A Leading French Intellectual Explains: There is Danger of War in Europe

Russia Insider ^ | 30 August 2016 | Guillame Faye

[Lorianne]

Having failed to bait Russia in Eastern Ukraine and Crimea, NATO has now pivoted to the Baltics, where it is hell-bent on provoking a war with Russia. ___ There is a worrying risk of a military clash between NATO and Russia over the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, jammed between the Baltic countries and Poland, which are all new members of the EU and NATO. Military pressure keeps increasing in the Baltic region. The situation is far more dangerous than it was during the crisis of Eastern Ukraine and Crimea, because Kaliningrad is a Russian enclave at the core of the EU and NATO.

Officials and the Western media, as well as the governments of Poland and the three Baltic countries governments – and of course, Washington – are accusing Putin’s government of machiavellianism and ‘provocation’, seeking a casus belli with Kaliningrad. On the contrary, the Russians are the victims of a provocation: NATO is seeking an armed conflict, limited if possible, to be able to put down the regime of Putin that they hate so much. Will Kaliningrad be the pretext?

Poland and the Baltic governments are faking fear

The Kaliningrad province (Kaliningradskaïa Oblast) in the Northwest Federal District is a small Russian enclave between Lithuania and Poland. The main city, Kaliningrad, formerly Königsberg, was once a German city in East Prussia (Kant was from there). It has 450,000 inhabitants and it’s an interesting tourist and cultural destination.

In Vilnius and Warsaw, the authorities say they are worried about the ‘Russian military provocations’ in the form, according to them, of the militarization of Kaliningrad and the manoeuvrers of the Russian army. Former Lithuanian Prime Minister Andrius Kubilius, still an active politician, said he was ‘very worried about Russian military manoeuvrers so close to our borders’.

In Lithuania, where a protected rail corridor links Kaliningrad to Belarus and Russia, the authorities fear a ‘Russian provocation’. This same Andrius Kubilius, who also heads the Lithuanian Homeland Union (a centre-Right party), said in early April, ‘We fear a Russian provocation along the road and the rail corridors, or involving the high-voltage lines’. To deter this alleged Russian threat, which allows this faked fear to be carefully maintained in public opinion, the three Baltic governments formally requested an increase in the military presence of NATO on their soil. This is currently happening.

SNIP

[dp0622]

We need about 70 days to assure Russia we do not want a war.

Trumps wins, he tells vlad let’s stop the nonsense.

[Talisker]

How does this help Hillary or Obama?

[kearnyirish2]

Europe is at war with Islam; Russia is just a distraction in comparison.

[Jim Noble]

The potential Russo-German entente is obvious.

[rbmillerjr]

Russian propaganda.

We’re pivoting to Asia...sorry Russia.

[elcid1970]

Kaliningrad is the former east Prussian city of Koenigsberg.

[PGR88]

Europe is at war with Islam; Russia is just a distraction in comparison.

Europe is in the death throes of socialist, nanny-state, massive debt and central planning. Its immigration surge is a final last gasp attempt to support the immense weight of debt and social welfare by trying to prop up their dying demographics. Russia is indeed a distraction by Europe's socialist and soft-fascist elites and bankers to avoid showing people they themselves are the greatest threat to Europe.

[MrBambaLaMamba]

Solution to Current World Problem -

1 - Conscript the immigrants
2 - Start land war in Asia
3 - Conscript more immigrants
4 - Start new front in Asian land war
5 - Goto 3

[buwaya]

Now this is Russian propaganda. Nobody is harassing Kaliningrad.

[kearnyirish2]

Putin isn’t perfect but he seems determined to protect the interests of Russia and the Russian people (unfortunately, even when they live in neighboring countries). I see none of that patriotism in most Western European leaders...

[spel_grammer_an_punct_polise]

“There is Danger of War in Europe”

Well, DUH, Captain Obvious!

[nathanbedford]

As is so often the case, Jim, you have put the matter concisely and put the discussion onto the right track.

As one living in Germany I have been warning for more than a year that there is a real danger of a pact between Germany and Russia which, when combined with China and applied to the growing axis, or caliphate, supported by Russia in the Middle East, would utterly transform the balance of power in the world and render America's position extremely vulnerable. In other words, there is a real movement, although as yet a fringe movement, in Germany away from America and toward Russia.

Anyone who is inclined to cavalierly dismiss the dangers of such an event ought to reread their history and contemplate the immediate consequences of the Molotov/Ribbentrop pact of 1939.

The idea that Donald Trump or anyone else can simply tell Vladimir Putin that America does not want war and that will "stop the nonsense" is naïve and dangerous in the extreme. International power politics between superpowers armed with nuclear weapons simply does not work that way especially when our interlocutor across the table is a thug who has not the best interests of the Russian people but a revanchist, Hitler like, motivation driving his aggressions.

The best approach to Russia is to undermine its economy and therefore Putin's power position by opening drilling, fracking, distilling and transport of energy to drive down the world price of oil because the Russian economy is utterly dependent on $80 a barrel oil and cannot long survive in a world of $40 a barrel oil. If Putin does not have the cash flow to pay off his apparatchiks who support his power position, his regime must ultimately fall. Russians with whom we are in regular contact with here in Germany are reporting that the economic system in Russia is in trouble.

Meanwhile, Trump is quite right to restore American military power as a complementary policy with energy. A strong America will go a long way to reinforce loyalty of sensible Germans.

[dp0622]

I’ve been called much worse than that on a good day :)

To me, “stop the nonsense” is a threat.

I guess you southern folk or wherever you’re from take it differently.

I see you also felt the need to denigrate me to others also instead of posting to me directly like a man would.

It is what it is.

[nathanbedford]

I reacted to your two sentence reply which contained two propositions:

1.We need about 70 days to assure Russia we do not want a war.

2. Trumps wins, he tells vlad let’s stop the nonsense.

Anyone reading these two lines would assume the propositions were connected, that Trump, according to you, will tell Putin that America does not want a war and therefore Putin will change his behavior and cease his "nonsense."

If you intended some other meaning it is your responsibility to separate your two propositions, not the reader's responsibility to read your mind contrary to the plain meaning of what you write.

I see you also felt the need to denigrate me to others also instead of posting to me directly like a man would.

Rubbish! You were pinged and therefore proper etiquette was observed while your reply involved an ad homonym attack and violated propriety.

[DesertRhino]

” A strong America will go a long way to reinforce loyalty of sensible Germans. “

What is this “sensible German” of which you speak? I’ve never known or heard of one. Never in human history.

[MadMax, the Grinning Reaper]

More Putin KGB/SVB propaganda. Kaliningrad is in no danger of being taken from the Russkies, and a few thousand NATO troops in Poland and the Baltic States aren’t going to stop a Russian/Soviet invasion.

Putin is playing with fire and someone is going to get burnt. Under Obama, it will be the US and what few allies we have left. Under Hillary, it will be the US and what few allies we have left.

Under Kerry and Ash Carter, the same results.

[VanShuyten]

Although Putin has whined about the treatment of ethnic Russians in the Baltic states, I agree that no one is going to attack anyone there, with the possible exception of the nutjobs in Belarus, ruled for over 20 years by Lukashenko, and they could attack in any direction just because they’re nutjobs.

[Peter ODonnell]

I interpret this sort of stuff as lone wolf analysis by individuals nostalgic for the Cold War and the old Soviet Union, pushed forward by chit-chat mischievously promoted by Russian officials perhaps just for roughly the same reasons.

Like a mist that suddenly disappears on an autumn morning, these scenarios can sound plausible but I doubt that anything of this sort is actually happening. After Crimea and east Ukraine, most of the rest of this stuff is conjecture and nobody really has the level of insanity required to try any of it out in the real world.

Things will muddle along about as they are now until Trump and Putin can have a chat. Then we might see something new and hopefully better than we’ve been seeing.

But as for NATO trying to provoke Russia into a ground war, that is just plain nuts. How would any member of NATO benefit from such a thing, we would lose and many of our resources would be destroyed in the process. And all for no reason whatsoever.

[laconic]

I am strongly in favor of an American volunteer expeditionary force that will fight for Kaliningrad, to be led by William Kristol, George Will and the armchair warriors from the National Review. That way, the US would have plausible deniability, the neocons/never Trumpers would get their own little war that they are so lustful for, and the rest of us could sit back and laugh.