Electoral Votes Continue to Trend toward Trump - Weekly Update (Vanity)

Self | 9/15/16 | Scouter

[scouter]

For the last week or so I've been comparing the current data with the data from August 25. There are some interesting findings. Here are the weekly totals for the last 3 weeks:

Date	Trump	Clinton	Tied
8/25	191	332	15
9/1	191	303	44
9/8	226	294	18
9/15	258	274	6

So three weeks ago, Trump needed to gain 79 electoral votes, and Clinton could afford to lose 62. By last week, Trump had already gained 53 electoral votes (67% of those he needs), and Clinton had lost 38 (62% of those she can afford to lose). It's even better now. As of this morning, Trump has gained 67 electoral votes (85% of those he needs), and Clinton has lost 58 (94% of those she can afford to lose).

There is a definite shift toward Trump in electoral votes, both in terms of actualized EVs (if you can call today's status "actualized," which you can't, since they won't truly be "actualized" until November 8--but I can't find a better word), and potential EVs. In the last three weeks, 28 states, representing 302 electoral votes, have shifted in one direction or the other, the vast majority in Trump's favor.

In Trump's direction:

Changed Hands from Clinton to Trump: 62
Changed Hands from Tied to Trump: 0
Stayed Trump's, but more strongly so: 85
Stayed Clinton's, but more weakly so: 87
Total: 234

In Clinton's direction:

Changed Hands from Trump to Clinton: 0
Changed Hands from Tied to Clinton: 15
Stayed Trump's, but more weakly so: 40
Stayed Clinton's, but more strongly so: 7
Total: 62

Put simply, a net 172 electoral votes moved in Trump's direction, as compared to three weeks ago.

Note also, the following:

1. No votes went from Trump to Clinton, while 62 votes went from Clinton to Trump.
2. Among EVs that did NOT change hands, Trump's votes are more strongly his, and Clinton's EVs are more weakly hers.
3. Out of all 50 states, three weeks ago 41 EVs were barely Trump's, 12 were barely Clinton's, and 15 were tied. Today those numbers are 73, 49, and 6, respectively. This means that as of today, 128 EVs are clearly within grasp of the other candidate, but three weeks ago only 68 EVs were that uncertain. This means that the election is wide open, and momentum is in Trump's direction.
4. Out of all the states that shifted in their support for their candidates, Trump has 73 EVs that are barely his, while Clinton has 59 EVs that are barely hers. These numbers have both increased in the last 7 days, due to the overall shift of EVs toward Trump.

Summary Data for all 50 States and the District of Columbia

	25-Aug	15-Sep	Net Loss/Gain
Strongly Dem	231	162	-69
Likely Dem	89	63	-26
Barely Dem	12	49	37
Exactly Tied	15	6	6
Barely GOP	41	73	32
Likely GOP	55	34	-21
Strongly GOP	95	151	56

Clinton lost big in both the "strong" and "likely" categories, and gained huge in the "barely" category. Taken together and with the fact that she lost 58 EVs, this represents a major weakening of her base support.

On the other hand, Trump gained 67 EVs and gained in the "barely" and "strong" categories, and lost EVs in the "likely" category. This is because some of Clinton's support became his, and a significant amount of the support he already had became stronger.

Tipping Point

Nevada (6 EVs) is now tied. North Carolina (15 EVs) is within 2%. If Trump can turn these two states and keep the ones he already has, then he will win the election. Michigan (16 Evs) and Rhode Island (4 EVs) are both barely Democrat, with Trump being within 3% of Clinton.

Rhode Island (4 EVs), New Hampshire (4 EVs), and Wisconsin (10 EVs) are all barely Democrat, within 4%. So there are 18 additional EVs within reasonable striking distance for Trump, down from 74 last week. This is because Trump has already gotten most of the ones that were within striking distance last week.

That being said, there are 79 additional EVs within reasonable striking distance of Clinton (10 less than last week), but the momentum is clearly in Trump's direction. He has solidified his base. When an EV switches from one candidate to the other, typically they spend at least a little while in the "barely" category. However, in the last week, and even though many Trump gained 32 EVs in the last week, there are fewer EVs within striking distance of Clinton.

Detailed Data

Here's the detailed data on each state that shifted support in one direction or the other over the last two weeks. Positive number reflect movement toward Trump, and negative numbers represent movement toward Clinton.

State	25-Aug	15-Sep	Electoral Votes	Moving towards Trump (All)	Moving towards Trump (Currently Rep)	Moving towards Trump (Currently Dem)	Moving towards Trump (Currently Tied)
Texas	Likely Republican	Strongly Republican	38	38	38
Kansas	Likely Republican	Strongly Republican	6	6	6
Mississippi	Barely Republican	Strongly Republican	6	6	6
South Carolina	Barely Republican	Strongly Republican	9	9	9
Alabama	Strongly Republican	Likely Republican	9	-9	-9
Alaska	Strongly Republican	Likely Republican	3	-3	-3
Arkansas	Strongly Republican	Likely Republican	6	-6	-6
Utah	Strongly Republican	Likely Republican	6	-6	-6
Nebraska	Strongly Republican	Likely Republican	5	-5	-5
Missouri	Barely Republican	Strongly Republican	10	10	10
Georgia	Barely Republican	Likely Republican	16	16	16
Arizona	Likely Republican	Barely Republican	11	-11	-11
Florida	Likely Democrat	Barely Republican	29	29	29
Ohio	Likely Democrat	Barely Republican	18	18	18
Iowa	Barely Democrat	Barely Republican	6	6	6
Colorado	Strongly Democrat	Barely Republican	9	9	9
Nevada	Barely Democrat	Tied	6	6			6
North Carolina	Tied	Barely Democrat	15	-15		-15
Wisconsin	Likely Democrat	Barely Democrat	10	10		10
New Jersey	Strongly Democrat	Barely Democrat	14	14		14
Rhode Island	Strongly Democrat	Barely Democrat	4	4		4
Michigan	Strongly Democrat	Barely Democrat	16	16		4
Minnesota	Strongly Democrat	Likely Democrat	10	10		10
Washington	Strongly Democrat	Likely Democrat	12	12		12
Virginia	Strongly Democrat	Likely Democrat	13	13		13
Maine	Strongly Democrat	Likely Democrat	4	4		4
New Hampshire	Strongly Democrat	Likely Democrat	4	4		4
Connecticut	Likely Democrat	Strongly Democrat	7	-7		-7
Totals			302	178	107	53	6

[demkicker]

Trump can SOOOO win this election if he plays it smart during the debates. I pray he will not hand Hitlery the election by hitting back ‘too hard’ because she will no doubt try her best to get under his skin (which many claim to be thin). And I don’t want him to give the MSM any ammunition.

[mainerforglobalwarming]

Maine at least 1 ev.

[freedom1st]

Thanks for your analysis. I like your objective analytical review instead of a subjective review.

[Awgie]

The “debates” have never been so important, critical and pivotal. It will be Trump against Hillary, the moderator and the hand picked audience.

[Disestablishmentarian]

This is great stuff. Thank you.

Personally, I put NC, NV , WI and MI in Trump’s column, while still calling CO a tossup. But, admittedly, I allow myself a subjective component (because I can!)

[mrsmith]

Historically, never minding the effect of actual events upon the polls, it’s reasonable to assume a 3 or 4% change towards Trump- which looks mighty good.

Here’s electoral weirdness: The ‘expert’ prognosis of a Trump win currently runs through Wisconcin!
http://www.270towin.com/maps/princeton-election-consortium
IE: that’s the smallest change in their (adjustable) map that gives him a victory.

And thanks for your informative and useful post!

[scouter]

Just for everyone's information, I got the data for this from a web site I follow called Electoral-Vote.com. They have been pretty accurate, historically, even if their commentary is left-leaning. The URL is: http://www.electoral-vote.com

[LS]

NC is safe. No way Trump will lose a state Minion won, esp. after massive GOP registration changes and when, in neighboring SC, Trump is drawing 25% black vote in the latest poll.

NV is pretty much safe. Ditto on registration changes, esp. in Washoe Co.

I agree CO is a tossup, but latest polls-—whether they have Trump winning or not-—ALL have him moving up. And ME congressional district is +1. So, with all due respect, you need to move 19 EVs to Trump.

[scouter]

I hear you, but I'm just reporting and analyzing the data as reported on electoral-vote.com. I'm leaving further analysis and opinion to others like you, who are more in tune with some of the details, like Maine's congressional district, individual counties, voter registration efforts, and the relative safety of individual states.

[LS]

I know. But it’s black-and-white kinds of electoral vote analysis that completely missed Reagan’s & Bush’s massive comebacks in 80 and 88. In fact, I don’t know if you saw this, but in June 1964, Goldwater was behind by almost 60 points. He lost by 23.

Now, that’s a helluva error, even though LBJ still won. As a pollster, I don’t think I’d be proud of that, and it suggests if race kept going, it would have been even closer.

[simpson96]

[scouter]

My point isn’t that additional, subjective analysis isn’t appropriate. I’m just saying that I don’t think I’m qualified to do it. I’m leaving that to people who know more about it. So I’m doing the objective part that I think will help them understand and elucidate what’s going on. Kind of like what you’re saying about things that I don’t know, such as the one Maine electoral vote, etc. I’m not going to count them myself until electoral-vote.com says they’re his. The point of this is to give you the ability to adjust these objective numbers, as you’ve done, bringing in subjective interpretation, and other facts and data that I don’t have.

[TaxPayer2000]

Thanks!

[TaxPayer2000]

Thanks!

[wyowolf]

Alabama Alaska etc going from Strongly to likely??? why??

[scouter]

Alabama Alaska etc going from Strongly to likely??? why??

That's what the data says. I don't know why. Perhaps because they're smaller states (population-wise) it doesn't take as many people to create a trend in one direction or the other. Electoral-Vote.com considers a state to be "likely" if the margin between the candidates is 5-9%. Ten percent or more is considered "strong." Here's the data for those two states:

Date	State	Trump	Clinton
8/25	Alabama	61%	38%
9/15	Alabama	51%	42%
8/25	Alaska	55%	42%
9/15	Alaska	38%	31%

[thingumbob]

Read on an earlier thread that RCP threw the 538 poll out of their averages so it would make Hillarys number go up instead of further down.

don't like the 538 libs but at least their numbers seemed to be objective.as opposed to RCP's crap filled averages. Desperation seems to be setting in.......insert gloating smile here.......

[Ozark Tom]

Prime the topic pump of social media and let loose through that avenue. The censorship in those venues is creating a self focus as the ‘Streisand effect’ did in the MSM.

Their reign of the conversation is a negative to be pushed hard and turned into a positive. Make them defend their playbook of media manipulation and partisanship. Allow a look behind the curtain, a revealing of the elite’s wizard of thought control.

[Twinkie]

VOTE TRUMP ANYWAY!!!