Posted on 09/20/2016 4:05:28 AM PDT by expat_panama
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) Ill start with the bad news: The fourth year of the presidential election-year cycle is about to end, and year No. 1 of a new cycle is about to begin.
And you can only guess what that means.
But there also is some good news: What you know about the first year of the cycle is most likely wrong: First years do not automatically spell doom.....
...two features of that record that suggest we shouldnt write off the stock markets near-term prospects. First, as you can see in the chart at the top of this column, there is considerable quarter-to-quarter variation...
...second relevant feature of the historical record that is particularly relevant to this coming election: The first-year tendencies of the stock market depend crucially on whether the incumbent political party...
Quarter of presidential cycle year #1 Average Dow gain when incumbent party wins Average Dow gain when incumbent party loses
1 +7.3% -1.0%
2 +1.4% -2.3%
3 +2.8% +6.6%
4 +1.6% +0.4%
As you can see, the Dow does much better in quarters one and two of the first year of the presidential term when the incumbent party wins. But, then, this pattern at least partially reverses itself...
....the stock market is likely for a few months at least to do better if Democrat Hillary Clinton wins. If Republican Donald Trump wins, in contrast, it would likely take the market longer to find its bearings but would eventually figure out how to survive and even prosper under his administration.
(Excerpt) Read more at marketwatch.com ...
Good morning! The pundits are saying everyone's worried about the Fed, but stock price trends look like traders are fast asleep. The S&P moved zero% yesterday and today futures see maybe +0.2%. Those same futures traders see metals +1.07% although gold & silver prices haven't budged since yesterday ($1,315.70 and $19.26).
Our bean counters got a slow day today too w/ just Housing Starts and Building Permits before the bell and they go home.
Pundits are busy tho:
Will Rotten Politicians Kill Bull Market? - Anthony Mirhaydari, Fiscal Times
Why Brexit Could Be a Warning for American Voters - Holly Ellyatt, CNBC
'Deplorables' and the Myth of the Single-Issue Voter - Megan McArdle, BV
Why Executives Tiptoe Around Donald Trump - Andrew Ross Sorkin, NYT
Fed Poised to Cut Interest Rate Forecast Again - Spicer & Saphir, Reuters
How Low Interest Rates Became the New Normal - Clive Crook, Bloomberg
Here's One Big Reason Fed Can Wait to Raise Rates - William Watts, MW
Historical Elegance of the Fed and Jackson Hole - Peter Conti-Brown, L&L
Black & White Wage Gap Worst in Nearly 40 Years - Tanzina Vega, CNN
'America's Raise' Ignores Real Story of U.S. Income - John Tamny, RCM
The big boys who all have connections and schemes in place ARE about to get upset. NEW connections have to be made to rip everyone off and that takes a lot of money and time.
I guess that’s good, but if the stock market is just pumped up fluff that doesn’t reflect the health of the real economy (as it is now), then it’s just a longer fuse on the inevitable crash.
Unless illary wins, in which case I plan on a long hybernation and a massive amount of "non-participation" in the misery to follow.
I can't consider a market propelled almost entirely by the nearly decade-long FED tampering via QE#, ZIRP, NIRP & rollovers as a BULL market.
Past market cycles were largely the reflection of the health of US & world business environment.
Past markers don't apply in the current era.
They slap an important sounding term on it like "negative interest rates" and then help themselves to what they need. This year's NIRP might be 1%. If conditions continue to worsen, next years NIRP might be 3%.
If The Donald knows anything, he knows business; the government needs to get its all-destroying tentacles out of commerce or we’ll end up as a larger version of Venezuela.
That’s what obama wants, and it’s that toward which he’s been working these seven years.
A hillary administration will only complete the destruction obama began.
I expect Trump will win so that means the next couple months will be negative for the stock market.
That’s in line with most of the prognosticators I listen to.
People have hoarded what they have needed for hundreds of thousands of years and no gov't policy can change that. The gov't can stop printing money and folks will immediately stash what they got and any new earnings will get spent on the next cash equivalent hoard. Hoarding's been happening more than normal these past few years and it's the reason inflation's been low, and this won't change until people decide that sending's become worthwhile again
...the next cash equivalent hoard.
Hmmm...whatever it is, I’m sure I won’t have any of it.
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