump's lead is down to 1.4%. I cannot figure out how Hillary was able to gain that much in this poll over that short span. Now, two days after that drop, the lead is back to 4.1% for Trump. Wanting so much to believe this is where the race is, it's hard to latch onto this poll with such a wide variation over a short period of time. Especially for Hillary, who seemingly has done little campaigning in the past month.
The way this poll works is that it’s based on intensity. Perhaps the Gennifer Flowers tweet energized the Donald’s supporters today and accounted for the shift.
she looks 600 years old and that on the good side.
The methodology guarantees wide swings. While they use a large pool to draw from on any given day the only ask 400 people
It is possible they weigh the more recent responses more heavily than the older responses. This outfit polls the same 3000 people, 200 each day. If they weigh recent responses more heavily then it is possible to see bigger swings day to day. Otherwise the only explanation I can think of is that once in a while they will get an “outlier” group of 200 who are very heavily in favor of one or the other so great that it pushes the average. If they expect that of 200 people it should break roughly 100 to 100, but instead that small sample came out 150 to 50 for Hillary, this extra 50 people would represent a 1.6% swing overall. But, that would not be representative, it is too small a sample size and it is way outside all the other samples. So the tracking number could move in the short term from something like this, but if it is an outlier it will soon show a reversion to the mean - which is what it appears to have done. The mean shows an advantage to Trump among the entire group and that advantage has held for over 2 weeks, long enough that they have basically polled everyone in the group at least once. This increases confidence in the results, as well as the trend.
“Many believe this was the impact of Hillary’s health issues and subsequently being tossed into a van like a side of beef”
I tend to think of it more like a mangled chunk of roadkill being tossed into a dump truck.
The Donald is on the way back up because of the recent terrorist attacks, the riots and the un-American anti-pledgers. People see the way the country is heading and it isn’t pretty. Of course, why any American would vote for Clinton makes one just shake their head.
It’s a rolling poll. Trump had a couple of huge days of black vote that tilted everything. When those rolled off the average fell fast. More like Trump returned to a normal rather than “something happened”.
It’s the LA Slimes, a wannabe leftist cousin of their brethren in New York. While they post that poll this hit piece story was on their front page this morning. Make of it what you will, but it’s not a coincidence they post this the day before the debate.
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-trump-false-statements-20160925-snap-story.html