What Will Happen To China's Economy If Xi Jinping Continues To Lead

Forbes.com ^ | Aug, 30, 2016 | Douglas Bulloch

[jcon40]

For two decades or more, China was run by a committee; to be precise, the Standing Committee of the Politburo. There were influential power brokers lined up behind a central figure, but the understanding was always that collective decision-making predominated. Today, increasingly, the decisions and character of one man seem to make the running in China. What Xi wants, Xi gets. This transformation has a few symbolic moments but also perhaps a poorly remembered past, so accustomed have people become to the trajectory of post-Tiananmen China. The outward calm of the Jiang Zemin/Hu Jintao power transition has lulled people into believing in the existence of a powerful and long standing convention that authority in China glides effortlessly from one set of technocrats to the next.

[jcon40]

“......on growing doubts about the performance of China’s economy. The rising debts, the enormous overcapacity and the stubborn lack of domestic demand are reaching a point where painful decisions will need to be taken whoever is in charge.”

With global demand dropping and competition increasing from Viet Nam and other countries it makes one wonder why China is stirring up the mess in the South China Sea.

[W.]

Smells just like 0scumbag's modus operandi.

[buwaya]

Precisely because they have economic troubles and the competition for investment from the up and coming Asian countries, like Vietnam and PI.
If China can control the China Sea it can “tax” everyone from Japan to Malaysia.

[mindburglar]

Also, when you have 5% more males than females who are all spoiled princelings, you need to have outside distractions. If not you have domestic ones.

[ckilmer]

imho the steady militarization of China looks strikingly like what happened in Japan where they had 30 years of industrial growth at the turn of the 20th century. On a percentage basis it was far higher than Britian or America. That growth was similiar to that of Germany.

What the Japanese did was to shift their spending to the military to try to secure their growth. There was a struggle for power between the military and the civilian parts of the Japanese government. The military won.

What’s happening now is that the chinese military is gaining more power over foreign policy—while the Chinese factional system is dwindling. That means the longer Xi stays in power —the more the party’s power will shrink and the stronger will be the military.

If the Chinese get into a military confrontation and win —the power of the military will increase—relative to the party. If they get into a military confrontation and lose—the power of the party will decrease (and the military).

So essentially all military action for China is a lose lose proposition for the party.

But even if there is no military action and Xi rules for the next 15 years—or until he is 80—he will still retire with a shrunken CPC and an enlarged PLAN — so the relative power of the two institutions will have shifted in favor of PLAN and therefor war.

[jcon40]

Reminds me of what was said about Japan after the war.

Everything we gave them before the war .... Raw materials, economic growth ...we got back in the way of bombs.

[Laser_Ray]

I’m keeping an eye on their blue-water fleet. Closely. Because if they suddenly take a crash course in shipbuilding, it’s time for everyone who can to start emulating basic training in civilian life...because at that point someone high up will have at least given the “go” order for a build-up.

Because the thing is the Chinks, unlike the Norks, don’t build up something just to let it rust or sit as a showpiece. If they build it, they have plans to use it.