“......on growing doubts about the performance of China’s economy. The rising debts, the enormous overcapacity and the stubborn lack of domestic demand are reaching a point where painful decisions will need to be taken whoever is in charge.”
With global demand dropping and competition increasing from Viet Nam and other countries it makes one wonder why China is stirring up the mess in the South China Sea.
imho the steady militarization of China looks strikingly like what happened in Japan where they had 30 years of industrial growth at the turn of the 20th century. On a percentage basis it was far higher than Britian or America. That growth was similiar to that of Germany.
What the Japanese did was to shift their spending to the military to try to secure their growth. There was a struggle for power between the military and the civilian parts of the Japanese government. The military won.
What’s happening now is that the chinese military is gaining more power over foreign policy—while the Chinese factional system is dwindling. That means the longer Xi stays in power —the more the party’s power will shrink and the stronger will be the military.
If the Chinese get into a military confrontation and win —the power of the military will increase—relative to the party. If they get into a military confrontation and lose—the power of the party will decrease (and the military).
So essentially all military action for China is a lose lose proposition for the party.
But even if there is no military action and Xi rules for the next 15 years—or until he is 80—he will still retire with a shrunken CPC and an enlarged PLAN — so the relative power of the two institutions will have shifted in favor of PLAN and therefor war.