Posted on 09/22/2016 3:38:26 AM PDT by expat_panama
Guess what? A President Trump could adopt his new trade agenda without any authorization from Congress -- and this could trigger a global trade war and a deep U.S. recession. Policies that promise to make us stronger economically could do the opposite.
That's the main take-away of a study...
...Trump could implement most of his proposals, which repudiate decades of pro-trade policies, by executive order. So contends Peterson's Gary Hufbauer after a review of trade laws. Over the past century, Hufbauer says, Congress has passed many laws that "authorize the president to impose tariffs......
...Trump's bluster may simply be a ploy... ...exporters -- would rush to court...
...Hufbauer doubts the courts will persuaded. He thinks they would move against the president only if the White House lost a trial. A trial could take a year or two, giving Trump a long period of freedom to pursue his policies.
If Trump raises tariffs on Mexico and China, they will retaliate...
...it almost certainly would be unfavorable...
...trade has been an engine of growth for the world economy. Trump seems to assume that if he can cut the trade deficit, he would be defending U.S. jobs and stimulating U.S. economic growth. With a $500 billion U.S. trade deficit in 2015, there seems to be ample room for improvement.
Although this appears logical, it's actually backward. When the U.S. economy grows rapidly, the trade deficit rises (because imports surge) and the unemployment rate falls (because shoppers also buy domestic goods and services).
By contrast, when the economy falls into recession, the trade deficit declines (because Americans buy fewer imports)... ...the Great Recession caused a huge drop in the trade deficit. In 2009, it was $384 billion, down from $762 billion in 2006...
...Are these the last days of open trade? They could be.
(Excerpt) Read more at investors.com ...
doom and gloom ....
bringing jobs and businesses back to America by imposing tariffs to offset the unfair advantage china, mexico and others enjoy due to very low wages and next to no environmental protections simply evens the playing field.
Trade is already down substantially even in our current "free trade" environment. We're seeing the ongoing saga of Hanjin Shipping as it plunges into insolvency, with ships floating out in the ocean because no port wants to take them (the ports are afraid they won't get paid for unloading the cargo).
The bigger issue we have to deal with is a U.S. consumer who has completely run out of gas and doesn't have the same disposable income he had five or ten years ago.
There is no such thing as ‘free trade’. It’s all a pipe dream. If you need a phonebook of regulations protecting your coveted agreements, it ain’t free by a longshot. Samualson, you’re an idiot. IBD is losing money keeping you on the payroll.
BS
The non-elites have been in a recession for the last 10 years, in decline for the 30 years and the unfair, free trade deals have only benefitted the 1%, corporations and bought and paid for politicians.
Free trade is great, to a point. But you can’t base a national economy on cheap imports paid for by increasing debt, a super-wealthy elite, and welfare for the masses.
Have they considered that Trump might not “end” foreign trade? He might just adjust it.
If anyone thinks that a non-working welfare class in the USA is healthy, look at Charlotte last night. People with good, meaningful jobs don’t spend their evening rioting and burning.
So, a tax on goods made outside of the US can make the world fall apart?
Imagine, then, what that tax, moved to income, does. Can we say all government welfare is that cataclysmic result?
We’ve heard Samuelson’s argument, and that of every other “free trader”, such as Sowell, unceasingly ever since the end of World War II. The corporatists and globalists were allowed to advance every sort of “free trade” initiative and program their minds could conceive, including the use of
American servicemen’s lives and the American people’s treasure in their attempts to “make the world safe for democracy”. We now live with the worldwide chaos they’ve created and the collapse of the American Republic they’ve enabled. It’s way, way past time to return to the era of America First, which held sway in this country during our phenomenal growth years, when tariffs and trade reciprocity were required to ensure that we remained truly free as a people, not beholden to ridiculous notions of the pre-eminence of League of Nation and UN internationalism and tyrannical Marxist-driven globalism.
Hey, now. I’m a manufacturing worker just outside of Detroit, and my paycheck (in large part) is derived from NAFTA (God Bless Ronald Reagan!). Perhaps OWS is more in line with what you are thinking?
My money goes on whoever has the BIGGEST economy and the MOST technology.
Btw, your argument is from the pages of Marx. He thought "free trade" would leas to social unrest.
Awake enough this AM to notice your tag line :-) Allman Bros. Now crave to Eat a Peach for breakfast; good song, that!
Excise taxes are what this country largely existed on until the early 1900s.
Our country declined during those years, didn’t it?
Good point about Charlotte, but let’s be realistic. Most of the jobs those people are capable of doing are being automated out of existence, and it has nothing to do with trade policy.
LOLOL—take a gander at Bryan’s homepage.
All of our so-called partners cheat on the deals and we look the other way because the crony capitalists sell Americans down the river w/o blinking an eye.
“Trade is already down substantially even in our current “free trade” environment. We’re seeing the ongoing saga of Hanjin Shipping as it plunges into insolvency, with ships floating out in the ocean because no port wants to take them (the ports are afraid they won’t get paid for unloading the cargo).
The bigger issue we have to deal with is a U.S. consumer who has completely run out of gas and doesn’t have the same disposable income he had five or ten years ago. “
Excellent larger picture analysis.
A few random thoughts. Countries try to develop car exports because those have historically been a big winner in trade. But US car sales have declined steadily because, as one of my car magazines reported, there are four point something registered cars per registered driver. The market is saturated. The newer cars are too small for the American market, hence the increased sales of trucks and SUV’s.
The same may be true for toasters, TV’s, cell phones and other gadgets. I no longer know anyone with the latest cell phone or computer. The only place you see the latest technology is with students and once they have their iPhone and the next one is thirty percent more with no real change in capability, they too may sit pat.
The US economy would be much better off with less trade and more exploitation of our own resources. We have a huge percentage of the world’s oil. We could drop grain prices if we stopped adding alcohol to gas. We need much less regulation and much less government. Just do those things and the US economy will again become the dynamo it once was.
If we can replicate that situation now, yep, I agree we can run the government on tariffs.
But I think what we'll have are some big tariffs protecting those businesses who kick in the most bribes to D.C., and income taxes on top of that.
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